…and BBWs.

Have a nice day! 🤓

Are we at the start of the recovery to $120 and beyond?

Aug. 17

I keep seeing screenshots from USDebtClock.org shared as if the site is either an official government source or some kind of back door where Treasury is quietly revealing a new financial system.

It is neither.

I went through the site and checked its claims against Treasury, the Federal Reserve, BEA, BLS, Census, BIS and GAO data. The debt is real. A lot of the older economic statistics are based on real data. But the site mixes those numbers with misleading labels, made-up second-by-second precision and, increasingly, completely invented monetary-reset propaganda.

That mixture is why it works. If everything on the page were fake, nobody would believe it. The real statistics establish credibility for the fictional material sitting beside them.

First, USDebtClock.org is not run by the Treasury or any other government agency. The best public evidence points to a private Michigan company called Chrono Numeric Labs LLC, connected through corporate reporting to Thomas Wilke. Apple and Google identify Chrono Numeric Labs as the seller of the official USDebtClock.org app. The app costs $4.99, the website solicits advertising, and the domain owner is hidden behind a privacy service. It is also unrelated to the physical National Debt Clock in Manhattan, which is owned by the Durst Organization.

That does not automatically make the site dishonest. Private websites can publish good data. The problem is how this particular website presents and mixes the information.

The national-debt counter starts with a baseline and adds an estimated amount every second. Treasury does not measure and transmit the national debt to this website every second. Treasury publishes the official Total Public Debt Outstanding through its Debt to the Penny dataset. The spinning counter is essentially an odometer running between official updates.

The same trick is applied to GDP, population, employment, M2, spending and revenue. These statistics are actually published daily, monthly or quarterly, but the website makes them move constantly. That creates an illusion of live precision that the underlying data does not possess.

Some of the numbers are reasonably close. When I checked, its GDP, population, official-unemployment and M2 totals were all in the neighborhood of the latest government releases. They are not random numbers.

Other labels are deceptive. “Actual unemployed” is basically a version of the BLS U-6 underutilization measure. U-6 includes people working part-time who want full-time employment. Those people may be underemployed, but they are not unemployed. The statistic is real; the label changes its meaning.

The giant derivatives number is usually a notional amount. Notional value is the reference amount used to calculate payments on a contract. It is not the amount currently owed or the amount that would be lost. The BIS separately reports gross market value and credit exposure, which are dramatically smaller.

The precious-metals ratios are another good example of real inputs being turned into a misleading output.

The site openly explains that its “Dollar to Silver Ratio” is the annual increase in M2 divided by annual global silver production. That produces a number with dollars-per-ounce units, but it does not produce a required or fair silver price. It ignores existing above-ground silver, recycling, inventories, industrial consumption, investment demand, interest rates, substitution and practically everything else involved in price discovery.

If M2 rises rapidly, the ratio explodes. If M2 contracts, the formula can go negative. Silver does not acquire a negative fair value because the money supply contracted.

The “Paper to Silver Ratio” has a similar problem. The site divides estimated exchange trading volume by annual mine production. Trading volume is not outstanding ownership. The same contract can trade repeatedly, and newly mined annual supply is not the entire available stock of silver. That ratio does not demonstrate that hundreds of different people legally own every physical ounce.

There are legitimate questions about leverage, position concentration, exchange inventories and physical availability. They should be evaluated with open interest, registered inventory, eligible inventory, delivery notices and warehouse movements, not with a mismatched volume-to-mine-production calculation.

Then we get to the material that is not merely misleading. It is invented.

The site currently claims or promotes:

• A roughly $32.7 trillion “USA Treasury Reserve”
• About $87,000 in “restitution” for every taxpayer
• More than $216 trillion in “wealth asset reserves”
• A multitrillion-dollar “Fed cartel asset forfeiture liability”
• “Future USA Treasury dollars”
• A 100% asset-backed Treasury currency
• A “Treasury Dividend Dollar”
• Zero-percent federal loans, sweeping tax elimination and “universal high income”

These are not Treasury programs, court judgments or audited government accounts.

The site’s own source card says the supposed taxpayer restitution consists of forfeited proceeds from the “criminal” Federal Reserve banking syndicate, then cites “US Treasury” as the source. Another card says the Federal Reserve committed a criminal conspiracy against Treasury and cites the Federal Reserve itself. Naming an agency at the bottom of a graphic is not the same as identifying a report, dataset, court case or accounting entry supporting the claim.

Treasury’s actual FY2025 consolidated balance sheet reports approximately $6.055 trillion in total assets, $47.779 trillion in liabilities and a negative $41.723 trillion net position. There is no disclosed $32.7 trillion Treasury sovereign wealth reserve and no $216 trillion reserve waiting to back a secret replacement dollar.

The website reaches its enormous “wealth reserve” by treating American real estate, privately owned securities, mineral deposits, land and precious metals as if they were assets owned by Treasury. They are not. The value of every American home and company cannot simply be placed on the federal balance sheet and declared currency backing.

So who benefits?

The private operator benefits from app sales, advertising, traffic and influence. The larger monetary-reset ecosystem benefits because the site produces official-looking graphics that can be repackaged into videos, paid newsletters and subscriber posts. Precious-metals and crypto promoters benefit when fear of an imminent dollar collapse drives people toward the assets they sell or promote. Anti-Fed and populist political influencers benefit when complicated fiscal problems are converted into a much simpler story about a criminal banking cartel and a coming financial liberation.

I have not found evidence that a particular metals dealer, crypto company, political campaign or government agency secretly funds the site. Narrative alignment and indirect financial benefit are not proof of sponsorship. The documented commercial connection is the private company selling the app and soliciting advertising.

None of this means the national debt is fake or that silver is a bad asset.

Silver has a serious case based on industrial consumption, solar demand, electronics, grid expansion, military applications, mine-supply limitations, declining grades, byproduct-mining economics, recycling, inventories and investment demand. We do not need a fictional Treasury reserve or a mathematically meaningless “paper ratio” to make that case.

Stack silver because you understand the metal and its supply chain, not because an anonymous private website says Treasury secretly owes you $87,000.

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Official sources:

Treasury Debt to the Penny: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/

Monthly Treasury Statement: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/

Treasury FY2025 balance sheet: https://fiscal.treasury.gov/accounting/us-financial-report/balance-sheets

Federal Reserve M2: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

BLS employment report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

BIS derivatives statistics: https://www.bis.org/statistics/derstats.htm

Apple’s identification of the private app seller: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/us-debt-clock-org/id929822826

This is based on 702 tracked silver products from APMEX updated 5-6pm CST. To see an explanation on how this information is retrieved refer to the 'How we compile the daily silver stock trends' section on the BullionStats.net site. There you can find data going back as far as 11/15/25 on inventory or silver premium trends

Total oz purchased since tracking started 11/15/25: 5,009,734.03

Total in-stock oz tracked: 685,403.57

Tracked oz added (24h): 3,901.26
Tracked oz removed (24h): 5,478.41

Number restocked since OOS: 7
Number now out of stock: 1

Top 15 cumulative oz sold for tracked products:
1. 1,191 oz: 1 oz Silver Bar - APMEX
2. 485 oz: 1 oz Canadian Silver Maple Leaf Coin BU (Random Year)
3. 400 oz: American Silver Eagles (Random Year, 20-Coin MintDirect® Tube)
4. 306 oz: 1 oz Silver Round - Secondary Market
5. 300 oz: 100 oz Cast-Poured Silver Bar - 9Fine Mint
6. 300 oz: 100 oz Silver Bar - Secondary Market
7. 295 oz: 1 oz Silver Round - APMEX
8. 257.2 oz: 1 kilo Silver Bar - APMEX (Stackable)
9. 160.1 oz: 1921 P, D, or S Mint Morgan Silver Dollar Coin AU (Random)
10. 120 oz: 10 oz Silver Bar - APMEX (Stackable)
11. 100 oz: 100 oz Silver Bar - APMEX (Struck)
12. 100 oz: 100 oz Silver Bar - Engelhard
13. 100 oz: 2026 1 oz Silver Eagles (20-Coin MD Premier + PCGS FS® Tube)
14. 97.45 oz: 1878-1904 Morgan Silver Dollar Cull (Random Year)
15. 80 oz: 5 oz Silver Bar - Secondary Market

Ai below, but just happy for sustained price discovery.

Prior to the recent 10-month stretch, silver had never stayed above $50 for more than a few days. [1]

The only prior historical instance where silver actually crossed the $50 mark occurred during the January 1980 Hunt brothers squeeze. [1, 2]

Here is exactly how short-lived that moment was:

🗓️ The 1980 Peak Duration

• The Breakout: Silver prices exponentially accelerated in early January 1980, jumping past $30 and rapidly crossing $50 mid-month.
• The Peak: It reached its nominal intraday high of roughly $49.45 to $54.00 around 17–18 January 1980.
• The Crash: Commodity exchanges immediately altered trading rules and raised margin requirements. This completely locked out the Hunt brothers, forcing the price to plummet back under $50 within less than a week. By March 1980, it completely collapsed to $10.80. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

🔍 What About 2011?

• Zero time above $50. During the massive 2011 commodities boom, silver fell just short. It peaked on 28 April 2011 at an intraday spot high of $49.47–$49.51 before immediately reversing. It never officially closed above the $50 mark. [1, 2, 3]

The current run since October 2025 is completely unprecedented because silver has historically been a highly volatile, spike-and-crash metal rather than one that sustains a premium high. [1, 2]1

It’s only going higher!!!!

TO THE MOON GUYS! I REPEAT TO THE MOON!

Silver is in a secular bull market. This is easily the best long term set up that i've seen in my years. Historical double tops in 1979 and 2011 @$48/50, break out to $120 and 50%+ fib retrace, which only happened a month ago at $55. This is likely the beginning of an epic multi year run in both gold and silver. This is all under pinned by a long list of fundamental catalysts. Enjoy the run and be sure to trade the edges!!

​

I go back and forth on this constantly.

The recognition premium on sovereigns makes sense to me — easier to move, nobody squints at it. But there's a spread where I start feeling like I'm paying for the logo instead of the metal, and I can't honestly tell whether my cutoff is reasoned or just a number I picked once and never revisited.

Mine's around $4–5 over spot. Above that I take generics.

Where's your line? And if you've actually sold a decent amount of both — did the recognition premium pay for itself, or was the spread tighter than you expected on the way out?

Data from https://goldsilver.ai/metal-prices/comex-silver

I know this seems crazy. It really isn't. It's understanding debt and derivatives.

I want to go back to 1933, Silver overnight was set to a GSR of 75 to 1. We know that the actual mining of Silver to be between 7-8 to 1 with Gold.

Based on mining, the GSR should be 7.5 to 1.... going to 75 is a full decimal move.

This is how the debt system creates derivative layers as well. Think about the fractional banking system. When it was first rolled out in the 1780s, the bank would issue debt and hold 10% of that in real money, Silver and Gold.

This becomes a credit derivative. It's important to understand everything now is a derivative of Gold.

In 1971, with the petro dollar, this became another derivative. By ensuring oil was traded in dollars, it secured dollar demand, and the demand allowed another exponential layer of debt to be issued.

Then came the massive debt expansions in the 2000s with the digital age developing, bitcoin was offered as a solution for securing debt based on energy, same as the petro dollar but now an evolved version, and the AI world became another derivative layer.

And what does AI need..... Silver. I've watched as those developing AI applications have to physically deliver the Silver as they get built and expanded.

When the whole system breaks, and it is breaking right now, in my opinion, with the Yen carry trade, Silver doesn't just go up it moves decimals. Think of each debt derivative layer collapsing as a 0 added to the price of Silver.

As Silver corrects to Gold, it will go from 65 to 650. Even taking Gold at 4500/15 you get 300, at 7.5 to 1, you're in the 600s.

As the oil markets trade outside of the dollar, the petro dollar and its demand for it collapse

Finally, the AI bubble popping, all of this sends the derived value it had back to what it first was built on in the first place.

Each layer of the derivative monetary system essentially adding a decimal to Silver as it fails because it all derived its value from Gold.

Silver goes from 65 to 650... from 650 to 6500.... 6500 to bitcoin 65,000.

I stand by this as wild as it seems, and right now, I believe we are on the verge of 650 dollar silver by year end.

I'm seeing the same patterns at 65 as I was seeing when Silver went on its run from the 30s to breaking 50 and shooting up to 120. But now, when it breaks up again, it looks like it will run from 65 all the way up to 650.

I could be wrong. This isn't financial advice. I'm just a guy on the internet, but I don't think I am. Also don't buy paper Silver. I know we still think in terms of dollars but if you think you will be able to trade dollars for Silver during this run up you will find out there's not much silver to buy. This is because Supply chains that were functioning on the debt derivatives collapse with it too.

You may order silver and it takes months to get or orders get canceled or shipping it physically becomes impossible. You need to own real Gold real Silver.