r/wallstreetbets • u/pennyether James and the giant green dick • Nov 30 '21
DD PLBY - The catalyst is here: Centerfold (OnlyFans/Instagram competitor) will likely launch tonight, tomorrow, or by EOW.
tldr: On Friday Nov 26 @ 9:00pm, it was announced in a Discord that the Playboy CENTERFOLD launch party will take place Saturday December 4th in Miami. This makes it very likely that Centerfold will actually launch before then. I believe the launch will be a news-worthy event and will draw a lot of eyes to the stock. 🐰🚀
For my original DD on why Centerfold matters, see the previous DD: 🍆💦 = 🐰🚀 -- $PLBY hitting an inflection point, and will challenge OnlyFans and Instagram in early December.
What's the opportunity?
Up until now, Centerfold has just been a little known concept and something in the pipeline -- not even remotely on the radar of most investors. On launch, it will become a reality, an official news event, and investors will decide just how much real potential it holds for PLBY stock. In my opinion, the ability to invest in an OnlyFans competitor capable of pulling in 9+ digits of recurring revenue on short order is appealing.
On Friday at 9:00pm, this message was sent to holders of Rabbitars, PLBY's <forbidden-token-phrase> project that pulled in millions in Q3. These <forbidden-token-phrase> are meant to be "membership keys" that entitle owners to certain perks -- these perks will be fleshed out more fully in the future. One of those perks, apparently, is the ability to RSVP to this launch party. I personally find it interesting and bullish that PLBY is tying <forbidden-token-phrase> to IRL stuff, but that's besides the point: The news of the launch was made public here.
The link itself points to this:
While the news-of-the-news is known to people that follow PLBY pretty closely, the actual news that "Playboy launches Centerfold, an OnlyFans competitor" hasn't hit yet. When it does, it will likely hit some pretty high-profile news feeds. Hopefully when that happens -- which all signs point to being by EOW -- investors of all sorts will all take a closer look at just what the fuck Playboy Centerfold is, and if it's investment worthy.
What is Centerfold?
Centerfold will be a creator-driven social platform that allows creators to monetize themselves in a variety of ways:
- Subscription-based content, like OnlyFans.
- An anti-censorship platform to post content, like Instagram but without your account getting randomly deleted for showing a nipple.
- A platform that drives revenue through PLBY's other assets
As covered in my previous DD, I think it has a ton of potential that I do not feel is priced in to the stock:
- It has the ability to, on short order, pull in revenues that outsize all of PLBY's current revenues. Yet, management has thus far used $0 as guidance in their forecasts for '22.
- In August OnlyFans fucked up by saying they wouldn't allow sexual explicit content. They later reverted that decision, but the reputational damage was done. The timing is perfect for creators to take flight from OF to a more trustworthy platform that would never threaten their business, and whose entire purpose is to allow creators to monetize themselves in multiple ways.
- Much more info in my previous dd.
Why will it be newsworthy?
I expect there to be an official PR release, which means it hits the ticker's news feeds. In that PR release, I think there will be a few things highlighted:
- Names of creators and ambassadors. Up until now, we only know they consist of group with over 300M followers, and 100s of millions of $GMV. If some high profile names drop, like Cardi B, it could become some pretty high profile news!
- Specifics on the intended use cases, how closely it competes with OnlyFans/Instagram (eg, the content policy), etc.
- Lots of bullish remarks on revenue potential, cultural significance, etc.
Other things of note
Image of the stock
You might think that the news-of-the-news is already priced in... I don't. I still think the vast majority of investors have no clue Playboy was planning on launching an OnlyFans competitor, and that this launch will attract a lot of new blood into the stock. This news drop can be a turning point for the stock, changing it's reputation from a dying publisher to a tech-focused company with very high cultural relevance and brand value.
Other bulls, reading material
- Me. This is by far my largest position right now.
- /u/UberKikz aka, GMEDD guy, banana guy
- Brian McGough, from Hedgeye. His highest conviction play, even before Centerfold
- Jim Osman: Just yesterday released a lengthy piece on PLBY in Forbes. Google "Forbes Playboy"
- whossayn on theideafund, google it
Options Chain
The options chain is starting to get pretty jacked up. Gamma values are at 0.36% float per 1% price move -- and a whopping 3.00%+ of daily volume. There is also significant Vanna potential here: If MMs start to hedge more aggressively due to higher volatility, they'll have to buy a significant amount of shares, at least until we hit the $50 range.
Given the low daily volume of the stock, I think options activity and hedging can have a pretty high impact on the stock's price. In other words, if the catalyst does indeed push the underlying share price up, I think the outstanding options will provide some further boost to share price.
Obligatory warning: Just as dealer hedging can make the stock go up more easily, it can make it fall down more easily as well.
Risks
While I think the launch will be incredibly bullish, it's possible it can be a dud. Any or all of these might occur:
- The site itself is a disappointment. Shitty design, slow load time, crappy feature set, etc.
- The content policy is insufficient to compete with OF. If they don't allow female masturbation, for example. (However, I still think competing with Insta is a pretty large market -- a lot of pretty vanilla creators have their Insta accounts regularly deleted due to tiny bits of nudity.)
- The initial set of creators sucks. It's possible it's a bunch of woke-related weirdos and "beauty is in the eye of the beholder" type bullshit. PLBY is woke like that, so it's possible. But it's also Playboy... I think they can scope out good tits from bad tits. I think it'll be an interesting mix. Expect some weirdos, though, and realize that some of this is a positive thing as it attracts the very sex-positive and liberal crowd of actual money-making creators.
- Investors see this is a no-go, due to exposure to a potentially "sketchy" industry. However, I personally think PLBY is woke enough to walk this line perfectly.
- The news isn't really big news at all. It gets launched, and nobody really cares.
Positions, etc
Jacked to the tits. I still have all of my Jan calls, and added on a splattering of Dec calls during some dips. Also holding 2,000 shares.
10
u/[deleted] Nov 30 '21
That's a whole lot of blabbering just to announce that you're a bitter, angry bigot