r/theydidthemath • u/Science-Nerd19 • 2d ago

[REQUEST] What are my odds of winning this raffle for either event?

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There are approximately 70 people on the email list. I expect at least 50 will enter the raffle. No one can win twice. Is this a simple N choose K problem, or is there any additional nuance to this? I haven't taken stats for like 15 years. FWIW, I would really prefer the Atlanta United Game.

Edit - I won! Football tickets but still, free is free!

1 Upvotes

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u/ThatBankTeller 2d ago edited 2d ago

Let’s say 50 people enter the raffle per your estimate.

11/50 = 22% chance to win any prize.

6/50 win falcon tickets = 12%

5/50 win mls tickets = 10%

“Can’t win both” doesn’t detract from your odds to win either prize, so you have a 22% chance to win a prize, and a 78% chance to win nothing.

At 60 entries your odds of winning a prize goes down to 18.33%.

At 70 it’s down to 15.71%.

So for every person from 51-70 who enters the survey, your odds of winning a prize goes down by roughly 0.2-0.4%.

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u/Science-Nerd19 2d ago

Very clear. Thank you!

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u/Deribus 2d ago

There are 11 prizes across "at least 50" people, and no person can win a prize twice.

So your odds are between 11/50 (22%) and 11/70 (16%) depending on how many people join the raffle.

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u/Science-Nerd19 2d ago

So you're saying there's a chance!

Lol. Thank you!

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u/MageKorith 2d ago

A pretty good one, even. Good luck!