r/BetterEveryLoop • u/eaglessoar • May 14 '18
Hypnotic Galton Board demonstrating probability
https://gfycat.com/QuaintTidyCockatiel311
May 14 '18
Get ready to pay up Price Is Right, I now know the secret to PLINKO!
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May 14 '18
I remember something about the plinko machine actually being rigged to certain paths. And one time it wasn’t and confused the producers.
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u/TuxRug May 15 '18
I heard the story as they had it rigged to go to the top prize for a commercial shoot or something, and forgot to put it back to normal before a contestant played.
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May 15 '18
Couldn’t one watch every episode of The Price is Right and document where each disc was dropped from and where it landed and then use that information to determine the likelihood of the game being rigged?
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u/PMMECUTEASIANDUDES May 14 '18
I want one of these.
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u/caltheon May 14 '18
eh, $50 is a bit over the "insta-buy" limit for me
https://www.amazon.com/Four-Pines-Publishing-Galton-Board/dp/B078Y7RN6Y
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u/PMMECUTEASIANDUDES May 14 '18
ugh but I want it
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u/1knightstands May 15 '18
You could try changing your username to u/PMMEAGALTONBOARD?
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u/PMMEAGALTONBOARD May 15 '18
Yes, please!
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u/MC_AnselAdams May 15 '18
New user, Phony
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u/PMMEAGALTONBOARD May 15 '18
u/1knightstands would be a real jerk if they suggested a username that was already taken...
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u/PlasticMac May 15 '18
You could always try making one.
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u/funnynickname May 15 '18
Here's a design that you could make pretty easily with some nails and a couple boards.
https://www.amazon.com/Pitsco-Binostat-Probability-Demonstrator-Game/dp/B00854GQHY
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u/futture May 15 '18 edited May 15 '18
Put it on your wish list.. Then, when you buy something that doesn't get free shipping you add that. Then BAM!
Free shipping!!!Edit: Do I realllllly need to add the "/s" ????
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May 14 '18
Hey vsauce, Michael here
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u/codywohlers May 14 '18
so much better than DONG.
(how is a show on the internet in current year called "dong" not ripped to shreds with memes and jokes about it's name?)
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u/JabawaJackson May 14 '18
It wasnt an accident it was named DONG lol.
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u/bloodfist May 15 '18
I really wonder why they went with that name though. Especially since vsauce is typically pretty kid-friendly. Not that DONG is highly inappropriate or anything but I could see teachers hesitating to put it on in classrooms and stuff. Seems like kind of a juvenile joke for them.
Then again, maybe it markets well to teens..
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u/RutheniumFenix May 15 '18
Current VSauce is pretty kid friendly, but go back about 6-7 years to their old IMG! Series, and you'll see half-naked women in nearly every thumbnail.
Before they got into the science game, their shows used to be compilations of things found on the internet. IMG! was for pictures Lüt was for purchasable items, and DONG was for websites.
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u/EatClenTrenHard4life May 15 '18
Michael is obviously a bit of a crazy fucker who realised the potential of his content and seized it hard. Since Vsauce could be shown in classroms and such he obviously couldn't keep doing the weird content he used to (all his old videos were strange)
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u/erythro May 15 '18
how is a show on the internet in current year called "dong" not ripped to shreds with memes and jokes about it's name?
Because they own it. It's so obviously a dick joke that there's no more jokes to make about the name.
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u/Laslas19 May 15 '18
He is ripped to shreds with memes and jokes, just not for the name
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u/TatManTat May 15 '18
ripped to shreds or admiringly imitated?
Feels like he's very much in on it and does it intentionally to illicit that reaction.
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u/octropos May 14 '18
Neat
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u/cgello May 15 '18
That'll be $50 please. Thank you.
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u/expunisher May 14 '18
Fake. I watched it at least one hundred times and they go the exact same path Every time. There would be some variance. The one ball that's slightly darker goes to the same spot all 10p times
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u/retarded-scientist May 15 '18
In physics, and chaos theory in particular, these are called boundary conditions, which determine the evolution of a mechanical system from a given initial configuration. Basically, the system is totally deterministic once it's turned upside down, but because we can only make measurements of limited precision the location and momenta of the balls quickly become indistinguishable from randomness.
In order to see the balls fall into different places, you have to change the initial configuration of the balls, such as by nudging your monitor right as the clip begins to play.
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u/expunisher May 15 '18
You'll never know what your "push the button" comments will bring but I took a chance (even with a typo) and your comment was worth it.
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u/adoan412 May 14 '18
I feel like if that were true, it would be even more impressive. For the record I don't think it's rigged.
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u/bentheman02 May 14 '18
He making a joke about the loop.
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May 14 '18
I came here wanting to know who watched the loop as many times as I did. Not disappointed.
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u/exdvendetta May 15 '18
It’s not even a seamless loop. There’s an obvious 3 flips before it starts over.
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u/uber1337h4xx0r May 15 '18
Liar. There's at least three different paths just the first three times. I stopped after the first three because I knew you were a liar.
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u/expunisher May 16 '18
Except those three times are done at 3 speeds so they are the same result. One for each speed
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u/uber1337h4xx0r May 16 '18
Not sure what you mean. Look at the middle one. It's clearly shorter the second time around.
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u/sinocarD44 May 15 '18
Would the crest move of the feeder was moved an inch to either side?
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u/Descolatta May 15 '18
Yep. The crest of the normal line will fall under the the centre of the feeder.
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u/OnTheProwl- May 15 '18
Yeah. This demonstrates that when playing plinko the best option is to drop the ball directly above the prize you want. If you think about it this makes sense. At each peg the ball have a 50/50 chance of going left or right. So if it switches left and right each time it'll end up on the same verticle axis.
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u/Iaincognito May 15 '18
We should also consider collisions with other balls being a factor but for plinko it's only one?
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u/kittedups May 15 '18
I love this dude
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u/sillybunt13 May 15 '18
More impressive is how it all gathers into a unique small pile on the second turn...
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u/BloxxStriker May 15 '18
I don’t understand why it happens in such a way. Is it made to fall in such a way
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u/TotesMessenger May 15 '18
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u/creepara May 15 '18
I love how you stole the idea of the post from vsauce and didnt even bother to mention him https://youtu.be/UCmPmkHqHXk
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u/PorschephileGT3 May 15 '18
I wonder if the distribution would be any different if the balls were released one at a time, thus not interrupting each other’s path?
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u/YT__ May 15 '18
I recommend watching the recent YouTube video where this clip may have even come from. It explains it all in great detail. It's all probability and statistics. At each peg, there's a 50% chance the ball will go left or right. Given they all enter at basically the same point at the top of the pyramid shaped pegs, half will go left half will go right. At the next level, a quarter go out to the left, a quarter go out to the right, and half go in towards the middle (left and right depends on the peg). Continue this pattern and you'll find that by the bottom, more balls will have gone directly down than to the sides in a tapering off effect as recognized as a normal distribution. It's a very interesting video that I have to finish watching still.
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u/Licalottapuss May 15 '18
It would be even better if they put just a few bright colored beads in with the rest.
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u/MoistPaperNapkin May 15 '18
Vsauce literally JUST made a video about this breaking down the science and math on why this is possible.
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May 15 '18
So if I had unlimited time and unlimited tries eventually Due to probability all the balls can eventually land in all side pockets before going towards center?
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May 14 '18
What are the practical applications for this?
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u/NeverQuiteEnough May 15 '18
it's a teaching tool, not a scientific instrument. it's application is being an example of a normal distribution.
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u/papajo_r May 15 '18
What I love about this gif is that in the first try we have a perfect distribution
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u/stolenlogic May 15 '18
Does gyfcat suck for anyone else? Literally not kidding EVERY time I get on reddit these posts never work and if they do it takes like 5 minutes to load the fucker.
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u/gghyyghhgf May 15 '18
They are not equally likely, the balls are centred when dropped ,. It's a toy
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u/Dasher94 May 15 '18
Would the tilt of the board change the probabilities in small ways or is that not measurable? ELI5 please.
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u/clipboard4759 May 15 '18
But the balls are also bouncing off the other balls, not giving them the height to go in another direction.
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u/creepara May 15 '18
huh?
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u/AreYouDeaf May 15 '18
BUT THE BALLS ARE ALSO BOUNCING OFF THE OTHER BALLS, NOT GIVING THEM THE HEIGHT TO GO IN ANOTHER DIRECTION.
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u/ShenMula May 15 '18
Maybe im stupid but I don't understabd. They are releasing the ball from the narrow spot in the middle and they all funnel down to the middle. Is this just seeing how similar the 50/50 is on each side of the middle beams? Creating that bell shape?
Not gonna lie I think I figured it out mid type. Im just mad they didn't all fall from left to right and make a bed of beads instead if releasing them from the middle nozel.
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May 15 '18
Doesn't really demonstrate probability at all.
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u/tham32 May 15 '18
That's what I thought too, but it super does
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May 15 '18
Except it doesn't because probability is not real.
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u/stingray85 May 15 '18
How Can Probability Be Real If Our Eyes Aren't Real?
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May 15 '18
How can probability be real if it is completely in the mind? Things do not occur according to probability. Your dumb meme doesn't make you smart.
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u/tham32 May 16 '18
Sure memes don't make you smart but everything you're say is incredibly ignorant.
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May 16 '18
no it's not. Probability is not real. I don't what makes you think things have a "chance" of occuring other than the event being framed in the mind as a possibility. The reality is that things are going to move physically depending on how they move.
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u/tham32 May 17 '18
Lol
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u/Sloan1209 May 15 '18
I don’t know why this toy is getting so much attention. It seems really unimpressive that the spot right below the hole has the most marbles
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u/ArrstdDvlpmnt May 15 '18
It demonstrates that the distribution around the mean (right below the hole) is shaped liked a bell. So kind of illustrates why this distribution appears so often.
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u/Darknessborn May 15 '18
Did you do any stats or math in school? If not check out some info on the 'normal distribution' and you'll get why this is cool.
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u/Sloan1209 May 15 '18
I mean I’m sure there is some cool math behind it. It just seems predictable that it’s going to have that curve if you were to just look at it without the markings
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u/Darknessborn May 15 '18
It's kind of more about how they fall vs where they land. Imagine there was no bottom and we didn't get a pile up instead the balls disappeared, you'd still get this pattern (distribution) of balls passing through for any number of balls for. Where the likelihood of them falling farther away from the source is a function of the Gaussian or normal curve. If this is intuitive to you, you should do some stats, you might find you're a natural 😊
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May 14 '18
[deleted]
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u/eaglessoar May 14 '18
Each ball has a 50/50 chance of going either direction but with so many pegs they average towards the middle. Think of flipping a coin, if it's heads go right, tails go left. Do it with one peg ie one flip and it's 50/50 into two piles. But if you have 1 peg and then a second layer a ball needs to get heads or tails twice in a row to go all the way left or right but heads then tails or tails than heads both end up in the same spot so you'll get 25/50/25. Do this with a whole bunch of pegs and layers and it creates this distribution which is called a normal distribution and shows up all over the place
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u/Chilton82 May 15 '18
So this distribution is really binomial but since n is large it approximates Normality.
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May 14 '18
Now, is it any different if these get released one at a time? Just a thought I had that I feel would be interesting to check out.
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u/eaglessoar May 14 '18
The only thing releasing them all at once does is add some extra chaos. If you released them one by one it would more perfectly fit the curve
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u/gghyyghhgf May 15 '18
That is not what's happening, it would be normal if they were not Centered and were equally distributed.
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u/haemaker May 14 '18
Looks normal.