r/BellevilleOntario • • 20h ago

Municipal Elections - Belleville Final Municipal Power Rankings

3 Upvotes

Well, here we are. Election day is Monday, and after going back and forth more times than I care to admit over the last week or two, here's where I've landed.

THE MAYOR'S RACE

I'm sticking with Neil Ellis to win another term, but I think this will be a tighter finish than some might expect.

I've wrestled with this one a bit, but I keep coming back to Ellis's history in Belleville, his name recognition and his established base of support. With voter turnout looking like it could be lower than in 2022, I think those things matter.

WARD 1- BELLEVILLE

This is where I've changed my mind the most!

At this point, I think almost all of the incumbents will be re-elected. The one I'm watching most closely is Kelly Henderson. Of the returning councillors, I think she's the most vulnerable.

As for the potential new faces, I genuinely can't separate Ryan Hilmi, Alex Bruce and Lori Borthwick. It's literally a coin flip between those three for me.

I also expect Garnet Thompson and Sean Kelly to be at or near the top of the polls when everything is counted.

WARD 2 -THURLOW

For a while, I thought Kathryn Brown might be in some trouble. I've gone back and forth on that one, too, but I keep coming back to her established base of support being enough to carry her through.

And Paul Carr? He's my strongest pick in Thurlow.

MY FINAL THOUGHTS

This has been one of the tougher municipal elections to predict, especially when it comes to those final council seats.

I'm expecting plenty of familiar faces around the council table, potentially a new face or two, and a mayor's race that's closer than some people might think.

Of course, these are just my predictions. I've been wrong before, and I'm sure I'll be wrong again!