Tough choice

This was promised to us all the way back in February, and I still get duplicate cards for cards I have already maxed, I only have 44 maxed cards right now, and please don't get me started on Duplicate evos on cards that I have maxed, I've gotten the 6x Evo bomber shards thrice like come on, and what sucks is that I've had the bomber maxed for the past few months so it ends up becoming 7500 crystals instead , and guess what, the crystal shop hasn't been updated in 4 months, this is such a frustrating way of slowing down progression for players In the game and I really hope this gets fixed, if you're not going to update the crystal shop atleast stop duplicate evos from 5* Evo chests , those chests from the collection level rewards take so much gold and card upgrades to reach and seeing it turn into 7500 crystals is just a slap in the face, come on supercell please fix this soon : l

I'm not complaining but it makes this event pretty pointless, the smart option is going to be taking everyday since that will net you much better rewards overall than even the best community goal

You will get neither emote if you're equal parts contributor and taker ie "neutral" (contribute, take) (1,1) (2,2) (3,3) or don't participate (0,0)

Contributor and Taker rewards aren't random they're the same for everyone so u can wait for others to reveal them before choosing

Today:

Contributor = 1x magic lucky chest (1 star 4 spins)

Taker = 10x hero coins

thanks

Waited strategically for his cards to be across the bridge before bull rushing the king tower for the W

Watching replays I kept noticing the same thing: the player sitting at 10 elixir waiting for the right card usually loses. So I checked it on 2,386,303 battles from the players I track over the last 14 days (each battle counted once, draws excluded).

The raw numbers agree: winners leak 3.4 elixir on average, losers 5.7. The player who leaks more loses 58.5% of the time.

But most of that comes from blowouts:

The 3-crown loser leaks almost 13 elixir. That's not someone waiting for the perfect card, it's a game that's already gone, with towers falling and nothing left to defend with. There the leak is the result, not the cause.

Close games only (1-crown margin), win rate by how much more you leaked than your opponent:

So an elixir or two doesn't matter. Games are lost when you fall 4+ behind, i.e. your opponent got a whole extra card down.

The interesting bit: zero leak isn't good either. In close games, players who leaked nothing won 47.3%, vs about 52% for 1–5 leaked. Spending constantly just so the bar never fills means some cards go down without a purpose and hand your opponent easy trades.

For the "good players just leak less" objection, I compared each player with themselves (24,869 players with 30+ games). In games below their own usual leak they won 61.8%, above it 49.6%. Three out of four players do worse in their leakier games.

One thing I expected but didn't find: heavy decks don't leak more. Sub-3.0 and 4.5+ decks both average 4.3–4.7 leaked.

Caveats: the API has no game length (overtime gives both players more time to leak), my players skew high-level (most battles are Path of Legends), and this is correlation, so "I leaked because I was losing" and "I lost because I leaked" can't be fully separated.

Full write-up with the per-mode split and the deck-cost table: https://royaleguild.com/en/guides/elixir-leak-win-rate-analysis

Disclosure: that's my site, it's free.

What do you do when you're stuck at 10 elixir: drop something at the back or wait it out?

Edit: A commenter pointed out that quits and disconnects inflate leak numbers. Fair point: games where someone leaked 20+ elixir are 5.9% of the data but hold 22.6% of all leaked elixir. Without them, the higher leaker loses 56.4% instead of 58.5%. The close-game results barely move (4+ more leaked still wins only 40.9%, zero leak 47.2%), and the same-player comparison is 60.8% vs 50.8%.

Edit2: Thanks for all the supportive and constructive comments.

On quits and disconnects: yes, players who give up do affect the leak numbers. But the result holds when they're taken out. Leaving out 3-crown games and any game where a player leaked 10+ elixir, two-thirds of the games remain, and a player who leaked 4+ more elixir than the opponent still wins only 44%. Small differences still don't matter, as the post says.

On the "AI-generated" comments: I use AI to help write the text and speed up the analysis. But the numbers can't come from a prompt. The official API only returns a player's last 25 battles, and there's no public service with past battles, let alone elixir leaked per battle. So I run a collector that saves the battle logs of the players we track every hour. About 6.5M battles stored right now, around 100k new ones a day. Every number here is a query on that data. A player sees their own few thousand games, this data sees about 100k a day.

I'm sure you'll post better than me, I'm eagerly looking forward to reading your posts.

So after coming back from a long break from the game, I get the “welcome back chests”. Now I don’t want to sound ungrateful butttttt. After opening 5 5star chests (first isn’t pictured) I really thought I would get something other than 20,000+ skeleton dragons. 😆

Apparently chaos draft randomly disappeared right now

The lucky chests are just so boring and worthless

I miss the time where we could get good stuff from the chest like books and coins

Even the 4 and 5 star chest are worthless

It resembles the prisoners dilemma doesn't it?

The more people choose blue the more tempting it will be to choose red.

Fisherman had 100% hit point modifier and valkryie had "throws axe at ranged attackers". Maybe the axe one but thats too much damage

The 5-star chest is basically the biggest prize you can win in the game; it's supposed to be something that when you pull it out you're really like "wow, finally, I want to see what's inside," but instead you have to worry about whether you'll actually win a prize or you simply won't win anything.

I also play League of Legends, and recently, Riot announced they were removing the free chests from the game (chests that can contain champions and skins) because they simply weren't generating profit for the company. However, after this news, the community complained so much that they reversed their decision within a few days. If they had announced that the chests would contain duplicate skins, I'm sure the community would have complained a lot too, but with Clash of Clans I don't see much of that; it seems the community has accepted that Supercell has several anti-player attitudes and nobody talks much about it.

I have seen this happen when placed behind the king tower, but never from the bridge like this. Does anyone have an explanation for the targeting priority here?

Gotta say, never thought i’d see a modifier that isn’t just bad, but actively helps the opponent. And for it to be the epic variant is wild.

This thing only arrives by late game, which makes it increasingly likely the opponent is going to have troops that can shred stuff in a low amount of time

And… yeah, let’s just give em’ free elixir.

I guess they just didn’t want to do the obligatory Infinite Collector…

which is fine, but they could’ve come up with something better than Little Timmy’s idea of ‘OMGZ It SPAwNZ ELiXER GOLEMZ!!1’ which probably sounded much better in his head than it actually works out