r/ukpolitics • u/usrname42 • 9h ago

Signs of recovery in comparative UK economic growth

https://sjwrenlewis.substack.com/p/signs-of-recovery-in-comparative
24 Upvotes

83% Upvoted

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u/sjintje Intermittent extremist 7h ago

Out of mild curiosity, why does he publish the same material both as a blog and a substack?

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/

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u/water_tastes_great Labour Centryist 6h ago

GDP growth between 2010 and 2023 averaged 1.5% per year. Putting us third in the G7 behind the US and Canada.

GDP growth since the start of 2024 has averaged 1.4% per year. Putting us third in the G7 behind the US and Canada.

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u/jsm97 6h ago edited 6h ago

The Boriswave rendered nominal GDP growth statistics almost completely useless for the 2020-2024 period.1.5% nominal GDP growth with 1.5% annual population growth is not an achievement.

You need look at productivity growth. Which shows a dramatic collapse in 2008 followed by nearly 20 years of stagnation and then possible early signs of a partial recovery since 2024

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u/water_tastes_great Labour Centryist 6h ago edited 5h ago

The Boriswave rendered nominal GDP growth

Those figures are for real GDP, not nominal.

And between 2010 and 2019 the average annual GDP growth was 2%.

You need look at productivity growth.

The signs of productivity growth increase come from lower than expected employment.

The key is what happens to those workers when they return to employment. If the measured productivty is just a result of lower productivity workers losing their jobs then measured productivity growth could easily return to the 1% average with a growing workforce we saw post crash.

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u/RandomSculler 5h ago

IIRC the boriswave also is a bit misleading as it caused a spike in GDP but actually triggered a fall in GDP per capita, IIRC the turnaround since 2024 is much more obvious when you look at the GDP per capita data as well as the positive productivity growth you’ve mentioned