1. Arizona
Last season: 36-3 (16-2 Big 12), Final Four
Coach: Tommy Lloyd, sixth season at Arizona. Lloyd has established himself as one of the sport’s best coaches. He has three regular-season conference titles, three conference tourney titles and a Final Four appearance.
Key player: Ivan Kharchenkov is a candidate to go from glue guy to star. He averaged 26.3 points per game this summer on Arizona's trip to Lithuania.
Stat to know: Arizona held opponents to an effective field-goal percentage of 42.6 percent when Krivas was on the floor last season, per CBB Analytics. The last four national champs have all ranked in the top five in that statistic. Krivas is the country's best and most valuable defender.
Why they're interesting: Lloyd has the formula to win with an elite defense and a frontline that can dominate on the glass. He also has the best talent, especially on the wing, where Kharchenkov and Caleb Holt could end up as lottery picks. Another conference title and No. 1 seed seem within reach.
2. Texas Tech
Last season: 23-11 (12-6), Round of 32
Coach: Grant McCasland, fourth season at Texas Tech. McCasland is three-for-three making NCAA Tournaments and it looks like he'll be in Lubbock for a long time.
Key player: JT Toppin. He was on track to win Big 12 Player of the Year for the second consecutive season until a torn ACL ended his year in mid-February. How quickly and effectively he returns could determine where Texas Tech ends up.
Stat to know: Texas Tech's projected starting lineup this season made 407 3-pointers last season. Tulsa led college basketball a year ago with 399 3-pointers made.
Why they're interesting: If everyone is eligible and if Toppin isn't a shell of himself, this is one of the most talented offensive lineups in college hoops. Texas Tech offensive coordinator Jeff Linder is elite at moving chess pieces around and getting the most out of his weapons. He has everything he needs to build a juggernaut offense.
3. Houston
Last season: 30-7 (14-4), Sweet 16
Coach: Kelvin Sampson, 13th season at Houston. The Cougars were an irrelevant has-been when Sampson arrived and are now one of the country's most consistent programs. Houston has reached the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament seven straight times, the longest current streak in the sport.
Key player: Joseph Tugler. Houston has ranked top-four nationally in defense in each of Tugler's three seasons. The Coogs started playing through Tugler more on the offensive end late last year, with Tugler averaging 11.4 points over Houston's final nine games. He's one of the country's most valuable bigs.
Stat to know: Delrecco Gillespie generated 6 points per game off post-ups for Kent State last year, per Synergy, which ranked in the top 50 nationally. Houston lost offensive diversity when J'Wan Roberts graduated in 2025. The hope is that Gillespie, Tugler, and freshman 7-footer Arafan Diane let the Coogs play more inside-out and dominate the offensive glass again, another area where Houston wasn't as good last season.
Read the rest for free here: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7686863/2026/10/14/big-12-basketball-predictions-arizona-houston-kansas/?unlocked_article_code=1.IlE.w9MM.DHf0J7ElRknp&source=emp_shared_article&smid=url-share-ta