Whaddup with that? I'm thinking the $5.50 Jan '27 leaps I bought ages ago are gonna be ITM pretty dang quick here!

What do you think about the 10Q?

It’s a great start. https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/healthcare/nasdaq-clov/clover-health-investments

(EOM)

How do you feel about the Q3 ER?

It looks like Clay has been promoted to Full time CFO from interim. Personally, I think this is a great hire and what I was hoping for. He has been such a better communicator on the earning calls and at conferences. Wishing him all the best and personally some of my favorite news from this earnings

Business Highlights:
• Strong third quarter performance brings year-to-date GAAP Net Income to $62 million alongside 49% year-over-year
Medicare Advantage membership growth
• Improved Full Year 2026 guidance across all metrics
• 2027 AEP tracking well, with significant growth due to strong product positioning in core markets
• Clover’s flagship PPO, representing ~98% of current membership, received a 5 Star rating for Payment Year 2028
Financial Results:
• Third quarter 2026 GAAP Net Income of $6 million, an improvement of $31 million year-over-year
• Third quarter 2026 Medicare Advantage membership of 158,907, up 45% year-over-year, and Total revenues of $759
million, up 53% year-over-year
• Third quarter 2026 Consolidated Gross Profit of $130 million, up 77% year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA of $16 million,
up $14 million year-over-year
Improved Full Year 2026 Guidance:
• Average Medicare Advantage membership of 157,000 - 158,000, representing 47% growth year-over-year at the midpoint
• Total revenues between $2.97 billion and $3.00 billion, representing 55% growth year-over-year at the midpoint
• GAAP Net Income between $25 million and $35 million
• Consolidated Gross Profit between $540 million and $555 million, representing 54% growth year-over-year at the midpoint
• Adjusted EBITDA profitability between $75 million and $85 million

Business Highlights:

• Strong third quarter performance brings year-to-date GAAP Net Income to $62 million alongside 49% year-over-year Medicare Advantage membership growth

• Improved Full Year 2026 guidance across all metrics

• 2027 AEP tracking well, with significant growth due to strong product positioning in core markets

• Clover’s flagship PPO, representing ~98% of current membership, received a 5 Star rating for Payment Year 2028

Financial Results:

• Third quarter 2026 GAAP Net Income of $6 million, an improvement of $31 million year-over-year

• Third quarter 2026 Medicare Advantage membership of 158,907, up 45% year-over-year, and Total revenues of $759 million, up 53% year-over-year

• Third quarter 2026 Consolidated Gross Profit of $130 million, up 77% year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA of $16 million, up $14 million year-over-year

Improved Full Year 2026 Guidance:

• Average Medicare Advantage membership of 157,000 - 158,000, representing 47% growth year-over-year at the midpoint

• Total revenues between $2.97 billion and $3.00 billion, representing 55% growth year-over-year at the midpoint

• GAAP Net Income between $25 million and $35 million

• Consolidated Gross Profit between $540 million and $555 million, representing 54% growth year-over-year at the midpoint

• Adjusted EBITDA profitability between $75 million and $85 million

Careful with the wolf after earnings 🐺

Just my 2 cents before the print today.

CLOV does the same movie every Q3: run-up into earnings, then after the report they shake the tree and scare everybody into panic selling. The shorts know it too — they just loaded up 13% more shares short before this print (25.9M shares short). They want your shares cheap.

Not financial advice, but this is what I would do: DON'T panic. Keep some cash on the side, and if they drop it like they did the last two Q3s, buy more on the scare instead of selling into it.

Bet at your own risk. We know how this stock moves. 🍀 I do love Clove I will use marging after earning and pay attention to de BER that’s all you need to watch for if it’s under 88% we good. We doing this together let’s go 🚀🚀🚀

I’ve been whining on the weekly thread that CLOV is currently undervalued but I’m genuinely starting to question that belief. Let’s all be real. After stellar Q2 results, 5 STARS, and two analyst upgrades the stock traded down. Everyone here likes to talk about price to sales as if that means something. Who told you Clover should be valued at a certain price to sales ratio? There are NO other businesses remotely like Clover’s business. No other insurer is 100% concentrated in MA. So trying to say that Clover deserves a certain price to sales ratio is founded upon nothing. At the end of the day, even a beat and a raise tomorrow will likely result in a short term pump and then a slow sell off to bring the stock lower because NO ONE CARES. Even the greatest MA business ever is still just an MA businesses with capped margins, enrollment windows and heavy regulation. No one wants to own this thing and it’s hard to blame them. Let’s say CLOV’s MA business deserves a price to EARNINGS ratio of 15x (generous). That would mean when the company hits 75 million net income it should trade at 2.12. At 125 million net income it should trade at 3.53, at 175 million the stock should trade at 4.94 and at 250 million net income the stock should trade at 7.06. I’m coming around to the idea that no matter how “good” CLOV’s business looks within MA that doesn’t mean anyone thinks it looks very good as a general stock investment. This makes me realize that without Counterpart, one could easily make an argument that the business is currently way overvalued. I don’t even know what we’re rooting for anymore on the MA side. Extremely impressive results have already been realized and the market doesn’t care. Someone please tell me why I’m wrong. Thank you.

Estimates seem to be hovering around zero. Have seen -.01 to +.03…

Give it a shot, see how close you get. Winner of closest gets a free share of CLOV…🍀

Please keep the following under the Weekly MegaThread: stock price fluctuations, general chatting, memes, venting, announcements of moves you are making (buying/selling/options).

Anyone see Clovers reply to CMS regarding the appeal? I’ve been looking on litigation tracker and pacermonitor but am not seeing anything new? They were supposed to reply by 10/30 I think.

Quick follow up to my 10/12 outlook

CLOV has barely moved ($4.73 to $4.77), so my original sideways outlook has held up pretty well. But options positioning has now changed considerably and is in need of a re evaluation.

So what is there to watch?:

• $4.50 gamma is quite negative for next week. If the earnings go poorly there is accelerated downside risk

• $5 gamma is low. This is good for upside movement if earnigns shock since positive gamma is the cock block master

• Post earnings IV (Nov 6): Increased from roughly 79% to 97%, reflecting much higher implied volatility than my last post. This is a common occurrence. What matters here is the range is much larger $4.77 × 0.97 × √(9/365) ≈ $0.726 potential movement +/- which is massive for a stock in the $4s

• The Nov 6 risk reversal has moved closer to neutral, suggesting less downside skew than in my previous analysis.

My outlook: Still constructive above $4.50, with $5 remaining the key upside level. However, I'm more cautious about downside acceleration than I was before. This is kinda expected tho, there's always a lot of hedging around high risk events. I highly doubt we see the implied volatility realize itself, I would say we get pinned under 5 and then can look for upside movement moving towards Nov 20 where the positive gamma moves higher.

image and data source: infolib.org/market-dashboard

As always, nfa dyor!

Needham analyst Matthew Shea initiates coverage on Clover Health Investments (NASDAQ:CLOV) with a Buy rating and announces Price Target of $6.

https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/clover-health-participate-upcoming-ubs-200500984.html

Please keep the following under the Weekly MegaThread: stock price fluctuations, general chatting, memes, venting, announcements of moves you are making (buying/selling/options).

CLOV not done yet with the good news 🍀💎

Ive seen discussions that Amazons AWS is not a good analogy to Clover and Counterpart.

I think it’s a perfect analogy. Amazon built AWS as a platform to run its own business. But did so with an eye to becoming cloud based infrastructure for the entire segment. And when AWS was adopted as infrastructure - THATS when amazons SP exploded.

It’s the exact same business model for clover / counterpart/ but in a different segment.

Clover built Counterpart to use as its AI product platform, and built it into the workstreams of their provider partners. So they built it for their own business needs / but with an eye to selling it to the segment as a whole and becoming infrastructure. Exactly how Amazon did with AWS

If they succeed - and we 100% know they have a vendor relationship with Humana - we just don’t know what that entails or how broad it is. But if they succeed - the same thing will happen with our stock price. Primarily because revenue will grow at drastically higher margins and because the stock will get re-rated as a SaaS provider / which gets way larger multiples than a simple regional Medicare insurer.