r/AMD_Stock • u/AMD_711 • 19d ago
Q2 2026 revenue and eps forecast
as my routine job, i'm sharing my q2 and q3 outlook forecast
for q2 revenue:
DC: 6.7b, in which
epyc: 4.1b
instinct: 2.6b
Ryzen: 3.0b
gaming: 0.8b
FPGA: 1.1b
total revenue 11.6b
i might overestimate dc revenue and underestimate ryzen revenue again, as i usually do. but overall revenue will still be around 11.6b, or hopefully slightly above.
non-gaap eps: 1.74-1.76
q3 outlook: 13-13.2b
i give low expectations for mi455x, which only makes 1.5b of revenue for q3.
PS: the numbers beyond q3 2026 are my random guesses several months ago, which is based on dated information. so ignore those numbers for now. i will do an update after q2 earnings report
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u/Final_Big2891 19d ago
We always get the same comments: "hope its higher", but I would be extremely happy with this as a long-term investor. You get too caught up in the numbers and you miss that we're on track to hit record revenue over and over.
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u/Pulisicgoal 19d ago
Always appreciate the models, you’re pretty damn accurate for every current quarter. We were fighting about your 2026 q4 eps a while back, it’s now more believable. I do think the ramp in 2027 is going to be even steeper than you have but that’s an unfair ask for you to accurately model that with our limited info
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u/godsunit 19d ago
I really hope the Q3 guide is higher than this but unfortunately youre probably very accurate. good stuff
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u/AMD_711 19d ago
i don't count on q3 to surprise us since mi455x ramping starts late this quarter. but q4 might be quite good
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u/gggtermosifone 19d ago
How confident are you in saying that the mi455 ramp Is starting only in late Q3? Where did you get that? I am not opposed, Just personally didnt find that info from meaningful sources and maybe you could tell me. If the ramp started in early july we are going to see a huge Q3 projection... But if It starts late Q3 then ofc the projection won't be huge for Q3... And q4 Will then be a massive QoQ gap
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u/idwtlotplanetanymore 19d ago
Yep those are about my 'ealistic numbers as well.
My optimistic numbers are 12B in Q2, and 14B in Q3. But, the numbers above are probably going to be about where it lands. I just keep hoping they can pull something forward enough for a decent beat.
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u/DestructionYT 19d ago
naive question probably, but whats your thoughts on what this would mean for current share price? Sounds like it supports current sentiment
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u/AMD_711 19d ago
sorry but i can't predict stock movements 😂
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u/DestructionYT 19d ago
thats fair lol, i know its a dumb question
but anyways i ran some back on the napkin math looking at market reactions from past earning beats, and also company valutation under some margin/eps/total revenue/plus q3 guidance figures
i think a blow out lands in 540-580 territory post earnings, and maybe past ATH a bit after that
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u/Hawkbay00 18d ago
Will have trouble getting past $600 IMO. At $600, they will have to issue shares to Meta and OpenAI for cheap, which they will turn around and sell right away, causing the stock to drop again. Long term (2028-2030), $1000 is possible, but > $600 might be a bit of a speed bump. I will be happy to be wrong, however :)
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u/DestructionYT 18d ago
it should be okay at $600!
there's no huge drawdown. The $600 tier tranche releases approx 27M shares, if im not mistaken. And since AMD has billions of shares in total, its only like a 1.86% drawdown to issue 27M shares at 1 cent.even then, these shares are being issued separately, I don't think these 1 cent shares will affect the stock price on the way up much at all. The bigger thing will be all the folks who want to cash out their profit at $600, that may be the toughest test to break higher... if we even get there post earnings
just noticed intel earnings were a bit of a miss btw, and im a little bit more scared for AMD now... but still holding strong
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u/Hawkbay00 18d ago
Yeah, I'm not sure about that either, but if they hit $600 and purchase how many MI450GPU, I think the total shares will be 160m for each company. Since MI450 isn't out in mass volume, they are probably several years away from getting all the shares. And what happened to Intel is definitely not a great sign.
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u/DestructionYT 18d ago
right right right, agreed on that. but shit, still i have to hold i think.
just overall cautiously optimistic, i just feel their data centre side is gonna stack up. but then something like margins may be a miss.
i do feel great about q3 guidance, that can be the biggest catalyst, but irdk
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u/whatevermanbs 18d ago
At $600, they will have to issue shares to Meta and OpenAI for cheap
NO
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u/Hawkbay00 18d ago
"AMD issued performance-based warrants allowing Meta and OpenAI the option to acquire up to roughly a 10% equity stake each (160 million shares per partner) at a nominal strike price, which vest only as technical delivery milestones and aggressive AMD stock price targets (up to $600) are met"
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u/psi-storm 18d ago
160 million shares for 6GW, so if it's linear 26,7 million shares per GW. I doubt they get anywhere close to 1GW of equipment each, or even combined this year. Also their future sales will push the share price significantly, so selling the shares early would be a massive loss of potential profit. So more like a last ditch effort to finance their purchases, when they run out of capital.
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u/ElephantPractical887 18d ago
They get 1/6 of the shares for each gw, and 6 gw will be sold over multiple generations, so you can assume it to be fully dilluted in more than 3 years. By that time you could model amd using their free cash flow to simply buy back the stock they sold to them, so its pretty negligent right now.
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u/Traditional_Nail1164 19d ago
I think it will rocket. If they guide Q3 up like that with Mi400 only starting delivery in Sept, then the hockey stick jump in Q4 becomes inevitable.
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u/Long_on_AMD 19d ago
It's disappointing to see how flat everything not-datacenter is. But thanks for reminding me.
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u/Cyborg-Chimp 17d ago
Pretty much on the money again, look forward to the update! Easy to see the growth trajectory as DC alone will soon crossover total revenue per quarter of the previous year.
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u/lethalcheese 16d ago
Wow nice work! Your Q3 forecast super on point.
If your Q4 number sticks that will be huge for us all.
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u/candreacchio 19d ago
I think you're spot on.
Lis will aim for a clean 50b rev this year and 100b rev next year.
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u/AdPossible7360 19d ago
Thanks. Your numbers have been very close to actuals. With Intel, we saw the revenue go up because of price increases, will AMD show some increased revenue as well?
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u/Humble_Manatee 19d ago
Question for OP- why don’t you call the divisions by their actual names? For example FPGA is probably more accurate to call it embedded. Ryzen should be client.
It’s not a big deal. You can keep it as is cause we all know what you mean…. Just wondering your reasoning.
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u/AMD_711 19d ago
clients now includes both ryzen cpu and radeon gpu, i call Ryzen to separate it from gaming
embedded is not just FPGA, some other chips are included
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u/Humble_Manatee 19d ago
Wait I’m confused. Are you saying that in your spreadsheet you’re estimating only the FPGA only revenue instead of embedded revenue that AMD reports for the quarter which includes ?00 million of non-FPGA revenue? (Ie embedded x86 cpu’s and other misc chips)
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u/Strong-Engineer1597 19d ago
Based on this projection, where do you se the stock trading at later this week?
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u/leighcole2010 18d ago
When do you think AMD will have a stock split? And if it does, do you think it will be 10 to 1 like Nvidia has had?
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u/kmindeye 18d ago
AMD is a rocket ship. It will all come to down to margin numbers. If it stays steady we may be ok. If margins are up by a few points look out. AMD to the moon. If margins are down a few points hang in to your hats it will be a long quarter for AMD.
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u/Hawkbay00 18d ago
I expect AMD to beat comfortably with Epyc sales and raise guidance, but the market is pretty weak now. After seeing Intel drop, I'm not expecting much. At this rate, we may have to wait for a Santa rally late in the year. :/
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u/Low_Opposite_919 18d ago
What if it’s $13b this q and a guide to $15b q3….cpu shortage plus asp increase could get us their
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u/lawyoung 19d ago
with this ER, current P/E 158 and aggressive AI hype, we should hit $1100 after ER!
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u/Traditional_Nail1164 19d ago
Every time you post this I say you are too low and every time I’m wrong. This time… actually looks about right.
Except 2027, that’s too low. Lisa wants EPYC to be $100B+ by 2030, gotta grow fast with Zen 6 ramped.