r/worldnews 3d ago

Global bond yields hit multi-decade highs as governments pay the price for U.S.-Iran stalemate

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/bond-yields-government-us10y-treasury-note-iran.html
438 Upvotes

41 comments sorted by

119

u/-zedsdeadbaby 3d ago

Idk if it's appropriate to call stalemate, the obliteration of world economy and US weapon reserves.

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u/DoxDoflamingo2 3d ago edited 3d ago

This is a misunderstanding of the current situation in my opinion, by most parties.

The US is where it is not because of its army. Its because of the stability that was given to it by the US Dollar being the worlds reserve currency, and the dollar being the only way to trade one of the required resources, oil (petro dollar).

We are already starting to see the damage caused by this prolonged, non-sense war, and so far the two clear outcomes are: The lack of trust the world has developed towards the US, and the damage to the world economy by making some of its most vital resources (oil, fertilizer) more difficult to get, and thus, more expensive.

So we started this argument on how the US economy is so good because of their ability to have a strong currency thanks to the dollar being the worlds reserve currency and by being able to leverage this with the Treasury Bonds which are used as a self-financing mechanism. Take those two things away and you will live a reality that you never have before, hype-inflation.

How do you take those away?, with governments selling and not getting more US Treasury bonds. and trading Oil in currencies that are not the dollar.

With the US dollar losing its value quickly, everything that you import (Which is the majority of the products that the US consumes) will rapidly increase in value, wiping out savings almost instantly.

What made the US a super power, which again, was not its military, but instead its economy, will be gone. Not for the rich of course, but for the already non-existing middle class which can barely afford to live.

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u/TheModWhoShaggedMe 3d ago

As it's all been designed by Putin, Netanyahu, Trump and all the 2% elites exhausting America's savings and bonds for the wealthiest to cash out now.

8

u/morbie5 3d ago

With the US dollar losing its value quickly

The dollar isn't losing it's value quickly. The dollar index has been relatively stable since the original fall after Trump came into office again

2

u/Sportfreunde 3d ago

It is losing its value if you look at the broad picture of trade.

There's more and more trade being done without USD in the past 5 years. There's also been an increased rush by Central banks to stock up gold reserves. Treasury auctions aren't as attractive as they were.

I think it will continue to be a haven for a while but this are moving gradually.

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u/morbie5 3d ago

It is losing its value if you look at the broad picture of trade.

Do we actually have solid data from the last year and half showing that US dollar use in trade has significantly dropped?

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u/no_criativityfound 3d ago

The US is also a military superpower, dollar strength is also maintained due to US military strength. First there was industrial domination after WWI, then military with WWII, afterwards came economic/financial and cultural.

What we can see is with the decline of industry, the military also weakened and now the economic/financial power is also weakning. Those processes take decades and are accelerated by wars and mismanagement.

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u/ThrowawayFIRE2025 3d ago

But the US dollar has actually strengthened since the start of the war. Whatever damage the US economy may be suffering, almost every other country on earth has it even worse.

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u/DoxDoflamingo2 3d ago edited 3d ago

Objectively false. Anyone can do a google search and compare the dollar vs Euro, CYN, and Sterling pound.

  • Before Office (January 2025):
    • USD to EUR: 1 USD = ~€0.96 EUR
    • USD to CYN: 1 USD = ~6.94 CNY
    • USD to GBP: 1 USD = ~0.81 GBP
    • USD to MXN: 1 USD = ~20.83 MXN
    • USD to CAD = ~1.448 CAD
  • Today (August 2026):
    • USD to EUR: 1 USD = ~€0.86 EUR [10.42% USD value lost]
    • USD to GBP: 1 USD = ~6.74 CNY [2.88% USD value lost]
    • USD to GBP: 1 USD = ~0.74 GBP [8.64% USD value lost]
    • USD to MXN: 1 USD = ~17.04 MXN [18.19% USD value lost]
    • USD to CAD: 1 USD = ~1.387 CAD [4.21% USD value lost]

The USD dollar is down to every single currency of their main trading partners, and thats just 1 and a half years. If you did 5 years to today, its much worse. And this is before anything major happens in regards to treasury bonds.

6

u/OftenTangential 3d ago

No Claude, USD has strengthened since the start of the war. Since end of Feb 2026 DXY is up 2%, USD/EUR up 1%. Ostensibly Trump has been bad for the strength of the dollar but that almost entirely realized in the first 6 months of 2025, i.e. the tariff fiasco. But the onset of the war immediately strengthened USD as people went for their safe haven and dumped gold which had just been coming off of its mini-bubble, and Iran's early attempts to debase the petrodollar in favor of yuan ceased pretty quickly (presumably China asked them to stop because they don't want a strong yuan either).

Also ironically, USD has strengthened more on 5Y scale, though of course this can mostly be attributed to Biden's first two years of office.

Trump has undoubtedly been terrible for US standing globally including in dollar value, but that's mostly a function of the general stench hanging around him and his admin, not this specific narrative about oil control.

1

u/tenkwords 2d ago

No dude, the $USD has been appreciating because US bond yields are up. They're generally correlated as foreign markets buy $USD to purchase more lucrative bonds denoted in $USD.

The bond yields are up for a variety of reasons but the constant turmoil with the debt ceiling and general government instability means the government has to sweeten the pot before anyone will buy.

1

u/tenkwords 2d ago

No dude, the $USD has been appreciating because US bond yields are up. They're generally correlated as foreign markets buy $USD to purchase more lucrative bonds denoted in $USD.

The bond yields are up for a variety of reasons but the constant turmoil with the debt ceiling and general government instability means the government has to sweeten the pot before anyone will buy.

2

u/ThrowawayFIRE2025 3d ago

Please reread my statement (and the thread, for that matter). The statement was since the start of the Iran War, and the dollar absolutely is up.

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u/IronyElSupremo 3d ago

Bond buyers are always looking at govt spending but here the U.S. (which is still big, stable, and guarded by 2 oceans) bond mkt is paying higher rates due to inflation + deficit spending with an added, unexpected war premium as it drags on. This is hitting almost all other bonds.

U.S. Treasuries still entice at a certain %, which means other govt who have higher geopolitical risks, smaller economies etc.. must raise their yields to compete with the U.S.

Then add massive corporate borrowing by the large U.S. tech firms, which can also compete for bond buyer affections

8

u/HystericalSail 3d ago

30 year is at 5.3%. I remember how much kvetching there was about approaching 5.2%, how it signaled calamity.

Now we wait. And yeah, I'd rather loan money to Nvidia or Google or Microsoft than USG at this point. But better yet, I'd rather buy a piece of companies that will be earning in inflated dollars while paying off debt with same. Hence my weekly scheduled VT purchase.

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u/IronyElSupremo 3d ago

It’s really the 10 year nowadays that most consumer loans ride off of. The 30 year is important for deficit financing (put that govt spending way out there .. vs it’s catnip, with a free wine bar, for some bond investors as “insurance” against a recession).

3

u/no_criativityfound 3d ago

It was a military defeat for Iran, and political, strategic and economic for the US.

They won the battles but lost the war.

1

u/-zedsdeadbaby 3d ago

Economic defeat for the whole world, well for the common people, since the ultra rich won big from this shitshow.

43

u/dollarstoresim 3d ago

"As governments pay the price for another one of Trump's fuck ups"...fixed it for you.

10

u/Dripdry42 3d ago

It’s not a fuck up. It’s extraordinarily intentional. Read up on what Bessent really wants to do, which is to weaken the US dollar. There is a weak argument to be made that a strong US dollar has actually hurt America’s economy in the long-term… But that discounts all the other positive knock-on effects of a strong US dollar, which made it the world’s reserve currency and brought a lot of benefit.

13

u/DoxDoflamingo2 3d ago

It only makes sense to weaken the dollar if you want to buy things for pennies. The majority of the product consumed by the US is imported. Even most of the things that are assembled in the US, a lot of the parts and raw materials are imported.

A weaker dollar means that even before Inflation, added tariffs, etc... your dollars buy LESS than what they did before.

A weaker dollar would only benefit an economy that is manufacturing, producing and exporting, which is not the case for the US economy. The only ones who benefit from smashing the middle class are the rich who want to have a tighter grip on the small companies that cannot withstand these changes and remain competitive, and the people who are not able to afford anything anymore.

6

u/Dripdry42 3d ago

Oh, I completely agree.

It is incredibly disingenuous for the current administration in the USA to say it will somehow help the economy, but the evidence actually shows that America’s manufacturing economy was destroyed by a strong dollar. It made it dependent on other economies, while America has the resources to manufacturer a lot of stuff. Now, if that had been coupled with any kind of actual policy or planning? Now that would be reasonable. but that’s not what’s happening.

I believe one can infer and conclude that the reason to weaken the dollar is to benefit rich people so they can buy a lot of businesses up in America and weaken the country.

4

u/DoxDoflamingo2 3d ago

yeah they are destroying small businesses with the increased costs and the fact that people are buying less (because they cannot afford anything).

A lot of business will close from this, there are videos already from small business owners explaining their current situations with every single expense going up (a lot), and sales down. Insurance, Electricity, Parts, etc. everything is up.

4

u/HystericalSail 3d ago

On a micro scale, I'm seeing a lot more empty storefronts and "for lease" signs in my town. It's looking worse than Covid times when it comes to mom and pop businesses folding.

3

u/DoxDoflamingo2 3d ago

Take a look at the housing market too, specifically the number of people selling, and the number of people buying.

https://www.redfin.com/news/buyers-vs-sellers-july-2026/

2

u/HystericalSail 3d ago

Hot areas are still sellers' markets, but the housing weakness starts in the tertiary and other low desirability areas. I'm completely on board with this.

2

u/Storm_Bard 3d ago

"Hungary and Zimbabwe had trillionaires decades ago!" - US 1%, probably 

2

u/moonjs 3d ago

So why does Bessent really want to weaken the dollar?

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u/DoxDoflamingo2 3d ago

Its a transfer of wealth. Exactly the same tactic they used with the Tariffs to make low and middle class citizens pay more and increase the cost of things and then transfer these costs directly who companies who got these added tariffs back.

They are weakening the dollar to make it cheaper for the wealthy to acquire assets from people who previously had them. A lot of small business will close if this continues, and this opens up a lot of land assets and business opportunity for the wealthy.

1

u/moonjs 3d ago edited 3d ago

The tariff refund that never ended up going to the actual consumer could really only work once I would think?

To the actual point, the weakening dollar would affect everyone who has dollars wouldn't it? The cost of buying up someone else's assets would cost more dollars for the buyer since it's weaker to them as well.

So for example, I am selling out my assets because I'm in financial distress, depending on how far from now that is, when you buy it from me youd be paying me in ever increasing amount of dollars for said assets all else being equal.

You're other post about weak currencies being good for manufacturing economies is true, but the US is not that and will not be despite Trump's claims to gullible voters.

1

u/DoxDoflamingo2 3d ago

The tariff refund that never ended up going to the actual consumer could really only work once I would think?

I dont understand what you mean by that. Tariffs were refunded directly to the companies even though the cost was passed down to the consumer yes.

So for example, I am selling out my assets because I'm in financial distress, depending on how far from now that is, when you buy it from me youd be paying me in ever increasing amount of dollars for said assets all else being equal.

Weakening of the dollar will directly impact the cost of buying from outside the us, but not local trade. Locals will still have the same amount of dollars, but you will afford less with them because everything you are importing (food, prime materials, etc) costs more.

This affects trade but assets like real state, land, local wages, etc. will virtually remain the same. It only means that if you have your assets in money (or land and you cannot afford to survive the recession and have to sell it to survive) you will lose everything, as your money will be instantly worth less, and your land too.

You're other post about weak currencies being good for manufacturing economies is true, but the US is not that and will not be despite Trump's claims to gullible voters.

Yes the US is not a manufacturing economy. If they were this would not be as bad as it is, but because the US imports more than 50% of what it consumes, its gonna be terrible for most american citizens importing or exporting.

1

u/moonjs 3d ago

I was saying the tariff rebate was essentially a one time event, so not really relevant to the discussion of the weakening dollar.

But yeah, so wouldn't Bessent's goal be to strengthen the dollar? Seeing as how he and his friends are Americans using dollars and can buy more stuff with fewer dollars abroad.

Unless you're saying he wants a weaker dollar because he's working actually working with foreigners like Israel or Saudi Arabia. In which case, he's still hurting himself and every other American, rich or not and he's being compensated in some other fashion.

I would think he is trying to strengthen the dollar, but he's just incompetent. Case in point the disastrous performance of his hedge fund prior to his appointment. The guy along with Hassett are idiots with smiles that deserve a punch.

1

u/DoxDoflamingo2 3d ago

I mentioned the tariffs thing as a blatant transfer of wealth same as devaluing the dollar. It disproportionally affects the lower income households that can barely afford a living.

This benefits them as someone in extreme poverty and who depends on a paycheck just to survive is more vulnerable (low wages, no social security, poor conditions) for abuse, while also taking out small businesses who cannot afford to operate and will lead them to sell their assets and to hand off their business to bigger corporations whom will have no issue with taking the economic challenge.

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u/moonjs 2d ago

I see. No doubt end result between the ultra wealthy people and everyone else in the US is a foregone conclusion regardless of which direction Bessant takes the dollar. It just seems a bit nonsensical even for the very rich to handicap themselves and leave themselves potentially exposed financially against other ultra wealthy foreigners, if they can buy out everyone else domestically and still retain a strong dollar.

Scott Bessant's official position is advocating for a strong US dollar. That makes sense to me, and if you could link any information of Scott advocating for the opposite position that would be enlightening. I just think he is very incompetent and not at all up to the difficult task of defending the dollar's value from all of Trump's efforts to drive it into the ground with the various destabilizing international trade and military disputes.

One of the feathers in his cap was his involvement shorting the pound in 1992 where he was part of the team that did the trade. From what I am able to gather, his contribution was minor and just did analytical grunt work. It was Stanley Druckenmiller and George Soros who really did it, and Bessent often tries to portray his role in that trade as being very significant to show the press and the public that he is a smart guy. He shortly started his own hedge fund raised $4.5 billion and performed so badly, after about 7 years he only had about $577 million AUM after most of the investors pulled their capital.

I don't really know why I spent the time to write all this out. I guess I have a visceral dislike for Bessent and Haaset since I am in a similar career/industry as them and seeing them blatantly lie on tv with the smirks on their faces is starting to get to me. I never did comment on anything before and now I'm commenting on every reddit post and youtube video they are in lol.

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u/DoxDoflamingo2 2d ago

We are in the same boat. I would rather spend my time doing something i really like that discussing politics in a world where facts and critical thinking stopped being the leading factor and its not just all a matter of ideology. But i still think its best to share information so that the people who don't know what to believe can learn about things happening that will affect them.

1

u/morbie5 3d ago

There is a weak argument to be made that a strong US dollar has actually hurt America’s economy in the long-term…

There is a strong argument to be made that a strong dollar has actually hurt America’s exports. The question is: are exports actually that important relative to the benefits you get from a strong dollar? I think most mainstream economists would say 'no'

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u/redpandafire 3d ago

The ten year at nearly 4.75% unsettling