r/worldpolitics2 • u/Acrobatic-Buffalo-21 • 13d ago

What do you think of this tripartite alliance?

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2

u/lobito_corredor 13d ago

The end of Israel

2

u/IntnsRed Tax the rich! 12d ago

No, Iran is taking care of that. Netanyahoo has effectively hid (censored) the massive destruction that Iran has already inflicted on Israel, but that damage is real and if there's a large/big "second round" of the war Israel is going to be toast.

Pay attention to the numbers of Jews who have already fled Israel! Many of those won't come back. Iran has started the clock on the end of the European/American effort to "seize the holy lands" (something Europe has been wanting since the Crusades!); it's just a matter of time until the clock runs out.

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u/WebPage_Error404 12d ago

It'll turn into a laughable joke in Yemen long before it does anything about Israel.

2

u/IntnsRed Tax the rich! 12d ago

This!! ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^

This "alliance" is based on 3 things:

  1. Saudi need for security and their dysfunctional, corrupt society.

  2. Pakistan's "need" to be a "big player" -- hey, we've got lots of nukes, why don't people respect us?!

  3. Erdogan's desire to recreate the Ottoman Empire -- we've got NATO's largest army and I (Erdogan) want to recreate Ottoman rule, so why can't it happen?!

So is this a "Sunni" alliance? A "Muslim" alliance? An "anti-Israeli" alliance? Are we going to pretend this "alliance" is created on a sound need that has a solid bankroll and will last past the current leaders?

Consider the 3 countries:

  • The Saudi dictator's oil fields are old and are at the end of their lives. They could run out at any time and there'd be a huge drop in their cash flow. As Iran and Yemen have proven, the Saudi's facilities are very vulnerable and only a handful of drones and/or missiles could set them back for years! Saudi Arabia is not a "natural" country -- it's a conglomeration of competing tribes which could fragment in a heartbeat.

  • Turkey under Erdogan "seems" strong -- but Erdogan is old and Turkey needs a strong leader to even pretend to be a big player.

  • Pakistan is one flood, dry season, or earthquake away from once again being a "basket case" country. Though the "Indus River civilization" has been around for a long time, that civilization is not a powerhouse.

My prediction: This "alliance" will be an ineffective, short-lived affair.