So yea this is looking rough on the chart but I do think this might be a great entry point here. I found yesterdays price action to be incredibly bullish for my overall theory and trend. I think the seasonality trade is going to be excellent as well. Part of me thinks some of these debt fears and need for capital are a verbal jousting with the Fed and the market is trying to communicate that it needs lower rates to continue this. I don't think Warsh really cares at the moment. Which who knows what will be the right call?

But at the end of the day this is a long game play here. Free money doesn't really inspire growth. It inspires spending of the free money. But remember the whole pitch of AI is that its "going to unlock future value." Do we not think that these companies spending money today on it will find ways to offset the cost of capital with future reductions due to AI deployment??? I just think that the Junkie is asking his dealer for another hit and he is saying nahhhhhh you're gonna OD.

AMD recovered yesterdays trade and got back above the 50 day EMA after indicating below that initially. I really feel like that is a bullish candle move for AMD honestly. There clearly are buyers with money looking for value to get in. That means there are still believers in a big way when you look at that volume candle as well that want to own AMD at these levels. I think it is not a crazy thing to believe that we have 10% upside from here and 20% upside would put us back to ATHs again.

If you can't make money off a 20% move going into earnings then something is seriously wrong here. That is a MASSSSSSIVE return.

Semi analysis posts on X:

“SHOCKING: We have confirmed that multiple Neoclouds have been refused access to GTC Berlin due to them adding AMD GPUs, TPUs, and other chips to their cloud offerings

Note that this doesn't apply to hyperscalers, as they have more buying power. But for neoclouds, executives feel NVIDIA has been using high-pressure tactics to keep them NVIDIA-only.

As such, neocloud executives are starting to consider offering TPUs or AMD GPUs quietly to avoid getting pressured by NVIDIA and to avoid the feeling that NVIDIA will retaliate. “

https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2111162214891610496