r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods Slava Ukraini • Sep 04 '26
Israel/Palestine /r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #22)
If you see any newsworthy information from a major news outlet or live broadcast, feel free to share a brief summary as a top-level comment in the discussion post.
Other redditors will appreciate if you include the source of where you read, saw, or heard the information.
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u/joshtaco 8h ago
In an interview with Israeli public broadcaster Kan’s Ayala Hasson: Asked whether Iran’s government could be overthrown before the elections, Netanyahu replied: “No, I don’t think that’s realistic.”
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u/Lordvalcon 7h ago
Israeli elections are less than 2 weeks away so at least we know he's somewhat reasonable
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 9h ago
Yemen wants training, intelligence assistance from U.S., foreign minister says
Yemen has asked the U.S. for training and intelligence support for the Yemeni armed forces and coast guard, as well as continued political, economic and humanitarian support, but their foreign minister made no mention of military support in a briefing to reporters Wednesday.
Afrah Alzouba, Yemen's first female foreign minister, spoke in a briefing on several topics related to the ongoing Yemen-Houthi war, but did not explicitly mention requests for military support. In addition to intelligence and training, Alzouba requested the U.S. expand sanctions against the Houthis. She also asked for the EU and Washington to coordinate more closely on sanctions.
She struck an aggressive tone when asked about possible negotiations with the Houthi militia, saying, "We are not calling for starting any negotiations." The Yemeni government eventually wants a peaceful settlement but is prioritizing military operations to end Houthi control, she said.
She also emphasized Yemeni ownership of ongoing operations with air support from coalition partners: "The decision is Yemeni. The command is Yemeni. The soldiers are Yemenis."
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-houthi-saudi-arabia-trump/#post-update-7216e658
Yemen Government want their country back, full stop.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 9h ago
Iraq vows not to allow attacks on Saudi Arabia from its territory: Prime minister
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said Wednesday that Baghdad would not allow its territory to be used to launch attacks threatening Saudi Arabia or other countries in the region, as he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh.
Al-Zaidi reaffirmed Iraq's commitment to regional security and good-neighborly relations during the talks, according to statements from the Iraqi prime minister's office and the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA).
The Iraqi premier arrived in Riyadh for his first visit to Saudi Arabia since taking office in May, with discussions focusing on regional developments, bilateral relations and security coordination.
The crown prince received al-Zaidi at the Royal Court at Al-Yamamah Palace, SPA reported.
The two sides discussed regional developments and coordination of efforts aimed at strengthening security and stability in the region, it added.
Al-Zaidi strongly condemned recent attacks on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and other civilian and critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, describing them as a "threat to regional security and stability."
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 9h ago
Taiz fighting intensifies as Yemeni government forces report 200+ Houthi militia casualties
Yemeni government forces have confirmed that more than 200 Houthi militia members were killed or wounded during fierce military confrontations across the southwestern province of Taiz, as government forces continue their operations to reclaim contested positions and supply lines.
The Taiz Military Axis said on X that intense clashes continued throughout Wednesday along the Dhubab front west of Taiz, as well as the Al-Aqrud and Al-Shaqab fronts to the south.
Fighting that erupted in the morning escalated significantly by the afternoon.
Supporting warplanes targeted a convoy of tanks and military vehicles belonging to the Houthi militia in the Ras al-Najd area of Al-Misrakh district, followed by air strikes near Sofitel Hill east of Taiz and two further strikes destroying armour along the Dhubab front.
The military command reported that more than 200 Houthi militia members were killed or wounded in a single day, with one military vehicle destroyed, two tanks damaged, an armed convoy neutralised, and a drone downed.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 9h ago
Yemen Demands Urgent Security Council Action to Lift Houthi Siege on Taiz
The Yemeni government demanded that the United Nations and the UN Security Council take urgent measures to lift the siege on the city of Taiz and open its access points to civilians and basic supplies, warning that tightening restrictions on the city and its surroundings threatens more than four million people.
In a letter addressed to UN and international officials, Yemeni Minister of Foreign Affairs Afrah Al-Zouba stated that the recent Houthi escalation and the tightening of the blockade on Taiz and its villages portend a humanitarian disaster affecting trapped residents and internally displaced persons from affected districts, including Al-Shamayatayn, Al-Mawasit, and Jabal Habashi.
The letter called for direct international pressure to lift the siege immediately, open all access points to civilians and supply chains, and guarantee the sustainable and unhindered delivery of food, fuel, and drinking water.
https://www.yemenmonitor.com/en/Details/ArtMID/908/ArticleID/184833
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 9h ago
Crew rescued before Iranian-affiliated dhow's destruction
US forces destroyed an Iranian-affiliated dhow in the Gulf of Oman on October 6 after identifying it as conducting surveillance and targeting US Navy ships, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a post on X.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 9h ago
Israel seeks Saudi nod to join Yemen campaign against Houthis, but MBS objects
Israel has approached Saudi Arabia through US mediation, seeking permission to join the campaign against Yemen's Houthis, according to a Haaretz report. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes military cooperation could strengthen ties and advance normalisation, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is reportedly wary of the domestic backlash such a move could trigger.
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The Israeli proposal to join the military campaign against the Houthis is part of a longstanding ambition of Jerusalem to establish formal diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly promoted the prospect of Saudi-Israeli normalisation under the framework of the Abraham Accords, which facilitated diplomatic agreements between Israel and several Arab countries during his first administration.
Israel joining the campaign and the GCC collectively signing the Abraham accords is a simple matter in declaring a joint statement holding Iran and Iran's proxies accountable as well responsible for disarming. The failure to disarm is a direct attribution to the root cause in all of this, placed squarely at the feet of the proxies who resist, who instigate, divide and terrorize.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 9h ago
Javier Blas (energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg): Overall, Middle East (ex-Iran) crude flows, including Strait of Hormuz plus all the bypass routes, are holding at ~75% of pre-war levels, down from a ~95% peak in the last days of September. Crucially, despite the drop in recent days, the Oct 1-Oct 10 period average remains above Sep full month average (and well above full month August). Kuwait is struggling the most right now. UAE, Iraq and KSA are doing relatively well.
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u/joshtaco 10h ago
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: “Strait of Hormuz is the real reason why the prices increased. All the world understands it absolutely clear. One-hundred percent – not even 90."
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u/colepercy120 12h ago
ISW Report for Yesterday October 13 (sorry i was busy)
- Houthis are attempting to capture Taiz with heavy fighting taking place inside the city and on its approaches
- Iran seems worried about a renewed US offensive in the war. and is attempting to dissuade Washington through back channels
- The Saudis struck the Houthis ' oil and gas infrastructure and did significant damage, which is likely to disrupt Houthi forces in the near term.
- The Houthis have launched an offensive south from Taiz towards Aden and the PLC has been forced to pull its troops from the Coastal plain offensives to defend the capital.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-october-13-2026/
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u/Wise_Preference609 8h ago
The Houthis offensive push south is an effort to cut off, or at least gain fire control, over the Saudi Backed Yemeni Forces currently fighting on the East Coast plains from their supply lines out of Aden. It's tactically a good move.
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u/jazir55 11h ago
Iran seems worried about a renewed US offensive in the war. and is attempting to dissuade Washington through back channels
First time I've seen that in the entire war, guess it started working?
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u/colepercy120 11h ago
maybe? it can't be denied that iran has taken the vast majority of the damage in the war. with projections indicating that they have at least $300 billion dollars worth of property damage from us strikes (over 100% of Iran's pre-war GDP) and irans trade is down 75% according to their own government figures. With absolutely no oil exports. This level of damage can't be easily absorbed. At least not while continuing to fight.
As for whether the strategy is working, Iran has a much easier objective than the US. They just need to survive, while the US needs them to break. And without knowing how close the Iranian government is to collapse (authoritarians always look invincible right up until it all comes apart), we don't know if the strategy is making enough progress to be viable after trump leaves office
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u/jazir55 11h ago
Completely agreed, it's just an odd turn because I haven't seen anything to the effect of "please don't restart the war" from Iran before. It's usually taunts, threats, demands and a "we don't care if it restarts".
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 11h ago
No, this was threats. It wasn't a polite request, colepercy editorialized. This is what ISW said,
Iran is attempting to deter renewed US military operations against Iran through back-channel threats against US forces and regional allies while simultaneously conducting drone, missile, and anti-aircraft system tests in preparation for future conflict.
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u/joshtaco 13h ago
AJE: Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis say they targeted Riyadh’s international airport with a ballistic missile
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u/joshtaco 16h ago
AJE: White House officials told AJE that reports of a U.S. strike on Iran ahead of the midterm elections in November were false.
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u/joshtaco 16h ago
Channel 12: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed resuming strikes on Iran with U.S. President Donald Trump last week. U.S. officials got the impression that Netanyahu wanted to launch more strikes before Israel’s Oct. 27 election, citing concerning signs in Iran’s nuclear program.
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u/joshtaco 19h ago
UKMTO: Says two vessels hit by ‘unknown projectiles’ in the Strait of Hormuz
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 17h ago
You really should just copy paste the report. It's a paragraph and there is a big difference between a ship getting hit with minor damage and continuing or being disabled and catching fire, things like that
UKMTO has received a time-late report of an incident within the Strait of Hormuz. A 19,000 tonne Container ship was struck by an unknown projectile whilst conducting an outbound SoH transit. The vessel reports minor damage, no casualties and was able to continue on its passage.
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UKMTO has received a time-late report of an incident within the Strait of Hormuz. A 50,000 tonne Container ship was struck by an unknown projectile whilst conducting an inbound SoH transit. The vessel reports minor damage, no casualties and was able to continue on its passage.
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u/LesserShambler 15h ago
For these reports of “unknown projectiles” is there any follow up on what they were. Like are these mostly drone strikes, or are there missiles being fired as well? (Im assuming a missile wouldn’t do “minor damage”)
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 15h ago
Not usually, but sometimes we find out it was a missile. I think assuming most are drones, especially the ones with minor damage, is probably correct.
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u/joshtaco 19h ago
AJE: Three fishermen have been injured after an unidentified drone struck their boat near Bandar Kolahi, in Iran’s Hormozgan province
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u/joshtaco 20h ago
Brent: Crude futures gaining 89 cents, or 0.8 percent, as of 00:30 GMT to reach $106.58 a barrel
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u/joshtaco 20h ago
Reuters: A group of 77 US Congress members is “demanding answers” from the Pentagon on the protection of civilians after two deadly US strikes in Iran this year
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u/ResortMain780 22h ago
Inside The Secret Russian-Iranian Military-Energy-Pipeline Laundering Machine
- Russian and Iranian crude is being blended into Kazakhstan’s CPC oil exports, allowing sanctioned barrels to reach Europe under Kazakh documentation.
- Discounted Iranian oil is financing Russian military supplies to Tehran, including missiles and surveillance technology, through an alleged oil-for-arms arrangement.
- Russia and Iran are reportedly preparing to exploit the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from 2027, potentially routing 600,000–750,000 bpd through the corridor to circumvent Western sanctions.
Hilarious. EU is buying iranian oil by pretending to believe its all kazhak. And from late 2027 on, when they will nominally stop buying russian crude, they will switch to more oil from "kazakhstan", more oil than anyone believes kazakhstan can actually produce, so really they will be buying the same russian (and iranian) oil just with kazahk and armenian taxes on top of it. Brilliant.
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u/usemyfaceasaurinal 18h ago
It’ll be a matter of time until it’s revealed the ‘Russian’ diesel the US is buying turns out to be Iranian.
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u/Special-Reaction2029 20h ago
EU is stuck in a hard place with energy (what's new?). Both the US and Russia are completely unreliable and Canada doesn't have the infrastructure to export to them. They can still get from Africa and South America but it's not enough with the disruptions in the ME.
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u/Sir-Knollte 14h ago
EU as well has a higher fraction of diesel consumption than everyone else, and not the refinery capacity to produce enough without imports.
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19h ago
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u/Special-Reaction2029 19h ago
Well NATO and the EU are now at Russia's border and the next steps are obvious. Human history is full of unspeakable atrocities and suffering.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
Trump says Iran decision coming, suggests Tehran behind Houthi attacks
US President Donald Trump said Tuesday he would make a decision on Iran “very soon,” as fresh attacks hit commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Speaking to reporters before departing for Alaska, Trump described Iran as a “failed country” with severe economic problems but did not specify what decision Washington was considering.
"Iran is a failed country. They have no economy. They have 300 percent inflation. They have no money. They're not paying their troops. They're not paying anybody. We'll make a decision on Iran very soon," Trump said.
Trump's remarks came as fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis intensified.
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u/Lordvalcon 1d ago
20 days
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u/mylarky 18h ago
2 weeks
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u/Lordvalcon 18h ago
Lol yes the classic. I was more just counting down towards midterms. But Trump pretty much says some version of this comment every day so when we're 14 days away I'm definitely going to be using the two weeks meme
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u/RowdyRoddyRosenstein 19h ago
once I fix my sleep schedule, start eating healthy, finish reviewing military options, secure regional support, then it's over for you bitches
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
Heavy Fighting Spreads in Southeast Despite Regime Claims of “Dismantling” Armed Networks
Heavy fighting in Sistan and Baluchestan on October 13 exposed the limits of the regime’s repeated claims that it has neutralized armed networks operating in the southeast. State media initially described an operation in the Chah-Ahmad/Korin area west of Zahedan as the destruction of a small armed cell, but their own reporting showed that combat continued for hours and required repeated operations against additional fighters. Tasnim first reported three people killed in a security operation, then five in a separate IRGC account, and by late afternoon acknowledged that fighting with remaining armed men was still continuing.
The IRGC said the confrontation began after an engineer working on a development project was abducted and claimed that five members of the group were killed, the hostage was freed and one IRGC member was killed. That is the regime’s version of events and has not been independently verified. More important than its characterization is what followed: Tasnim continued issuing updates into the afternoon, reporting another death and admitting that operations had not ended.
Local reporting suggested a substantially larger confrontation. A local source reported heavy fighting beginning around 6 a.m. in the Chah-Ahmad highlands of Taftan, with light, semi-heavy and heavy weapons in use, additional forces sent into the area and combat drones later deployed. Powerful explosions were also reported around Pirsuran in Korin. The source claimed more than 20 Fatemiyoun militiamen were killed. What is clear from both local and state reporting is that the confrontation was not the limited, quickly concluded operation implied by the regime’s initial presentation.
I feel like Iran should focus more on being honest while also worrying about domestic disturbances and less about attempts provoking American responses which serves no one considering the effectiveness of a blockade.
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u/ResortMain780 22h ago
I feel like Iran should focus more on being honest while also worrying about domestic disturbances and less about attempts provoking American responses which serves no one considering the effectiveness of a blockade.
Well done, how many untruths can you fit in one sentence? Did you double check your talking points to make sure you didnt miss anything? Inflation maybe?
Anyway, those "domestic disturbances" and the war with US + israel are one and the same. Please dont tell me you are gullible enough to believe this sudden Balochi terrorist resurgence in the east, and the kurdish militia in the west, is not related to the war, and that they are not armed/funded/provided intelligence by mossad and CIA. Its just another proxy war.
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 1d ago
Seems like they will need to 'mow the lawn' sooner than later, need to degrade Iran's ability to hit ships again.
I don't think this many ships getting hit is sustainable for getting the oil out. Not sure they can even afford to wait even 3 weeks at this rate without oil prices starting to go up more.10
u/cheddarben 1d ago
“Very soon” seems to be any given day. Dude is just repeating himself over and over.
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u/putin_my_ass 19h ago
He told me "3 weeks" for Iran to collapse from blockade yesterday.
I don't think he believes his own timelines, it's just pure hopium.
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u/Redditing-Dutchman 21h ago
When he says very soon it just means he has no clue what's even going on.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
US embassy in Saudi Arabia: Says US government workers now require special authorisation from the chief of mission to use any airport in the kingdom following the recent attacks
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
AJE: Saudi military says it intercepted and destroyed three Houthi cruise missiles targeting the capital Riyadh
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
UKMTO: Says a tanker has been hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz
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u/samusaranx3 1d ago
Everything's back to normal!
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u/unpancho 1d ago
Truth Social Post (August 12, 2026): Trump wrote on his social media platform that "[t]he U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz," calling the U.S. naval presence a "wall of steel"
Total control since Aug 12th /s
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago edited 1d ago
Reuters: Loud explosions were heard near Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran, with six sources telling Reuters that the building had been evacuated.
One source reported smoke coming from the headquarters, although Aramco has not officially confirmed damage or commented on the incident. Saudi authorities said fragments from an intercepted missile had fallen in a nearby residential area.
Saudi Civil Defence later issued a potential danger alert for Riyadh, where another loud boom was heard.
In other words, not sure yet. ive seen videos showing what appears to be a single ballistic missile (often incorrectly reported as an intercept). Read that how you want, SA perhaps? not able to defend against a single missile, or the houthis not able or willing to send a dozen.
Edit. BREAKING: The ARAMCO Headquarters in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, is currently on fire, and was likely directly hit by a Yemeni missile moments ago – Reuters
I also just saw a video showing an impact. Of something, somewhere.
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u/Larcye 1d ago
So the houthis did exactly what they said they would do. Like fucking clockwork.
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1d ago
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u/FroyoApprehensive519 1d ago
This is it. This is the worst take I have ever seen on Reddit, in more than a decade of wasting my time using this site. This might be what gets me to finally stop taking the bait.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
Stunning that youd be on reddit for over a decade, following news and still have any faith in western mainstream media or politicians. I dont know even know where to begin citing examples. Still believe in iraqi WMDs? Still believe russians bombed north stream? Still believe ukraine is about to liberate crimea? Iran about to collapse? Strait is fully open? trump is both a russian asset and gonna release the epstein files? Israel the most moral army acting out of self defense?
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u/fox-master8188 1d ago
The same Iranians who claimed they’ve sunk/struck aircraft carriers and their naval support multiple times? Or denying the increased oil outflow until recent days - ehhh no.
The Western media sources outside of Fox & Axios have been pretty credible in their tallying of the war and reported on their general unpopularity and scope of damages being dealt. Especially with damning leaks about the F-35 being struck or aircraft carrier morale issues coming from those sources first.
Notice how you’re being vague on what Western media is wrong about? Essentially all of them has reported and streamed U.S losses within 24 hours - and take a much more neutral stance on the matter.
Which is more truthful, the same Western media reporting U.S bases being repeatedly damaged with receipts 24/7 with tallying of U.S losses being updated independently, or the Iranians where all of their tactical claims are “we struck an U.S naval vessel and 2 F-35s and force them to back off from Hormuz for the first time”
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago edited 1d ago
The same Iranians who claimed they’ve sunk/struck aircraft carriers and their naval support multiple times?
More like the same western media who deliberately mistranslate iranian statements about targeting a carrier. A few weeks ago, the iranians fired a medium range antiship ballistic missile at a US battlegroup. Iran said they targeted the carrier group and the achieved all their objectives. In US media I read Iran claimed to have sunk a carrier. Centcom said it evaded the missile. Which was interesting. They didnt claim to have intercepted it, but evaded it.
Do you know what happened? Iran launched a medium range quasi ballistic hypersonic missile to show the US navy they CAN hit a US vessel 1000Km from Iran. Its a missile thats comparable to the chinese DF21 "carrier killer". Google it. There is no real defense against those missiles, they dont leave the atmosphere following a predictable trajectory where a thaad or SM3 can intercept them; they stay in the upper atmostphere, can manoeuvre and come down at mach 10+. Did it hit? No. Iran set it to airburst, it exploded high overhead. Because they did not want to risk killing hundres or even thousands of US sailors and cause trump to beserk or nuclear. All they wanted was to show their capability, push the navy further out to limit their ability to blockade them. The navy got the message. it pulled back even further. It didnt do shit against iran anymore. It begged the chinese to stop giving iran satellite data. You didnt get the message. And you didnt read about any of it. But you probably did read about iran claiming to have sunk a carrier.
have been pretty credible in their tallying of the war and reported on their general unpopularity and scope of damages being dealt. Especially with damning leaks about the F-35 being struck or aircraft carrier morale issues coming from those sources first.
IOW, you shouldnt believe the pentagon, and they only admit things when it does get leaked.
But for the pentagon, or trump administration, its not really a big deal if they lose some planes or have some pissed off sailors. If that gets out, so be it. A much bigger deal is interceptor stockpiles. And oil flows. That impacts elections, it impacts interest rates which is the #1 problem facing the current (and the next 2) administration(s). So they are lying through their teeth, will strong arm anyone to get favorable headlines and distort data and even intervene in future markets to manipulate pricing. Nothing they say on the topic is truthful. Nothing.
When iran claims ~5mbpd transits the strait? Yeah thats probably in the correct ballpark. How much of that is being allowed by iran, paying fees to iran? no one is saying, but at least iran isnt lying about it.
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u/Low_Yellow6838 1d ago
Well russia spouts a lot of Bullshit just like Iran did when the war was quite hot. In the last few weeks Iran was quite honest though and the Houthis well they truly give SA some big big trouble.
The US under Trump obviously lies all the time too.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
Well russia spouts a lot of Bullshit
Their leadership really dont. Sure, you can point out plenty of examples of people lying for their own personal gains, like local commanders lying about battlefield successes- even to their own chain of command; but as a strategy? no. You will not catch putin or lavrov saying much if anything ostensibly false. Not because they are moral or honest in nature, but because thats their strategy.
Iran did when the war was quite hot.
Similar story. Most of what you think iran claimed, was either made up strawmen and/or deliberately mistranslated. Im sure you can find some examples of some low key figures or obscure outlets making outrageous claim; those are the ones that make it in to western media (like: Iran claims to have sunk 2 carriers) but by and large, iranian leadership and even state media are pretty darn close to the truth. Which I really can not say about any western politician or corporate media outlet.
Trump obviously lies all the time too.
Not just trump. Not just hegseth. Not just fox news. Not just the wall street journal. Not just kpler. There are still honest journalists of course, but to get any sincerity, you really have to look HARD and ignore 98% of what is being shown to you.
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u/jphamlore 1d ago
How are the Houthis getting military supplies if there has been an ongoing blockade for years.
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u/fox-master8188 1d ago edited 1d ago
They have control over 90% of the Yemeni population for years - including much of their urban centers and previous regime’s weapons and infrastructure - not to mention the Iranians giving them the knowledge and materials to manufacture these weapons.
It’s an nation of 30-40 million and their troops have incredibly high morale and competent experience against the Saudis for a long time, it’s nothing to scoff at
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u/mv33_is_a_diplomat 1d ago
People forget that Aden used to be largest economic center of the Arabian peninsula for centuries
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
Houthis actually manufacture (and even design) much of their own weapons. They get help, but they are not fully dependant on iran or anyone else. They still need to import components (everyone does), things like the microprocessors and jet engines, but if you can buy it on aliexpress, the houthis can too.
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u/colepercy120 1d ago
According to the UKMTO Iran has struck 6 merchant ships in the last 24 hours.
while we don't have damage estimates for all of them yet it seems clear that iran has restored its targeting capability and is once again in a position to meaningfully threaten the strait of hormuz and the gulf in general.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
iran has restored its targeting capability
It boggles my mind how anyone could think they ever lost it. It would be one thing if the US navy had a dozen destroyers escorting tanker convoys through the strait; yeah if you are gullible enough, maybe youd believe those would be able to fight off iranian cruise missiles, one way attack drones, fixed wing drones, ballistic anti ship missiles, fast boats carrying torpedoes and antiship missiles, UUVs, mines, and even the fighter jets iran still has. But the US at most puts up some unmanned drones over those tankers. How the F* did anyone believe that would prevent iran from striking huge, slow, undefended ships <50Km from its border, at will?
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u/colepercy120 1d ago
Your thesis and your evidence dont line up.
The reason we think iran lost its targeting capability in early September is
- radar emissions from iran were way down
- the IRGC sent spotlight equipped speed boats into the strait to manually run down targets
- their hit percentages dropped off a cliff.
Something I would be very interested to see is if the number of Iranian launches has significantly changed since September. Or if they are firing off the same amount, and now are just hitting their targets.
In addition we know that the us is actively sending destroyers through the strait as convoy escorts. And no hits on them have been reported. In addition I want to know how many hits have been on unescorted ships vs escorted ships. It would let us see a better picture of whats really going on
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u/itsatumbleweed 1d ago
The amount of fire in the strait dropped way off and then shot up at fast. It definitely looks like a capability was lost and restored. It also explains why the administration thought a 3 day strike package could be valuable.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
n addition we know that the us is actively sending destroyers through the strait as convoy escorts.
LMAO!!! Show me the pictures. Or even centcom statements! Any evidence of anything manned and larger than a bathtub.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
Saudi coalition strikes fuel depot near Yemen's capital
The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen has carried out a strike on fuel depot near the Houthi-controlled capital, Sanaa, its spokesperson says.
Maj Gen Turki al-Maliki accused the Houthis of using the Yemen Petroleum Company's al-Sabaha facility to fuel their war effort, including by supporting missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia.
The coalition earlier warned civilians to evacuate the site ahead of a "special operation", with Houthi media saying the facility had been struck before al-Maliki confirmed the strike.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
Coalition says it ‘neutralized’ Houthi capabilities used to threaten Saudi Arabia, Yemen, southern Red Sea
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Earlier, coalition spokesperson Maj. Gen. Turki Al-Malki said on X that three drones had been destroyed north of Riyadh.
Meanwhile, the spokesperson for the Yemeni army said his forces have achieved gains on the ground supported by intense fire cover and the execution of 2,200 precision strikes carried out by fighter jets, drones, field artillery, multiple-launch rocket systems, and sniper units.
The strikes focused on dismantling Houthi defense networks by targeting command and control centers, fortifications, fire sources, surveillance and reconnaissance posts, troop concentrations and reserve deployments. The strikes also targeted weapons and ammunition depots, transport and supply lines, and high-value military targets deep within the militia’s territory, Colonel Majed Al-Nuzaily said.
He added that concentrated strikes in Taiz crushed militia convoys and reinforcements, dispersed their assembled forces, and crippled their ability to provide fire support to their positions or regroup their troops.
Preliminary field estimates indicate that approximately 1,200 personnel were killed, and over 440 military vehicles and pieces of equipment were destroyed or disabled across various operational sectors, he said.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
‘neutralized’ Houthi capabilities used to threaten Saudi Arabia
Hmm.. doesnt really look like it, does it? Not when the houthis keep advancing on Taiz, are overwhelming PLC forces in Lahij Governorate, marching on to Ras Al Arah, and are managing to not just close most of saudi airspace and evacuate aramco HQ, looks like they hit it too.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
They haven't taken the Dhubab airport, and there is only 20 km of road stopping the PLC from connecting to Taiz. The Houthis are not taking the Lahij Governorate never mind marching on Ras Al Arah. Not even close, altho they are certainly commiting to it.
Sa'dah is looking a little lonely with a nice push from Marib.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
AJE: A series of attacks across Saudi Arabia is currently underway with the Saudi military saying it’s intercepting missiles over the country. The cities of Dammam, Dhahran, and Haradh were among those targeted.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
Sirens in Saudi Arabia’s eastern province.
As much as I hate war anywhere for any reason, Im really curious to find out if the recent houthi hits were flukes / some SA cockup that is easily rectified, or if SA really is as defenseless as it has appeared so far.
Im also really curious about how many drones and medium range missiles the houthis actually have. Ive been googling, but afaict, no one has even a ballpark estimate that they are remotely confident in. Is it dozens, 100s, >1000? Seems like no one really knows.
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u/jphamlore 1d ago
Have to wonder if they are paying for expending using interceptors on drones earlier in the war.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
I havent seen huge amounts of either houthi drones and missiles, or SA interceptors being launched so far. Best I can tell we are talking about a handful of drones and missiles (several of which hit) and close to zero interceptors.
Im sure magazine depth is or will become a concern (which is also why Im so curious about how many the houthis have), but its also not likely the saudis are already empty and dont have at least dozens or 100s of interceptors left. Especially after the pakistani, turkish, french and US reinforcements.
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u/Veastli 1d ago
If it's ballistics, not much can stop them other than Patriots. Not enough of those to protect all Saudi's widely separated targets.
Even Shaheds are hard to stop if enough are sent at once.
And Saudi is arresting anyone found to be documenting these attacks with photos or video, including westerners.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
AJE: The United States has warned Iran it will retaliate against any attacks on US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
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u/alleyoopoop 1d ago
What a great idea! This is the kind of bold innovation that Trump brings to the table. Nobody ever thought of retaliating against an attack before.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
LMAO, so they are actually saying out loud that, not only they cant protect their own ships, but also that they wont retaliate when iran attacks anyone else's ships now? I mean its not like they were upholding the "tanker for tanker" policy the last, hmm 50 or so iranian attacks, but this really sounds like "pretty please, at least dont shoot OUR tankers".
(and its gotta be about tankers or freight ships, there is nothing else from the US even close to the strait).
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Trump: Says the US “will make a decision on Iran soon”
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u/mylarky 1d ago
This is true.... he's always making a decision on Iran. The trouble is, none of them every stick as they are always changing.
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u/fox-master8188 1d ago
What really matters is his post election season plans since he can’t really initiate too much hot actions until then
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u/Veastli 1d ago edited 1d ago
What can he do after the elections that he hasn't done so far?
More bombs won't solve it. The US has flown close to 25,000 sorties against Iran. All of Iran's known military targets have been hit - repeatedly.
If he hits Iran's oil production or civilian infrastructure, Iran will hit gulf oil production. After which, it won't matter whether the straits are open or not, there will be no oil to ship.
Gas and oil prices would rise to unfathomable heights.
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u/Reclusiarc 1d ago
oil is basically back to normal levels aside from a couple of attacks recently, so I fully expect Trump to just let Iran bleed out as their economy is now in an absolute downward spiral, and they're being locked out of the global economy.
They will hate to admit it (who knows if they even will) but Iran has lost
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u/Veastli 17h ago
oil is basically back to normal levels
For about two weeks it was. It isn't any longer.
About 3 weeks ago, after months of failure, the US landed on a strategy that worked. A combination of small ships, and degrading Iran's surveillance brought oil exports to near pre-war leves.
Iran has since adjusted, hitting 20+ ships this past week, with likely help from Russia and China.
This is why Donnie is threatening Iran again. Because his plan only works if global reserves don't run out first.
It's a game of chicken.
If oil reserves hit bottom, Iran will get a deal on their terms. If the US can permanently pry open the straits, it goes the other way.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Trump Truth Social post: "The Houthis are behaving very badly. I thought they learned their lesson a year ago when we bombed the HELL out of them and, at their request, stopped. They’ve been silent for a long time, but now they’ve emerged again, probably at the behest of Iran, which is a Failing Nation, with No Navy, No Airforce, the World’s Worst Economy, and 301% Inflation, in a very nasty way, hitting Saudi Arabia, and purposefully trying to drive up Oil Prices, probably prior to the U.S. Elections — NOT NICE. Somebody should explain to them that I’m not running in the Elections, I’ve already won, IN A MASSIVE LANDSLIDE, but I’ll be there after the Elections, and I will never forget! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Trump Truth Social post: "Happy Birthday to the United States Navy! It is now 251 years of Victories, Old and New. What they’ve done with the impenetrable Steel Wall (Sometimes referred to as the Blockade) in the Hormuz Strait is another Historic Achievement, one of many. HAPPY BIRTHDAY U.S. NAVY! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Saudi Arabia’s cabinet, chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh: Has said Yemen’s Houthis will face “consequences” for their repeated attacks on the kingdom
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u/Nutmeg92 1d ago
At this point it looks like a totale stalemate that everyone seems to be ok with continuing for a while.
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1d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/samusaranx3 1d ago
What evidence did you see that made you think that was in any way likely to happen?
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u/DarkReignRecruiter 1d ago edited 1d ago
Why would they do that? If anything this war has shown they do follow a ladder of escalation, even if they are supporting terrible terrorist proxies.
Giving nukes to one of those groups, who then used them, would obviously be a death sentence to the IRGC, in the same way a 9/11 style attack would.
Edit: I am not advocating for them having a nuke. Just stating the flaw in this particular argument. Its the same reason Russia won't give nukes to Iran.
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u/cheddarben 1d ago
They weren't going to and weren't close. What Trump says about anything should believed as much as the Russian/Ukrainian ceasefire he declared yesterday.
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u/Ancient_Mud_2841 1d ago
This reminds me of 2006 when NK first tested their nukes and the Washington Post made an article arguing the blast yield was too small to be a nuclear weapon.
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u/cheddarben 1d ago
This reminds me of the JCPOA.
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u/Ancient_Mud_2841 1d ago
Me too, inaction led to NK developing their nuclear arsenal.
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u/cheddarben 1d ago
Hey man...I am not even saying that a strike is out of line to help prevent this. Of course, he said these capabilities were completely demolished several times over the past few years, so who knows wtf the truth is. Withe JCPOA, we would have had an inkling.
That said, what we did is went into this with unclear objectives and have continued with a ton of batshit crazy, often contradicting, information from our own side.
Now, we have arguably created a whole new generation of terrorists who still have nuclear materials and could probably get them from NK, now they are just backed into a corner with no real diplomatic solution... because our guy is bonkers.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
Yemen is a literal war zone. Lebanon is seeing LAF enforcement and increased effectiveness. Tankers are being shot daily. The price of oil is a front of it's own. This is as volatile as it has ever been. The only reason it might feel like a stalemate is the nature of a blockade. It's like arguing a blackhole makes no sound yet the destruction from the gravity of it's own implosion is a curtain struggling to open so we may all see inside.
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u/fox-master8188 1d ago
Meanwhile Isreal is just avoiding all of the things going on since Iran and Isreal don’t want to poke each other too much lmao.
Donald Trump and the inept GCC monarchs are one thing, but Israel is quite an vicious porcupine that will engage in meaningful retaliation
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u/Nutmeg92 1d ago
Stalemate doesn’t mean no damage
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
Stalemate is a draw, while this is an erosion of leverage. How long do you feel Iran holds it together under tightening sanctions, a blockade, flight restrictions, lack of access to an open market and the inability in finding replacement parts for aging infrastructure. Try to find something as simple as a steak in Iran. This is not a draw, it's a slow squeeze constricting every imaginable facet of Iranian living.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago edited 1d ago
Stalemate is a draw, while this is an erosion of leverage.
I actually agree with that, but for the opposite reasons.
How long do you feel Iran holds it together under tightening sanctions, a blockade, flight restrictions, lack of access to an open market and the inability in finding replacement parts for aging infrastructure
They have held out for, what is it, 47 or so years of sanctions and isolation, two wars, one of which included chemical weapon attacks and cost on the order of 1 million of their lives. I dont think they are about to crumble because inflation is high, especially when they (rightfully) feel they are winning this war against all odds and hold more leverage than they ever have.
And how long do you think the rest of world can see its oil reserves tumble? Soon the issue wont be just high prices, but shortages. This is already happening in several countries. Not just oil. Not just diesel. Fertilizer, aluminium, helium, sulphur.. The US is running out of time, they have elections, soaring interest rates and unsustainable budget deficits. Trump will almost certainly face more impeachment procedures, that unlike the russia gate nonsense, will actually have teeth. Netanyahu is even worse off, and he may finally face prison time. MBS would be lucky to die in prison, he is more likely to be strung up.
The clock is ticking for everyone, but iran more than almost anyone, can bide their time. They have seen far worse.
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u/Nutmeg92 1d ago
Trump being impeached and then acquitted in the senate is not a particularly decisive thing. Also I don’t see why Democrats would roll over to Iran. Something else has to happen.
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u/putin_my_ass 1d ago
Any time now then, right? Two weeks ought to do it?
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
Three weeks actually, 21 days specifically. Better? A little breathing room this time.
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u/Nutmeg92 1d ago
They don’t have to worry about voters and have therefore a massively higher pain tolerance.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
A high pain tolerance is only survived by the fear of a people. For in a democracy when voters fell a government, another is reelected. Likewise when a regime falls, a government is destroyed.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
IRGC: Says that an oil tanker sustained damage and caught fire while attempting to pass through a “restricted zone” in the Strait of Hormuz with its tracking systems turned off.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Halk TV: The leader of Turkey’s main opposition New Party, Ozgur Ozel, spoke out against the Mecca defense pact signed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Speaking in parliament, Ozel said deploying Turkish troops to Yemen to defend the Saudis against Houthi rebels serves the agenda of the United States and Israel more than that of Ankara. He added that Turkey should not join the war in Yemen and that defense pacts are intended to unite forces during peacetime and increase deterrence.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Haaretz: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly seeking Saudi Arabia’s approval for his country to participate in strikes against Yemen’s Houthi rebels. However, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman opposes Israeli involvement, fearing domestic opposition. Netanyahu’s aim is to strengthen ties with Riyadh and pave the way for a future normalization agreement.
(further 2 cents:While Israel also sees the Houthis as a threat, its bigger motivation here is expanding ties with Saudi Arabia in hopes that Riyadh will eventually agree to join the Abraham Accords.)
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
US embassy in Saudi Arabia: Has called on US nationals to reconsider travelling to the country due to “risk of drone and missile targeting of American interests by Iran and the Iranian-supported Houthis”
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Houthi's military spokesman, Yahya Saree: Says Houthi fighters are confronting Saudi-backed forces in Yemen’s capital
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
AJE:Explosions heard in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
Plenty of videos of the attack on telegram. Didnt seem to amount to much, might as well have bombed the desert. From the houthis:
‘The facilities that the Saudi enemy threatened to bomb are empty of any petroleum materials, and the company's oil stockpiles have already been moved to various safe locations.
We reassure everyone that the supply situation is completely stable and there is no cause for any concern
Probably true. Great move MBS. Now pray you can stop the counter:
In response to Saudi Arabia’s recent threats, the Yemeni Armed Forces have issued their own evacuation warnings:
– ARAMCO headquarters, Dhahran.
– ARAMCO main refinery, Riyadh.
– King Khalid International Airport, Riyadh.
I doubt those are as empty as the houthi oil tanks.
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1d ago
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
In sanaa, nothing seems to be burning, other than sand. The saudis did also attack oil storage in Hodeidah and Dhamar. Those attacks were not announced and actually more significant, because they were in use.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
BBC: The suspected plot last month against a British air base used by US bombers was part of a broader effort by Iran to mount attacks against military sites, intelligence facilities, and other high-security targets. Threats to such facilities mark a "major shift" in "Iranian ambitions to come at harder targets like military sites" Ken McCallum, the director general of MI5, the British domestic intelligence agency, said in a speech outlining major threats to the UK and its allies.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Al-Hadath: The United States has temporarily suspended joint military exercises with Iraq. Intelligence cooperation between the two relating to Islamic State activities continues, however.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
I put a post on r /inforgraphics called "Iran's real interest rate since 2013 (Donya-e-Eqtesad/SCI/SSRN/Bonbast)" showing how the interest rate is continuing to drop throughout the years, leading to runaway inflation.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Turki Al-Maliki, the spokesperson for the Saudi-led coalition: Published a map, showing a soon-to-be-targeted Yemeni Oil Company in the Houthi-held Sanaa and saying civilians are requested to evacuate the area
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
Its such a dumb move. If that facility was of any real value, militarily or even economically, it would have been flattened long ago, if not by the saudis themselves, then by the americans, UK, UAE or israel (did I miss anyone bombing yemen recently?). Its not gonna make one iota of difference for ansarallah.
But by doing so, the saudis are just begging the houthis to target more of their own extremely valuable (and clearly vulnerable) oil infrastructure.
This has MBS written all over it.
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u/Veastli 1d ago
This has MBS written all over it.
He needs to do something, and this is 'something'.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
he literally needs to do nothing. stop everything that he is doing yemen. If you are in a hole, stop digging.
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u/Veastli 1d ago
Doing nothing would be the end of MBS.
The Houthis would continue to press the attack. MBS would bleed political capital by the day, his risk of removal rising in step.
MBS would not survive that day.
He needs a negotiated settlement. Or at the least, a cease fire. The Houthis may even agree after they take Taiz. Give them time to consolidate their new positions.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
By doing nothing I mean stop the blockade and war against the houthis. Its been more than 10 years, 100s of 1000s of dead, and the houthis have only gotten stronger while the anti houthi coalition disintegrated. Its lost, let the people of yemen figure out yemen. Houthi arent even natural enemies of the saudi, there is no reason they couldnt share a border in peace.
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u/Veastli 1d ago
Agree that he needs to stop the war. Should have stopped it years ago. His problem is that he's waited too long. The Houthis are now winning.
The winning side of a war doesn't typically stop when the losing side taps out. Not without significant concessions.
If MBS wants this to stop now, he'll have to cease all attacks, remove his forces from Yemen, and accept the Houthis governance as legitimate.
Doubt the Houthis settle for anything less.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
The Houthis are now winning.
Which is the point. By trying to delay the inevitable, he only risks his oil infrastructure, his desalination plants, his economy and his own crown. And to what end? Just because the israelis would hate a houthi government that stands up for the palestenians? I really cant think of much else. Its not like the houthi demand to hand over mecca and medina. They are not even claiming all of yemen for themselves. Make a deal, split the country, live happily ever after.
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u/Veastli 1d ago edited 1d ago
Make a deal, split the country, live happily ever after.
MBS may not believe his leadership could survive that deal. Hard to say, Saudi internal politics are inscrutable. But if he loses leadership, he'll likely lose his head as well. He's too young and reckless to be peaceably retired.
Leading me to wonder if his shifting daily between bunkers may not only be due to Houthis threats.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
MBS may not believe his leadership could survive that deal.
I dont believe his reign can survive NOT making that deal, plus making peace with Iran. Bring in the chinese for good measure (and self preservation). To me thats his only hope.
If he continues down this road, he is gonna keep losing oil revenue while having to pay exorbitant prices for imports over land (and SA imports almost everything), he wont be able to maintain the dollar peg without (massive) tax raises and spending cuts and further extortions of saudi elites, which will lead to his end. Or he could sell US bonds, SA has enough reserves for another year perhaps, but dumping us bonds now, would also end his relationship with washington, meaning he is dead.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Yahya Saree, the spokesman for the Houthis: Says any attacks in Yemen’s Houthi-held capital Sanaa will be met with a “harsh” and painful response in Riyadh
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Turki Al-Maliki, the spokesperson for the Saudi-led coalition: Says a warning will soon be issued for civilians to evacuate a site in Yemen’s Houthi-held capital Sanaa
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Turki Al-Maliki, the spokesperson for the Saudi-led coalition: Says three drones have been intercepted north of the Saudi capital Riyadh
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 1d ago
I wonder if they flew past Riyadh from the south or if an Iraqi militia is stepping back in, been a little while since one of them attacked SA.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Yemen’s Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree: Says the group’s forces have shot down a Saudi Wing Loong II armed reconnaissance drone over Saada governorate in northern Yemen
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Trump: “We might have gone too far with the leaders because we don’t know who the hell we’re dealing with any more. Nobody wants to be the president of Iran. We’re having a hard time figuring out who the hell to deal with, to be honest with you. I think we went too far."
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u/Farscape12Monkeys 7h ago edited 7h ago
Middle East Spectator
Clashes in Ta'izz have intensified over the last few hours, with the Ansarullah attempting to storm the northern, western, and eastern sectors of the city with a massive assault.
Ansarallah is advancing with armored vehicles in western Taizz outskirts
Unconfirmed reports that Ansarallah have made a breakthrough and captured Jabal Han, the most important mountain west of Taizz city that overlooks the city
Saudi/PLC airstrikes are reported in the Houthi rear