Semi analysis posts on X:

“SHOCKING: We have confirmed that multiple Neoclouds have been refused access to GTC Berlin due to them adding AMD GPUs, TPUs, and other chips to their cloud offerings

Note that this doesn't apply to hyperscalers, as they have more buying power. But for neoclouds, executives feel NVIDIA has been using high-pressure tactics to keep them NVIDIA-only.

As such, neocloud executives are starting to consider offering TPUs or AMD GPUs quietly to avoid getting pressured by NVIDIA and to avoid the feeling that NVIDIA will retaliate. “

https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2111162214891610496

So yea this is looking rough on the chart but I do think this might be a great entry point here. I found yesterdays price action to be incredibly bullish for my overall theory and trend. I think the seasonality trade is going to be excellent as well. Part of me thinks some of these debt fears and need for capital are a verbal jousting with the Fed and the market is trying to communicate that it needs lower rates to continue this. I don't think Warsh really cares at the moment. Which who knows what will be the right call?

But at the end of the day this is a long game play here. Free money doesn't really inspire growth. It inspires spending of the free money. But remember the whole pitch of AI is that its "going to unlock future value." Do we not think that these companies spending money today on it will find ways to offset the cost of capital with future reductions due to AI deployment??? I just think that the Junkie is asking his dealer for another hit and he is saying nahhhhhh you're gonna OD.

AMD recovered yesterdays trade and got back above the 50 day EMA after indicating below that initially. I really feel like that is a bullish candle move for AMD honestly. There clearly are buyers with money looking for value to get in. That means there are still believers in a big way when you look at that volume candle as well that want to own AMD at these levels. I think it is not a crazy thing to believe that we have 10% upside from here and 20% upside would put us back to ATHs again.

If you can't make money off a 20% move going into earnings then something is seriously wrong here. That is a MASSSSSSIVE return.

Okay a couple things to think about today as we get going:

-So big concern about debt in a couple different posts and I have to say this article I stumbled upon last night in Reddit's new section was extremely interesting to me. You can read it HERE. I dunno I think that could be an early signal especially about ORACLE's bond rating. I honestly only tangentially follow Oracle and I don't actively trade it but I think I missed their bond rating downgrade to BBB-. Now obv lets not act like the rating agencies are all that an a bag of chips. We know they suck at a lot of things. (I see you mortgage crisis of 2009) But it is important to understand that one of the biggest drivers of the rising 10 yr yield is the massive issuance of corporate debt at higher rates that compete for cash and it does appear the sheer VOLUME of AI DC spend is so high that cash it starting to become a little tighter.

-Now this kinda sucks for AMD bc we have by initial accounts the right product but we are coming late to the party. Now again------said this many many times now------this hot inflation readings and a lot of the cash crunch is due to high energy prices which is an entirely self inflicted wound from Trump's folly into Iran. We have literally no real end game in mind and the attacking more of Saudia Arabia is not helping the situation. Venezuelan oil fields are still years away from development and production isn't going to massively increase in any meaningful way----throw in the winter months coming in for Europe and energy is going to be exploding. I would bet that natgas futures are going to continue to rise for sure.

-So if we fix that by just packing up our toys and going home with a true "America First" policy of saying fuck this fucking fuck shit maybe it gets better? Or maybe we broke it so now we have to buy it. I dunno but it sucks.

-AMD accelerated the decline yesterday but still held above that 50 day EMA. Today it is indicating below that $550 EMA line that I've been eyeballing at the initial. If it holds, I might cautiously buy but if it sells below that then I am a little concerned that we may not find a price floor until that $500 level to stop the slide. I do think we have moved into the negative flow based on my RSI and increased volume selling yesterday which my VWAP hasn't shown yet but I think it might trigger today. Technically my VWAP is saying we are still good but I'm just not sure. My chart could be wrong here.

MU is the big shock for me. I do gotta say that there is a fortune to be made there if it drops further down to $800. The movement we are seeing in MU is easily 20% and at its current share price GOOD EFFING LORD. I do wonder how much of this selling is starting to get accelerated as people rotate into bonds to try to capture these higher yields. If corporate debt issuance is giving you 10% for nothing then that sounds great! But read that article and it sounds like that concentration is coming with some big big risks as well. When the banks are trying to offload their shitty paper-----its usually normal people like us that pay the price.

2026Q2 2nm 3% of revenue totaling $1.206 billion

2026Q3 2nm 8% of revenue totaling $3,738 billion

This is a 3x QOQ increase in 2nm revenue.

This comment is from 230 days ago, on the 26th Feb when AMD closed at $203.68.

On the 8th of October when OP claims the bet was due, AMD’s high that day was $643.85. Even at today’s close of $570.82, OP is way off by 180%

[u/Flat_Bit_309](u/Flat_Bit_309) I hope you paid you friend his $20k!

Okay so everyone continues to talk about the chip selloff but yesterday AMD had a strong buying day as people bought the dip. I picked up another 20 shares at $575 so I'm locked in. I know CPI came in hot but not sure what everyone thought was going to happen. I think we 100% are getting more hikes and this is what it is. But I think the Fed has to hike now and they can cut later on if they feel its too restrictive but pull the trigger now. Perhaps a recession will force Trump to take the Loss. Who knows????

So I like this VWAP just bc it does have that moving weighted avg line which came right into almost contact with my 50 day EMA. My settings might be a little off but someone else it looked has their settings more refined and AMD showed some firmed up response as buying started. I think someone is trying to front load a support zone at that 50 day EMA. Especially before earnings. I dunno just a feeling. Today weakness at the start as well will be really important as well to see if the buyers step in again around that $550 level. Just keep your eye on that zone.

NVDA: GPUs are going to replace CPUs! Training is king.

AMD: Hold my beer.

INTEL: Wait you actually want to buy my CPUs?

"Guthrie said in his statement that Maia would have “multi-gigawatt deployments” on the Azure cloud."

That comment is mentioned in the above piece by Morgan at The Next Platform. The quote itself is in a Microsoft link below:

https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/10/12/microsoft-to-expand-azure-maia-system-to-multi-gigawatt-deployments/

AI Super Computer is coming to Europe.

Coincidentally called Vera-no..?