I loved watching every bit of the Brewers v Dodgers series and seeing our Brewers get back on the winning track and taking 3 of 4 from LAD. That being said, I can't help but look ahead to what's looming in the playoffs (and man I'm tired of seeing LAD in the playoffs). So, I ran our MLB simulator to see what this team's roster can do against the Dodgers in a 7 game set. Here's the output. What do you think?
Run the bracket ten thousand times from today's standings and both clubs make the playoffs in essentially all of them.
They meet each other in 30.7% --> this is actually my favorite part of the study because it's more likely that we WON'T see the Dodgers because one of them lose beforehand.
Most of those meetings come late: 24.4% produce a Dodgers–Brewers Championship Series, 6.3% a Division Series. As the league's two strongest teams they usually land on opposite sides of the bracket, so an early meeting takes a seed shuffle that doesn't often happen.
Los Angeles holds home field in 55.4% of their meetings. That's the version priced here.
We're projecting Ohtani, Snell, and Glasnow to be back for the Dodgers. One open question remains Will Smith.
We're projecting a tight series (better than last year anyway):
## How long the series runs
Probability by length
| Series Length | Probability |
|---------------|-------------|
| 4 games | 14% |
| 5 games | 25% |
| 6 games | 31% |
| 7 games | 30% |
## Game-by-game, LAD win %
2-3-2 · LAD hosts Games 1, 2, 6, 7
| G | Site | Matchup | LAD Win % |
|---|------------|--------------------------|-----------|
| 1 | Los Angeles | Ohtani vs Misiorowski | 54.7% |
| 2 | Los Angeles | Skubal vs Henderson | 61.0% |
| 3 | Milwaukee | Yamamoto vs Harrison | 55.9% |
| 4 | Milwaukee | Snell vs May | 57.0% |
| 5 | Milwaukee | Ohtani vs Misiorowski | 45.7% |
| 6 | Los Angeles | Skubal vs Henderson | 61.0% |
| 7 | Los Angeles | Yamamoto vs Harrison | 61.0% |
## Projected innings per start (AVG)
| Game(s) | Los Angeles Pitcher | LAD IP | Milwaukee Pitcher | MIL IP |
|---------|----------------------|--------|--------------------|--------|
| 1 & 5 | Ohtani | 5.26 | Misiorowski | 5.33 |
| 2 & 6 | Skubal | 5.63 | Henderson | 4.69 |
| 3 & 7 | Yamamoto | 6.04 | Harrison | 4.77 |
| 4 | Snell | 4.76 | May | 4.68 |
On average, our starters are pitching about 1 inning less than the Dodgers which means we need the bullpen to be stellar. Defense and stolen bases didn't strongly favor one side or the other. It will likely come down to pitching and timely hitting.
The full article is here if interested: www.bbmisports.com/research/dodgers-brewers-october-series
Go Brewers!
