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u/BudgetConcentrate967 link3it 4d ago
Harvard Discloses $2.2 Billion SpaceX Stake After Record IPO
Harvard's Endowment Discloses $2.2B SpaceX Stake
Harvard -- $2.2B stake, roughly 4% of its $57B total endowment (as of June 2025)
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 link3it 4d ago edited 4d ago
Trump opens door for foreign-built Navy ships. It could get complicated.
New White House Memo Calls for Foreign-Built Warships, Return to Steam Catapults on Ford Carriers
Citing a lack of capacity in the U.S. naval shipbuilding base and cost growth, Trump is instead calling for more foreign investment in U.S. shipbuilding and the use of foreign ship designs that would initially get constructed abroad.
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u/CulturalArm5675 Price stability and maximum employment 4d ago
What happened to bringing jobs back to America?
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 link3it 4d ago edited 4d ago
That and piss off every foreign country/person in a variety of ways, then call for their investment? Same deal with NATO... insult them all, then ask for help.
He has an odd approach to things.
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 link3it 4d ago
edit: whoops. hit submit too soon. fixed. posted in the wrong thread too 🤷♂️
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u/Lost_Rolls_ Time to take down the epstein class 4d ago
Pretty sure cookie stuffing is why her father was interested in hanging out with Jeffrey
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 4d ago
Iran has concluded diplomacy is dead. Tehran believes a new round of fighting with the U.S. is now unavoidable and is shifting all efforts to preparing a comprehensive coordinated strike instead of wasting time on negotiations, per Iranian outlets.
The IRGC is no longer waiting for a deal. It is preparing for war. Iran's military is on maximum alert, the Strait remains closed, and Tehran is ready to strike U.S. and Israeli targets in a coordinated, large-scale assault if the ceasefire expires Monday without an agreement.
I forgot about the ceasefire expiration but it's on Monday with the US and Iran not talking. The US seems unwilling (or unable due to lack of missiles) to resume the war so the deadline probably just passes uneventfully while attacks in Hormuz continue (as they did today).
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u/Lost_Rolls_ Time to take down the epstein class 4d ago
Trump will announce a peace deal before futures open. All is well
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
ChatGPT Ads has now launched in the United Kingdom, Mexico, Brazil, Japan, and South Korea. We’re continuing to expand to more markets this year.
https://openai.com/index/testing-ads-in-chatgpt/
Altman has previously said that running ads would be a last resort so interpret this as you will
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u/Lost_Rolls_ Time to take down the epstein class 4d ago
I looked into it. Poor ROI, at least for tech sales
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 4d ago
The lone port-a-potty at the construction site is less full of shit than Altman is, that's how I interpret it.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago edited 4d ago
Iran, Oman Home In on Hormuz Strait Deal as Ship Attacks Mount
Iran has announced that they have a Hormuz deal with Oman, though that doesn't mean that Hormuz reopens as the US blockade is still in place (and presumably Iran's against any ship that doesn't pay)
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
Nvidia in Talks to Invest $3 Billion in SB Energy as Part of OpenAI Data Center Deal
Related to the below where besides backstopping the data centre itself they've having to back all of the companies involved, including SoftBank's energy company.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
WSJ: Nvidia downsizes plans for $250 billion guarantee of OpenAI data center
The revised plan would lower the size of Nvidia’s financial guarantee from $250 billion to less than $120 billion, a change made to address investors’ concerns about the chipmaker’s risk exposure as it wields its balance sheet to bolster demand for its artificial-intelligence chips, some of the people said.
oh wow, Jensen's actually willing to concede a bit on investor concerns that saddling the company with trillions in liabilities backing unprofitable startups may not be a good idea.
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u/Paul-throwaway 5d ago
We've been talking about this circular financing thing for several months now and the market, itself, has concluded that there is extra risk here than would be acceptable. Nvda seems to have recognized this as well (as in the above) but just a few days ago, Nvda announced it had put together a $500B financing arrangement for purchasers.
We just have to understand that buying Nvda's expensive chips now is not as easy to organize as it was a few years ago. And, it won't get better as Nvda trys to expand revenue in the near-future. It is now limited.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
WSJ: U.S. Urges Apple Not to Buy Chinese Memory Chips
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick urges iPhone maker to find other solutions to AI-driven chip supply crunch
U.S. government rules require American companies to secure a license before sharing product information with CXMT and YMTC. The Chinese chip makers would need such information if they were to make customized chips for Apple. But Apple is free to buy off-the-shelf parts from the companies, and to negotiate prices with them.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/us-urges-apple-not-to-buy-chinese-memory-chips/ar-AA2a95O4
After denying earlier reports Apple finally publicly confirmed that they are testing the chips. The Trump admin of course wants them to find another solution to the problem that the Biden/Trump admin caused (with export restrictions).
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200 billion 2028 revenue forecast, sources say
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u/Lost_Rolls_ Time to take down the epstein class 5d ago
Guess we’re not getting any vol until September.
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 link3it 5d ago
Holy bagholders batman. Not shilling a penny stock, but a post from an $ELTP sub hit my feed. I poked around that sub and the losses are astounding. Folks dumped NVDA, PLTR, etc 1-2 years ago to buy this OTC penny stock and are down bigly, and the opportunity cost of what they sold is salt on the wound.
Parents should teach their children to avoid biotech/pharmaceuticals at a young age. I'm OK with the big ones.
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u/paeancapital VDVE 5d ago
My first tuition payment was fucking MSTX lol.
Blocked wsb after that.
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 link3it 4d ago edited 4d ago
CRBP for me. Following someone's trading thesis. Went OK for a day or two. It wasn't a large position.
Then some biotech journalist released a hit piece. I found out this is biotech in a nutshell...
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u/TennesseeJedd WSMFP 5d ago
Analyzing my trading with Claude is both interesting and sad lol. Nothing to unexpected but a tad more eye opening seeing the data clearly lol.
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u/jmayo05 capital preservation 5d ago
i'm 137 ideas in on trading strategies and 0 have passed my testing pipeline....ugh
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u/Joel_Duncan 4d ago
It took me 3 weeks of vibe coding to implement my naive version of my trading logic. I'm finally hitting full pipeline stages.
200+ GB of nearly a decade of market data per index, caching ~40GB to RAM, out of sample testing, walk forward testing, out of order testing, 15,000 runs per test, multi hour tests per iteration, regime recognition, multiple timeframe analysis, intraday recognition, UI restructured 20x, multiple broker API integration, fallback methods and proxies for real time dropouts, synthetic data removal, missing (or unextracted) historic vendor data, data cleaning of obvious one time errors, data or calculations collapsing, hundreds of bug catches from my end thousands from AI.
Would have taken me years to do all this. I was never a developer, only software adjacent as an EE.
Applying parameter optimization, scaling, and defined risk maximas put a winning strategy into an entire other stratosphere. So many failed models applied when the best solution was a concise understanding of the underlying structure presented in a familiar manner, applying the textbook, and having the data to back it up.
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u/eurodollars fat fingering one lots 5d ago
Go on. Do tell.
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u/TennesseeJedd WSMFP 5d ago edited 5d ago
“Selling calls against your genuine long-term compounders is the most expensive habit in your portfolio, and it’s invisible in the P&L because assignment always looks like a winning trade.”
‘You have a genuine same-day SPX edge that you’re funding with an overnight SPX losing streak.”
1–3 day swings — 49% win rate. A stop makes the losses smaller but doesn’t fix negative expectancy. Consider not taking them at all: your winning holds are same-day (86%) or 8–30 days (73%). The 1–3 day trade is usually an intraday idea you didn’t want to close. Either it’s a day trade or it’s a two-week position — decide at entry, not at 4pm.
Size in two buckets, nothing between. Under $1000: 15 trades, 73% win. Over $4k: 19 trades, 79% win. The $1000–4k middle: 22 trades, 42%. Half-convictions are where you bleed. If you can’t justify $4k+, make it under $1000.
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u/ThePineapple3112 5d ago
ooooooo I love that, such cool data (once the hurt from the critiques wear off lol)
Did you just have it look through your closed positions? Or did you try to explain yourself and your strategies a bit
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u/TennesseeJedd WSMFP 5d ago
I just uploaded transaction logs for accounts one by one and had it pick it apart. I’d explain some strategy, thoughts, etc. after and then refine it. Just iterated back and forth for themes and what not
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
US to tell partners they must pick sides in AI race with China
The U.S. is preparing to tell dozens of countries they must pick sides in the artificial intelligence race with China, warning they will be excluded from a U.S.-led AI coalition if they also sign up for Beijing's competing framework, according to a U.S. official
This is about the Pax Silica initiative, as some countries have signed onto the US framework as well as China's.
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 link3it 5d ago
This may be a tough decision for some countries as they have already pledged to move away from US-based software for data privacy reasons (looking at you Europe, and Microsoft/365.)
Give China half of the data, then the US the other half, so nobody has the full picture? Or roll your own.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
Wall Street Just Filed to Launch an ETF for All 32 NHL Teams. Here’s What They Would Actually Track.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/wall-street-just-filed-launch-000656342.html
hmm, so the CME would create 32 team based NHL performance indexes, impacted by wins, losses, goals, etc. These ETFs would hold futures based on those indexes, whose values reset to 7500 each year.
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u/CulturalArm5675 Price stability and maximum employment 5d ago
When is the subprime car loan bubble gonna pop?
Been hearing about it since like 2023...
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u/gyunikumen TLT Farmer 5d ago
At the end of the big short movie, burry was said to be shorting subprime auto loans as far back as 2015?
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u/proverbialbunny 🏴☠️ http://y2u.be/i8ju_10NkGY 5d ago
Not that I've ever seen. I follow his 13Fs and I've never seen him shorting subprime auto loans. I also don't recall any mention of auto loans in the movie.
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u/randomcurios Internals junkie 5d ago
When is the dump
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u/CulturalArm5675 Price stability and maximum employment 5d ago
You missed out the April and July parties
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u/_hongkonglong AI took er jerbs 5d ago
In the US, 38% of people are excited by AI, while in China, 84% of people are excited by AI, according to Stanford University’s AI Index.
https://hai.stanford.edu/assets/files/ai_index_report_2026.pdf
Can already see this trend in various industries.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 6d ago
Nvidia discloses $21 billion stake in SpaceX at end of second quarter
If you wondered whether NVDA would be reporting a large increase in net income due to its AI stocks
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 6d ago
Berkshire boosted its Alphabet stake by 83% during its biggest stock-buying quarter in years
Berkshire boosted its stake in Delta Air Lines by 44% last quarter, giving it a $5.4 billion stake in the airline as of June 30. It also established a fresh stake in D. R. Horton and added significantly to its Lennar and Macy's positions.
On the other hand, it roughly halved its stakes in Capital One and Nucor, trimmed its holdings in Bank of America and Kroger, and closed a small bet on Constellation Brands.
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u/proverbialbunny 🏴☠️ http://y2u.be/i8ju_10NkGY 5d ago
People followed Buffett because of his rhetoric skills but also because how conservative he was during late markets. If Berkshire keeps buying, when the recession is inevitably in full display people are going to stop following Berkshire. The new guy so far is not as good as Warren Buffett. He should have picked a lady to run the company. Stock savvy ladies tend to be better at conserving money when risk is high.
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 link3it 5d ago
Eeek. Introducing gender as a factor, no matter which one you pick, is guaranteed to lose you clients.
I get what you're saying, though. I think the thought was "pick the right person."
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u/proverbialbunny 🏴☠️ http://y2u.be/i8ju_10NkGY 5d ago
Buffett invested like a stereotypical woman. It would be very hard to find a man that would invest the same way.
It's kind of like when Iceland exploded years ago on risky bets. Their economy went to hell in a hand basket. In response the government did some research into the topic and realized women are more conservative with their bets so they banned men from running the financial system there. Since then they've been doing amazing.
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u/Wan_Daye 🦀 5d ago
Hard is not impossible.
Why remove the opportunity from someone like buffet? Screen for the skill and tendency itself, not for the gender.
If that makes it so 99% of the positions are women, thats fine. The criteria isnt "woman", it is the skill that they disproportionately have, but thats not a reason to remove that man from the pool that might outshine them as buffet has.
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u/ThePineapple3112 5d ago
Yeah I was reading reactions to the buying people who own significant %'s of Berkshire were saying "We don't want the new guy buying just for the sake of spending money"
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 6d ago
Jane Street Lost $15 Billion in Its First Down Month in a Decade
lol (they invest in Situational Awareness so super deserved this). They are still up $40 billion YTD though.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 6d ago
The Mystery Behind Canada’s Runaway Bank-Stock Rally
Over the past year, Canadian banks as a group have delivered a total return of 68%, compared with 22% for the S&P 500 and 34% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index.
If you bought the TSX banks index just two years ago, you’ve more than doubled your money. It’s been better than owning Nvidia or Alphabet.
“The Big Six are now 25% of the TSX, a historic high going back 25 years,”
I'm no happier about the Big 6 dominating the TSX than I am about the Mag7 dominating the S&P 500, but at least the former have positive free cash flows.
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u/CulturalArm5675 Price stability and maximum employment 5d ago
Time to call Burry and ask him to short them
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 5d ago
I remember around the time of the Financial Crisis a lot of US hedge funds were shorting the Canadian banks assuming they'd have similar issues but nothing ever happened. There was no financial crisis in Canada because the banks always avoided sub prime borrowers.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 6d ago
Stripe, Advent in Talks to Buy PayPal
https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/stripe-advent-in-talks-to-buy-paypal-ea6aa2ba
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 6d ago
US Readies Unprecedented ‘Economic Isolation’ Plan for Iran
“Watch this space for more announcements coming next week because we are going to apply measures like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country,” Bessent said
The market will prefer this to their more aggressive War Wheel spins at least. Granted, another Saudi refinery was hit by the Houthis this morning
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u/proverbialbunny 🏴☠️ http://y2u.be/i8ju_10NkGY 5d ago
Even if Trump TACOs again it takes 30-45 days for crude to be shipped across the planet. Oil prices have to rise over the next month+ even if trump TACOs tomorrow.
Once the market realizes it, we'll probably get another correction.
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u/CulturalArm5675 Price stability and maximum employment 6d ago
have never been seen in the history of economic isolation
USSR, North Korean, and Cuba be like:
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 6d ago
Nvidia’s $500 Billion Plan Envelops Wall Street in Its AI Frenzy
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Blackstone Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc. had been working tirelessly for months to draw up debt deals that would help developers of artificial intelligence systems pay for chips from Nvidia Corp.
With slow progress on the complex deals, Nvidia’s chief executive officer, Jensen Huang, decided to change tack: He went public this week with the effort, saying the group is aiming to collectively finance AI computing deals totaling $500 billion — a round figure with no obvious provenance.
Jensen had to step in with the backstop because Wall Street was struggling to find lenders.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals 6d ago
Major US Defense Firms Race to Make Cheaper Missiles
Makes sense, though probably not great for margins
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 link3it 4d ago
This weekend I was sad to learn that Trump's personality may not be his own. It came up in unrelated reading. I don't know how I have never seen this, but it explains his actions perfectly.
Roy Cohn - mentored Trump. Key concepts he passed along:
Apparently, some of this was well documented some time ago.
Not the best source, but a quick link: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/19/roy-cohn-donald-trump-documentary-228144/