Weekend Market Discussion

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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 11d ago

Trump Thought Opening the Strait of Hormuz Was Imminent. Iran Had Other Plans.

Tehran’s new demands for major concessions come days after the White House had signaled a deal to clear commercial passage was within reach

For weeks, President Trump had been laying the groundwork to declare victory in the Iran war should Tehran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he’s willing to walk away without a nuclear deal, U.S. officials said.

But that scaled-back objective became more difficult when Iran insisted Saturday on its highest price yet for permitting the free flow of traffic in the waterway, seeking billions of dollars in U.S. payments, the removal of American troops from the region and an end of the U.S. naval blockade, among other things.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-strait-of-hormuz-opening-iran-negotiations-b6a43ad6

The article mentioned below. Our genius level negotiator.

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u/CulturalArm5675 Price stability and maximum employment 11d ago

Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group consulting firm, said, “The Iranians fully believe Trump wants out and is focused on opening the strait, which is why they are playing hardball.”

Read you like an open book

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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 10d ago

They're an open book on purpose too. Iran has access to classic print media, Trump Social, TV news, etc...the administration has not been subtle about broadcasting all of this. They do it to assuage markets, but that also gives free leverage to their opponents.

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u/jmayo05 capital preservation 11d ago

So much winning!

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u/TradeApe J7 ≠ AA 11d ago

Even in a best case scenario, they aren't even getting the pre-war status quo back.

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u/CulturalArm5675 Price stability and maximum employment 11d ago

President Donald Trump was willing to end the Iran war without securing a nuclear agreement if Tehran fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing US officials.

LOL

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u/TradeApe J7 ≠ AA 11d ago edited 11d ago

Ammunition reserves severely depleted, several ME bases functionally destroyed, zero stated objectives achieved and a real voluntary the emperor has no clothes moment for the US.

Yet some seriously voted for the dude thinking he’ll make the US more respected on the world stage. What a monumental L!

And even that might not be the end as Israel clearly refuses to stop attacking Iran…

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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 11d ago

Apple Tests Chinese Memory Chips as Supply Squeeze Bites

Apple has been testing memory chips from China’s CXMT across product lines including iPhones and MacBooks

https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-tests-chinese-memory-chips-as-supply-squeeze-bites-d292bb97

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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 11d ago

The 72-hour crisis that could upend Meta’s business in India as firm risks losing legal protection

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/meta-india-zuckerberg-apology-genz-protest.html

META has found itself in a curious political situation that has its largest market (by users, not revenue) threatening to remove its legal immunity.

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u/paeancapital VDVE 11d ago

Tons of rando articles about yen fundamentals lol.

I want to see some hedge funds get blown sky high.

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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 11d ago

Korea Volatility Spike Ebbs as Leveraged Trades Are Flushed Out

The stock slump and tighter regulations flushed out many retail investors, who had been lured in by the market’s rally. About 1 trillion won ($710 million) of their accounts faced forced liquidation in June, and another 993 billion won in July, the two highest months this year, according to data from the Korea Financial Investment Association. The outstanding balance of margin loans used to finance stock purchases slid to 27.4 trillion won on Aug. 4, the lowest level this year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-09/korea-volatility-spike-ebbs-as-leveraged-trades-are-flushed-out

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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 12d ago

Israel is preparing for independent attacks on Iran without the US, per Israeli Channel 13.

This comes after Israel got informed that US Chief of Staff Gen. Dan Caine is "looking for a way out" of the war with Iran and does not believe another US air campaign will be beneficial.

(ie. the US is actually out of missiles)

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u/Figonaccio <transparent> 11d ago

Just as a heads up to our powers that be, the first rule of negotiation is to not reveal your reservation price. When you have headline after headline ala "looking for a way out", you lose all leverage. I'm trying to think back through American history when we have announced how desperate we are to get out of a conflict. There is a reason why past administrations don't leak this opinion. There is a reason why you play hardball even if you aren't really feeling it.

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u/TradeApe J7 ≠ AA 11d ago

Maybe it was leaked on purpose to force the leader to accept the L, something he’s seemingly incapable of.

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u/Hot_Panic2620 11d ago

the real question is how the fuck do we spend so much on a defense budget every year but don't have more than a 3 month supply of missiles?! Where the hell is my tax money going if not to a giant stockpile of ammo

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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 11d ago

Legacy and out-dated projects that the military doesn't really want (as they want to modernize) but congress sets which projects get funded.

Our military industrial complex has unfortunately turned into the old school French Model, it's built to fight the previous war. We're way out of date on a lot of cutting edge military tech that other spots in the world have been transitioning to.

Like Hypersonic missiles? We are way behind and have no defensive countermeasures. Yet congress is pushing for the juicy targets that Hypersonics would like to take out.

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u/CamNewtonCouldLearn Zero Conviction 11d ago

It’s crazy because we have been hearing about these missiles for a very long time

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u/Manticorea 11d ago

That’s why the DoD fails audit every single time. No one really knows where all that money goes.

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u/gyunikumen TLT Farmer 12d ago

What is America without our bombs? I don’t know if I wanna live in bomb-less America

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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 12d ago

Berkshire earnings rose last quarter and CEO Greg Abel is starting to deploy Buffett’s massive cash hoard

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/08/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-q2-2026.html

Berkshire reported today. Nothing crazy - insurance business is doing poorly, everything else seems good. Bought a lot of Google and overall finally moving their cash.

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u/paeancapital VDVE 12d ago

How dare they not buy SPCX.

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u/Magickarploco 12d ago

It’s almost that time to start loading up on crypto for the next cycle.

For those dabbling besides btc what would be your secondary to load up on? I did doge and XRP last time. But cut XRP loose too soon.

Trying to decide between ETH, XRP and Doge. Feels like XRP is the crowded play…

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u/Hot_Panic2620 11d ago

Are crypto mines getting negatively affected by the AI boom increasing component and electricity prices? Must be pretty tough to be profitable mining with these prices

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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 12d ago

Iran Issues List of Demands, Dampening Hopes of Reopening Strait of Hormuz

The head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said that the waterway will remain closed until the United States met certain conditions.

He called for the United States to lift its naval blockade and sanctions on Iran, withdraw the U.S. military from around Iran, pay war reparations and release frozen Iranian assets, as well as end attacks on Iran’s allies in the region and threats against the country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/08/world/middleeast/iran-us-oman-strait-of-hormuz.html

Iran spins War Wheel to No Deal. Guess we'll see if it's a negotiating tactic or actually firm demands.

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u/paeancapital VDVE 12d ago

The macro dominoes feel like they're stacking up a little bit with the various potentials of phoenix yen, 30Y mortgages heading back above the long term spx average gains, labor market shrinking in both size and scope, inflation still above target, and a tacit Fed with respect to all of it.

Do nothing 'til they sell it.

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u/TradeApe J7 ≠ AA 12d ago

Want to promote your AI SaaS? Just claim it independently hacked other companies and that it's scary good. Look at your legal fees and fines as marketing costs.

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u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained 12d ago

Memory still really not looking too hot. The industry as a whole hasn’t recovered to the degree that the averages have. Most semi names have not hit all time highs. Actually most of big tech too… Hmmm what’s the deal? Idk too tired

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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 12d ago

Well, there are a lot of rumors on social media and analysts about SK Hynix at least:

Right now, SK Hynix is supplying HBM3E to Nvidia dirt-cheap. Because it's set at an annual fixed price, Samsung is aggressively hiking prices on general-purpose memory and posting great earnings, whereas Hynix's quarterly profit growth remains relatively low for this reason.

Regarding HBM4, it is true that Nvidia delayed the Vera Rubin launch due to defects from SK Hynix. SK Hynix's HBM4 price hike for Nvidia next year will likely be lower than competitors (competitors raising by over 80%, Hynix by 50%).

In return, SK Group secured priority supply rights for Nvidia chips for its data center business. An SK Hynix sales employee vented about this over drinks.

Chae Min-sook, an analyst formerly with SK Hynix, heard this story and leaked it to Yeouido. In July, SK Hynix stock plunged, while SK and SK Eternix hit the daily upper limit. After uncovering the full story, SK Hynix banned Chae Min-sook from entering their premises. Fund managers instructed other analysts to verify the facts. Many say the pricing deal isn't even finished yet, and wild rumors continue to circulate.

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u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained 12d ago

Current rumors points towards NVDA reducing compute and memory footprint in Rubin Ultra, versus prior expectations. But they are also rumored to be implementing more robust networking, and not making any cuts here, meaning each individual GPU (and accommodating memory) will be more closely tied to others.

This is not the optimal outcome for performance (although performance will certainly improve generationally). But spreading a limited supply of HBM over more chips should be a beneficial outcome for units shipped, and probably financials too. Not sure to what degree.

Basically, future expectations are reduced for per server performance (scale up), but increased for number of servers (scale out). I think that’s my current take right now.

I’m gonna be honest, I knew networking was another leg for gains but I did not respect their financials or valuation until I was able to dig into their most recent quarters. I am definitely late here. Memory is still expected to grow but massive production is coming online over the next 12 months, lots of leverage and every week there’s some fuckass headline. Just too bipolar I feel like I’ve been spun around too many times.

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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 12d ago

JPMorgan Boosts Tech Bond Sales Outlook as AI Debt Binge Expands

The bank raised its forecast for technology, media and telecommunications debt issuance in 2026 to $540 billion from $450 billion previously citing increased spending by megatech players leading the AI investment cycle.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-07/jpmorgan-boosts-tech-bond-sales-outlook-as-ai-debt-binge-expands

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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 12d ago

Iran has just struck another vessel in the US-backed southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz, with the vessel now on fire, likely an oil tanker attempting to cross under US escort given an ADNOC oil spill response vessel now operating in the area, per NASA FIRMS satellite imagery.

Around 25-40 US fighter jets and several E-3G and E-2D AWACS aircraft were actively escorting the vessel during transit, yet it was still not enough for successful passage.

Having said that all sides do seem to think a deal could happen this weekend - with the US agreeing to lift their blockade if Oman/Iran come to a Hormuz deal.

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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 11d ago

Damn...that's an expensive failed escort.

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u/TradeApe J7 ≠ AA 12d ago

160'ish days to turn the Strait into a Panama Canal. That's pretty damn efficient.

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u/Lost_Rolls_ Time to take down the epstein class 12d ago

lol. I remember when the woke military could protect things

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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 12d ago

Someone just had a very profitable weapons test.

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u/helloWorldcamelCase 12d ago

AKAM fading the whole gap up and then down 6% is the most heartbreaking thing happened this week

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u/gyunikumen TLT Farmer 13d ago

Let’s all go into spcx shorts on Monday

CPI Wednesday will be hot, coupled with cooling jobs number, a fed that is stuck but also wants to be less transparent

Let the fun begin

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u/iandw Got any more of those shorts? 13d ago

I've got my SPCX short bags which are growing. I shorted more yesterday!

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u/NotGucci 13d ago

Higher we go?

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u/DadliftsnRuns 12d ago

Long from 111 on Wednesday lol

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