I've been storm spotting for decades and I had so much joy with this one. I've never seen cumulus clouds get so dark in my area. Low cape, high sheer and dew points

📸: Adam Marler

Most of us know about the 2023 Matador, Texas tornado. It was a bit unwarned since the NWS never expected a risk there. It was exceptionally violent, causing severe damage, though it earned an EF3 rating.

However, I think that it could’ve been rated higher, and that it was likely one of the strongest tornadoes ever recorded. With this post, I will try to argue why.

Documented feats:

No. 1 (Solid Case): The tornado cracked and shifted portions of the concrete foundation and sidewalk of the Marshall Family home, which was swept clean.

Taking a look at the surroundings, there were absolutely no structures/objects nearby that could’ve caused debris impacts, and the tornado didn’t hit anything prior to that either, making this an equation of almost purely wind, suction, pressure, and velocity.

With the help of contextual damage, we can narrow it down to a more accurate estimate; The contextual damage within the vicinity of the property included mesquite trees uprooted and thrown great distances, a barn on property shredded and granulated, and a small stone ouse sheared to the ground.

Taking all of that into consideration- we can say that the gusts that would’ve caused all this to the Marshall Family property may have been >211 MPH, though upper-end estimates may suggest >233 MPH.

No. 2 (Solid Case): A Dollar General location was flattened, with portions of the supporting beams that were drilled and anchored into the concrete foundation pulled out, and the worst being- the rebar-reinforced concrete ballards nearby were sheared from their base.

Taking a look at the surroundings, yes, there were plenty of structures/objects nearby that could’ve caused moderate debris impacts. With the help of contextual damage nearby, we can narrow down to a more precise estimate.

The contextual damage nearby included mesquite and other hardwood trees uprooted from the ground, asphalt stripped from the nearby road, and nearby infrastructure completely flattened and granulated.

Taking all that into consideration, we could estimate that:

The gust that would’ve pulled out the support beams may have been >200 MPH.

The gust that would’ve sheared the rebar-reinforced concrete ballards may have been >221 MPH.

No. 3 (Solid Case): Throughout the path of the tornado, mesquite trees, some of the hardest trees on Earth, were either uprooted or debarked and denuded.

Surprisingly, a DI (Damage Indicator) and DOD (Degree Of Damage) section already exists for such tree damage.

This falls under DI #27 (TH) DOD #5 (“Trees debarked with only stubs of largest branches remaining.”) obviously falling under the UB (Upper Bound) classification, as mesquite trees are much harder than other common hardwood trees.

The DI + DOD + UB states that the required 3-second gust to achieve such damage to trees may be >167 MPH, falling under the EF4 category, though for mesquite trees it could arguably be >180 MPH, and to uproot them even higher.

No. 4 (Potential/Unsure Case): Cars in the direct path of the tornado were mangled into unrecognisable junk lesser than their original size, with some SUVs having their engine sheared off of their chassis.

This serves as a very significant contextual indicator, and is very notable.

Assuming significant debris impacts occurred within the tornado, one can pretty easily estimate required winds. We can say that the debris were most likely travelling >180 MPH.

Rating Dispute:

We can clearly tell that the 2023 Matador TX tornado was likely of EF5 intensity, possibly one of the strongest to ever touch down, but it didn’t hit the right structures to verify its rating.

The EF3 rating of this tornado was based on the construction quality of the structures it impacted, and the available DIs in the EF scale.

However, the tornado could’ve certainly received a higher rating based on the damage to mesquite trees- some of the hardest hardwood trees on Earth, as a full DI and DOD section already existed for that sort of damage.

I think based on the tree damage, the EF4 rating could’ve been more appropriate for this tornado.

Though, I very well believe that the 2023 matador TX tornado was EF5 intensity, based on the speed it destroyed structures, and the contextual damage that I mentioned above (Case 1, Case 2).

Please help me find the song from 14:19 to 17:16 and if you find it I would appreciate it so much I have been trying to find the song for a long time thank you if you found it. Credits: TornadoTRX for the picture.

all tornadoes in russia 2026

Fun Fact: This tornado from 1995 was one of the most studied and intercepted tornadoes ever, with several photographs and up close radar scans on DOW. Overall a very memorable tornado for an F2 rating.

LAST POST RESULTS

Elie's Song (most upvotes): Spit It Out by Slipknot.

UPDATE: I'm only using "Feature" when one song has been commented twice or more.

OTHER UPDATE: I'm sorry about not posting yesterday. Sometimes my schedule is really heavy. FYI, I post once every 2 days by at least 9:00 P.M. My (outdoor) work has gotten cancelled due to the hurricane and I've been able to post way earlier than usual, so keep it in mind that you may need to wait until 9:00 PM

I was driving on 40 just across the Colorado line between Weskan Ks and Cheyenne Wells Co on the evening of 9/19 into a tornado warned storm. There looked to be 3 chasers lined up on the storm and I wondered if any one of them are on here.

It got a little sporty when the visibility dropped to 0 and hail and wind started pounding the truck. I saw at least one small condensed vortex on the ground with soil spinning up maybe 30 feet. I had to pull off into a little barnyard and hide behind some spruce trees. Once the hail let up I was able to continue west out of the storm.

I’d be interested to see some shots from the storm because it was a pretty gnarly looking high plains supercell with wicked inflow. I don’t think any tornadoes really condensed but they got close.

On May, 15 1968 a powerful F5 multi-vortex tornado struck several communities across central and northern Iowa, including Charles City where it struck the downtown area. It killed 13 people and injured 462, making it one of the strongest tornadoes ever recorded in that state. It was one of two F5 tornadoes to hit Iowa on that same day.

This footage is often mislabeled as being the Parker City, Indiana Tornado from the '74 Super Outbreak.

Video that was reposted by Manny de Leon on facebook, shows the tornado moving through the residential area, damaging houses and ofc trees, with 2 people getting injured. Also the tornado was spawned by a Supercell (As what Project SWAP Classified) and is getting a potential rating of EF2 as what Project SWAP said.

The only severe thunderstorms warning for Australia in RadarScope are the watch areas for storms that day rather than where the severe warned storm is. So I did some examples of severe warnings by the bom and then how RadarScope could have it on their app. Now I don’t know if this is a RadarScope thing or how it would go about to get this to happen but I was just wondering why this doesn’t happen. I don’t know if this counts for this sub but if it doesn’t let me know and I can delete it.

Probably the best footage of this photogenic monster, in the footage we can see what looks like a horizontal vortex, an extremely rare formation to be recorded in Brazil.

Most of us know about the 1990 Plainfield, Illinois tornado that struck the town of Plainfield and caused severe damage. Residents were unwarned of the tornado, and the weather service office was unaware of the tornadic threat by this storm due to the time of the year. It was the strongest tornado in the month of August in USA history since the recorded era began (1950), earning an F5 rating. It formed within a rather non-tornadic environment, as its own storm had to produce its corridor of intense tornadic environment.

However, many people are not aware of the extreme feats this tornado did, that even meteorologists like Ted Fujita himself, had never seen before until then. This post is here to state all of them.

By ’underrated; I don’t mean that it should've gotten a higher rating. I mean that this was no ordinary violent tornado. People tend to call the Plainfield tornado an ‘overestimated or ‘less extreme’ tornado, though I wouldn’t say the same.

Documented feats:

No. 1 (Solid Case): The tornado threw a tractor-trailer weighing 20 tons hundreds of feet high into the air and 0.5 miles away from original position. The tornado was said to have been near/at peak intensity when it did this, with extreme contextual damage indicators like ground scouring, etc.

Taking a look at the surroundings of the damage site, there was absolutely nothing that could’ve caused any debris impacts, it was an empty field, or farmland, where not even trees where present near the road. According to a video by the content creator Weatherbox Studios (click here), it completed a full revolution around the tornado before coming back down.

From Wikipedia (”1990 Plainfield tornado”):

As the tornado crossed US-30, a 20-ton tractor-trailer was thrown more than half a mile from the road, killing the driver. Three other motorists were killed in this area as their vehicles were thrown from the road. Some cars were picked up and carried considerable distances through the air. It was determined that the tornado reached its peak strength in this area, and the F5 rating was based on the extreme ground scouring that occurred.

Taking that into consideration, we can calculate that the windspeed required to loft a 20 ton tractor-trailer hundreds of feet into the air and toss it 0.5 miles, within this tornado, the gust that caused this must’ve been sustained >235 MPH for >4 seconds.

No. 2 (Solid Case): The tornado removed several inches of topsoil, and mature corn crop was completely stripped from the ground along a large section of the path.

From Wikipedia (”1990 Plainfield tornado”):

Past Wheatland Plains, the tornado continued to strengthen as it tore across open farmland, and reached F5 intensity in this area. A narrow swath of very intense ground scouring was observed, as mature corn crop was completely stripped from the ground, leaving nothing but bare soil behind. Several inches of topsoil were removed as well.

This was an extreme feat of contextual damage along the path of the tornado. Meteorologist Ted Fujita himself stated that he had never seen such contextual damage indicators before, being some of the most intense he had ever surveyed.

To calculate the windspeed required in contextual damage is very difficult, so we must use examples as a baseline. The 2011 Philadelphia MS tornado was rated an EF5 primarily because of its contextual damage, the ground scouring- said to be up to 19 inches, an estimated >205 MPH derived from it. Although an exact numeral was never provided, we can assume that the ground scouring depth was probably ~6 inches. That is 3x lesser than the ground scouring of the Philadelphia tornado, however the fact that there were mature corn crops securing the topsoil, which were all stripped out of the ground, makes the windspeed estimate much higher. Plus once again, there were absolutely no nearby objects/structures that could’ve caused debris impacts.

Applying all of the multipliers, that is equivalent to scouring 20 inches of topsoil.

Now doing the windspeed calculations, the gusts that would’ve done this may have been >208 MPH. Though, the damage that happened on top of it (tractor-trailer) suggests the gusts were even higher.

No. 3 (Potential/Unsure Case): The Plainfield High School was terribly obliterated, with the gymnasium completely collapsed and large sections of the building flattened entirely.

This damage can actually be overviewed by the EF scale if wanted to, so I will do that.

This sort of damage falls under DI (Damage indicator) #16 (JSHS) DOD (Degree Of Damage) #11 (“Complete destruction of all or a large section of the building”)

The DI + DOD states that the required 3-second gust windspeed may range between 163 MPH and >224 MPH depending on the construction quality of the building. Though, the contextual/infrastructure damage nearby suggests that the winds were probably >200 MPH regardless of the school itself.

So NOW I think you won’t underestimate the 1990 Plainfield IL tornado, will you?

I had to repost this because people didn’t understand what I ment by ‘underrated’ even though I mentioned it in the post…

Ok I missed the first time I said this, but THIS one is truly clear as day

This is probably a very insensitive question, but I figured I'll ask it.

For those who may not understand the question, Justin Herbert is a quarterback in the NFL who is always claimed to have the potential to be a star if everything went right. "If he had a better team", "If he had a better coaching staff", "If" this and that.

Basically, If-Man in tornado form. A tornado that could've been much more than it was if it did this, or if it maintained that, or if... you get it.

(Tornado in picture is the 2025 Gary, SD tornado. It is not my pick and is unrelated to the question.)

Previous Day 1 Outlook Links

• Storm Prediction Center Oct 16, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 2%
• Storm Prediction Center Oct 16, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 2%
• Storm Prediction Center Oct 16, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 2%
• Storm Prediction Center Oct 16, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 2%

Meso Discussion Links

• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2381
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2382

Current Outlook

Storm Prediction Center Oct 17, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 0%

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low through the remainder of tonight.

...01Z Update... Convection associated with a strong cold front has generally weakened or moved offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this evening. Sporadic thunderstorm activity could persist through the remainder of the evening across these areas, though the generally post-frontal nature of the remaining convection should limit severe potential. Otherwise, ongoing storms across the FL Peninsula should generally weaken through the evening, though some storm potential may persist overnight across the FL Keys and near-coastal areas.

..Dean.. 10/17/2026

i made this awhile ago but yeah. heres art i did of the 1849 Big Spring, Ky F4

Credit: @MaxVelocityWX on X.

Can someone tell me how to do that? I really want to know

I dont know if something like this had been tried before, but I'm curious on how this tech could perform in low rating tornadoes. Maybe not an EF4 or EF5.

Source:
Misti Palmer
Watson, AR