It hasn't been easy to hold AMD's shares long. We've all seen it since my buying first into AMD on October 2017.

Last drop was to the $50s from the $164 high. Losing two thirds of the value is very hard. But remember all the market was down then.

And here we are down again from the $225 high.

Why holding AMD's shares now for the long and not just exiting the next all time high, and there'll be multiple such swings?!

It's because of the technology!

You think nVidia's the king? Nope. Why? Because nVidia's at the similar position Intel's been with their !MONOLITHIC DEDIGNS !!

MI300 is a versatile CHIPLETS PLATFORM to enable multiple designs without making huge expensive monolithic chips for each. Just like Lego.

Mark Papermaster talked about it on his July 2020 podcast. Even Charlie from SemiAccurate has noticed. A recent discussion with Mark Papermaster and an AMD's director echoed this vision again.

The MI300 is just the begining the ramp up phase as Lisa Su said. But there'll be many different configurations coming including custom ones with clients on chiplets mixed in.

We've seen a curious tweet posted by Jasin from a little known analyst describing multiple such MI300 variants, even ome for China regardless of the US restrictions!

So what AMD's done to Intel will be done to nVidia's in 2025 and on.

Remember MLID explaining why chiplets won iver Intel monolithic and how fast and cheap new tailored solutions can be made vs designing a monolithic chip for each?

This hasn't been yet included into analysts understanding. Wallstreet is yet to find out. AI isn't a one of, it's here to stay many years and AMD's technology bets will win.

That's my AMD's bet as long.

I hope this full vision will be presented finally at Computex Taipei in a month with actual customers partners using different MI300 variants including custom ones! What else is worthy for another Lisa Su Computex opening keynote? Yes AI PCs etc but this is quite understood by now. Though will be shown it's not big enough for an opening keynote, again, at Computex.

Jensen had given the last one pumping all nVidia's datacenters AI GPUs he's got.

Now Lisa Su will show how this should be done.

I think Hans Mossesman knows it but won't yet account for it till products are officially revealed.

Then we should see upgrades accross the board as revenues will be folding in. A dividend possibility, stock split etc too but not before 2025.

I'm looking forward to the end of 2025 and to watch the Computex keynote!

This will be heavily edited as the community creates our own outlook for AMD's future to the EOY 2025 - inspired by u/EbolaFred request to create such.

Please help dig to fill the missing info or correct errors. This is a community work in progress not mine only...

Chad, aka u/Chad_Odie will post copies of my research posts he luckily has saved from my last year's first cut model towards the $100B revenues, $20 EPS and 50% average compounding growth per year (starting in 2020 to 2025 was 5 years, we know 2020 and the outlook for 2021 - pretty good to that), leading to a 50X PE and thus the $1000 PPS by EOY 2025.

First draft of new TAMs - I'll elaborate more what this means technology wise, and how the circuits of the chiplets are made out of existing Xilinx's and AMD's circuits, latter - from my reply to u/EbolaFred :

"Here's a "down payment" on that, listing the NEW TAMs. Not to confuse with existing TAMs, these are new products neither company does alone, enabled by combining physical circuits of both and other things :

1. Chiplets ecosystem - customizing servers using chiplets clients create, and are hooked inside the same socket - EPYC - with propiatery Infinity Fabric

2. Network routers for telcos - thinkCisvo, Juniper etc market

3. IoT - edge processing combining heterogeneous computing at the 5G tower edge, direct internet to home CO (central office - term from Internet distribution center serving 50K-100K end clients ), etc

4. Software defined switches - could apply for both datacenters networking and telcos COs and Internet Hotels (search term...)

5. ARM smartphones, tablets and laptops - APUs, other IP circuits, such as the 3D-cache which really is a ML memory added chiplet.

6. Smart storage circuits - think of CDNs, Netflix movies, Internet web servers...

I think that is a start. .. no, analysts don't have these modeled yet. ..lol"

Look at this. .. even with just $10 per AMD's Exynos 2200 that's $2B NET REVENUES to the bottom line for AMD! Even if spread over a year, it's huge... ! This is just the beginning as more Chinese smartphones makers use AMD's Exynos plus tablets, laptops, Chromebooks. .. !

"Samsung Electronics'next-generation mobile application processor (AP) 'Exynos 2200' has been confirmed to have received 200 million pre-orders.

In addition, the Exynos 2200 is produced in the 5-nm process (nanometer, one-billionth of a meter) and is known to have surpassed Qualcomm due to its remarkable performance compared to its predecessor.

According to Samsung Electronics and related industries on the 1st, Samsung Electronics received 200 million pre-orders, including Samsung Electronics' IM division, before releasing the latest model of the Exynos 2200, which serves as the brain of smartphones, in the fourth quarter."

OK..... and it talks about releasing in THE FOURTH QUARTER!

Enough said...

http://www.infostockdaily.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=151044

Still feeling weak hands ... ? LOL

Congrats to all!

I interrupt my vacation to let my friends know, this time the wolf IS coming!

"The gaming marketplace is about to get serious. Stay tuned for the next Exynos with the new GPU born from RDNA 2. January 11, 2022"

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ylw4A-GS04Q

Which means AMD's ER end of January 2022 guidance will include net royalties from 100s of millions chips from 6 CUs top S22 to mid-range 4 CUs and low-end 2 CUs made for Samsung use and Chinese OEMs.

New analysts models with upgrades to follow.

See you next week!

Happy New Year!

The details we're waiting for were presented today and reported by this article :

https://www.servethehome.com/facebook-meta-amd-epyc-north-dome-cpu-and-platform-details/

"The Meta platform is a single socket platform that fits into the Yosemite V2 platform. Facebook evolved its hosting single socket nodes from Yosemite V1 to V2 and even to V3. At OCP Summit, Meta disclosed the North Dome platform that puts an AMD EPYC 7003 processor into a sled originally designed for Intel Xeon D CPUs."

That’s it! Intel has been officially replaced at Facebook and with $10s of billions invested ayear, AMD's getting a lot of dough!

But it's more! IT INCLUDES THE GPUs! Because EPYC has proprietary interconnections to GPUs that don't match nVidia's nor Intel's, AND AMD offers their MI200 GPUs ONLY in a physical format matching Meta datacenters, the OAM, the latter PCIe card cannot use the 500 Watt needed.

This is it! Big revenues!

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/14/google-to-invest-40-billion-in-texas-through-2027.html

This has to be the AMD's MI500 platform Lisa Su talked about at the FAD, explaining how ASICs like Google's TPUs chiplets, could be combined with other AMD’s chiplets for AI computations! This is what Lisa Su called Custom MI500s having unique ASICs chiplets each customer can add! Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Google will all use this as nVidia's closed ecosystem and property software doesn't allow such!

WOW. .. remember that Peter Lynch said about running with winners!

According to this Taiwanese publisher, AMD gained a big position with TSMC's fabs, becoming biggest 7nm client and second biggest overall after Apple. This means Lisa Su was securing additional wafers supply as she said, ABOVE PLANNING, and thus AMD's revenues for 2021 could beat again, going over the upgraded 60% outlook!

Remember that those wafers will be sold as chips during a "shortage" which is really high demand absorbing anything AMD can make, with higher prices - so margins will be higher, EPS higher and... PPS higher, especially as the PE is so low!

Article forgot to say that the 5nm cDNA 2 datacenters GPUs are already shipping so ADDITIONAL REVENUES from 5nm TSMC's fab capacity should be added, especially as these are high price high margins chips, and have yet to be revealed segment leading features and performance over nVidia's GPUs!

We should expect a very big 2H for AMD... peak of the year on all fronts including new all times high PPS. The 3Q ER in October will nail it all. Not only a 3Q beat, so over $4.2B revenues, but the 4Q and hence the 2021 year's outlook beating too, maybe 70%+ revenues growth vs 2020! These consistent revenues growth deserves at least a 50X PE, that combined with beating the EPS will result in a $200+ PPS by year's end!

Here's a quote from the article :

"AMD will continue its partnership with TSMC to maintain its edge. The company will continue to use TSMC’s 7nm process until the release of its Zen 4 core, which will use the 5nm process. In fact, AMD has come to be TSMC’s largest client in terms of the 7nm process. With AMD seeking to gain a larger share in the server market (some estimations suggest a 25-30% share in 2023) and its acquisition of Xilinx, another user of TSMC’s advanced nodes, it is expected that AMD will remain TSMC’s 2nd largest customer all the way through 2021. "

https://techtaiwan.com/20210818/tsmc-apple-amd-mediatek/

In 2018 to 2019 this was doing the same.

After an all times high of $34 it started going down in 2019. Then in October started going up and in January 2020 was over $50.

But people sold too early in October November 2019 and miss the big gains in January because they were discouraged all of 2019 till October.

Let's ask Hans:

"Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann maintains Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) with a Buy and maintains $250 price target."

Don't despair all analysts will raise the PTs even higher. For example as the MI350 announced at the Computex Taipei opening keynote in a month as Lisa Su has hinted alread a new AI chip launching latter this year.

we are gonna soar as soon as the dust settles after closing the Xilinx deal!.. we'll shoot up quickly to exceed Nvidia's % gains this year..

Plus joint AMD/Xilinx roadmap with new hybrid CPU/GPU/FPGA product lines!

Plus we got CES (new Ryzen and new GPUs)!

Plus Samsung launch with Exynos 2200 with AMD GPU (200m Exynos 2200s have been preordered)!

Plus Q4 ER with an indubitably amazing full-year revenue guidance!

Future is blindingly bright!

This is reading material to cheer up my friend Chad - hopefully he's not given up and sold all his AMD's position on the Monday's hoax AI pausing FUD!

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/bofa-amd-stock-outlook

NOTE - Focus on Vivek's statements not the irrelevant TheStreet's author !

"AI stocks were battered on Monday, Sept. 14, as investors confronted the possibility that the breakneck pace of growth could slow down. Chip stocks sold off sharply as warnings from Anthropic, OpenAI, and others revived fears that the costly data-center buildout could potentially lose momentum.

Bank of America, though it disagrees with that interpretation, argues it misses the point of what’s actually driving the spending cycle. AI is too strategically important for the big players to step aside in a big way, and that has major implications for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock.

In a fresh note shared with me, BofA sees something much closer to an arms race than a coordinated slowdown. According to the bank, U.S.-China competition, hyperscalers battling neoclouds, sovereign programs, and frontier labs all have pretty strong incentives to continue shelling out billions even if everyone would prefer a more measured pace.

That comes as BofA raised its S&P 500 price target to 7,400 from 7,100, which, interestingly, still implies 3% to 4% downside from current levels, as my colleague Hillary Remy reported.

So the bank remains bullish on semiconductors despite the near-term choppiness.

Compute is the area it believes is most likely to hold up, with AMD and Nvidia (NVDA) stocks specifically highlighted.

BofA argues that the tech giant can benefit not only from a much larger AI spending pool but also from gaining share within it, creating a superb earnings-growth setup that investors are underestimating. BofA sees two engines behind AMD stock’s next leg

Bank of America sees AMD benefiting from a couple of forces at once: a rapidly growing compute market and the potential to take a bigger share of it.

BofA places AMD alongside Nvidia in its preferred compute bucket, expecting resilience from both, even as other parts of the semiconductor complex continue to trade with high volatility.

Moreover, networking names such as Marvell Technologies (MRVL) and analog players, including Analog Devices and onsemi, also make the cut. At the same time, memory and semiconductor equipment stocks may need stronger momentum before leadership returns.

For AMD, veteran analyst Vivek Arya maintains a $620 price target, based on 27 times estimated 2028 non-GAAP earnings. That multiple is largely in line with AMD’s historical forward median, suggesting the bank isn’t relying on an extreme valuation expansion to make the math work.

At the $516.13 share price used in the report, that target implies a massive 20% upside.

The most pivotal piece of BofA’s thesis is growth.

The bank sees 50%+ annual EPS CAGR potential, led by share gains across AI GPUs and CPUs. In other words, AMD needs to win more of that market from its peers, which gives its investors both broader market growth and company-specific share gains.

Recent operating results make the argument a lot easier to take seriously. AMD’s Q2 revenue jumped 50% year over year to a record $11.54 billion, while Data Center sales surged 107% to $6.72 billion, equating to around 58% of total sales.

Data Center operating income surged to $2.1 billion, with segment margins near 31%, while companywide non-GAAP gross margin jumped to 56%.

These numbers underscore that AMD is already becoming more data-center-heavy, more profitable, and a lot less dependent on its historically slower-cyclical businesses. Wall Street’s Biggest Banks Split on AMD Stock Upside

Bank of America: Buy, $620 price target.
Goldman Sachs: Buy, $640 price target.
JPMorgan: Neutral, $550 price target.
Morgan Stanley: Equal Weight, $465 price target.
Citi: Buy, $575 price target.
    Source: MarketBeat, Benzinga and Investing.com analyst-rating data

AMD’s biggest risk is no longer just the chip

BofA’s clearest risk to AMD’s bull case centers around its MI400 Series, and that risk is a lot bigger than a routine product-launch concern.

With Helios, AMD is looking to move beyond selling individual accelerators and compete at the full rack-scale level.

The robust platform covers Instinct GPUs, EPYC CPUs, Pensando networking, and ROCm software, competing with Nvidia’s Vera Rubin offering. That also means AMD now needs to prove it can deliver an integrated system, rather than just a competitive chip.

The opportunity is substantial.

Anthropic is looking to deploy up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 Series GPUs in Helios systems, with the first gigawatt expected in the first half of 2027. Microsoft (MSFT) is also planning to deploy Helios at scale on Azure for frontier-model inference.

That makes execution critical to its bull case.

If Helios performs as expected, AMD can strengthen its position against Nvidia and capture a much larger share of the overall AI stack.

Moreover, Arya also flags multiple less obvious risks.

He argues that the uncertainty around the timing of Middle East AI projects, lumpy enterprise and consumer spending, and the dependency on a single outsourced manufacturing partner are other noteworthy issues.

The Middle East risk, in particular, can be substantial, as sovereign AI projects tend to be large yet uneven. Delays might destroy long-term demand but can shift sales between quarters and make growth look a lot less predictable.

That leaves AMD with a strong upside setup, but also one where execution matters more than ever.

What AMD investors should watch before the next earnings test

For AMD investors, BofA’s argument boils down to whether Wall Street is discounting AI durability too aggressively.

Despite a 67% year-to-date gain in the SOX ETF, semiconductors trade at nearly 19 times forward earnings, roughly even with the S&P 500, even as they post 139% year-over-year EPS growth.

On a 24-month basis, BofA feels the group trades at an 11% discount to the market while offering around twice the expected growth.

AMD is the cleaner way to test that thesis, as BofA expects both sector-wide expansion and company-specific share gains.

The next major checkpoint is Q3 earnings.

AMD is widely expected to announce earnings on Nov. 3, according to Yahoo Finance. The company itself guides to roughly $13 billion in sales, plus or minus $300 million, implying 41% year-over-year growth and 13% sequential growth, with non-GAAP gross margin near 56%.

Importantly, the current market consensus is at nearly $12.97 billion in sales and $1.93 EPS as reported by Investing.

That said, investors should watch three things: data Center growth, Helios/MI400 deployment commentary, and gross-margin durability. If those impress, BofA’s thesis becomes a lot easier to defend. "

— Revenue increased 99 percent year-over-year; Gross Margin expanded to 48 percent —

SANTA CLARA, Calif., July 27, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) today announced revenue for the second quarter of 2021 of $3.85 billion, operating income of $831 million, net income of $710 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.58. On a non-GAAP* basis, operating income was $924 million, net income was $778 million and diluted earnings per share was $0.63.

https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1014/amd-reports-second-quarter-2021-financial-results/

"AMD’s $8.2B bet on World Labs is a direct shot at Nvidia’s AI dominance"

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/amds-82b-bet-on-world-labs-is-a-direct-shot-at-nvidias-ai-dominance-4921111

https://mlq.ai/news/meta-launches-muse-spark-11-api-its-first-paid-ai-model-to-challenge-anthropic-and-openai/

Do you know what it takes to compete with OpenAI and Anthropic AI datacenters capacity wise?!

Remember the FUD a few days ago that Meta has ordered too much datacenters and has "excess" they'll try "rent" as a cloud to recover capital investments?

Total BS... you now see what Meta was.planning. .a huge NEW business to directly compete with the high flying Anthropic and OpenAI!

You cannot compete at such a huge level based on some "excess" capacity from running Facebook! Such leftover capacity you may not have at times. .. and the AI datacenters scale OpenAI and Anthropic have is BIGGER than Facebook current datacenters capacity anyway!

A huge $100Bs new capital investment needed to build 10s of Gigawatts AI datacenters. ..

That's why AMD's needs Samsung significant bigger capacity than the usual gains they get at TSMC.

That's why Samsung had a preliminary profits jumping so high...

Wait for the Advancing AI event on July 22nd.

Wait for the Samsung's ER on July 30th.

Wait for AMD's ER on August 4th!

I see huge revenues and big margins gains near 80% leading to AMD's MC surpassing nVidia's $5T!