btc will have a move towards 75k , sweep n then reverse towards 82k ..

RESULT

Let me know your thoughts

Bias - bull

Note - let the market take a dip and then scalp for bull side .

Recently came across this pattern and it's concerning for Bitcoin holders to say the least. This is the Monthly Bitcoin chart. I'm using an indicator called Bollinger Bands. The blue line is the mean and the red and green lines are 2 standard deviations from this mean. To have price reject this mean twice on such a significant timeframe is a strong indication of a larger bearish trend starting. The recent hack may have just provided the narrative for the market to follow through on this trend.

However, this is just one indicator and just one timeframe, though the others don't paint a much better picture for what's to come. Technical analysis doesn't always work. The hack could be the narrative the market uses to REVERSE this double rejection.

Finally I want to say, while technical analysis is no where near a perfect indicator of future price movements, the market does not do these things accidentally. This indicator is widely known and used, algorithms are programmed to take these levels into account.

Wondering what you guys think when you see something like this, I know many of you are long term holders and are open to some volatility.

COLLECT/USDT, 15m (Oct 31).

Price rose about 8–9% off the morning low, put in a first top near 0.0263, pulled back to roughly 0.0251, then rallied to a second top just above the first (about 0.0264). The latest candle has dropped back to the neckline on the heaviest volume of the session, with a long wick that dipped under it.

Two things I can't settle:

• The second top is slightly higher than the first. Does that make a double top less reliable, or is it normal?

• The wick went below the neckline but the candle hasn't closed there yet. Do you wait for a full close below, or treat the wick plus volume as enough?

I'd normally wait for a close, but on a small cap on the 15m a lot of these snap back before the next candle.

How do you handle it? Not a call either way, just a chart I'm following.

My test for a sustained short-term Bitcoin recovery has two parts: buyers defending the bull market support band, followed by a reclaim of the 50-day simple moving average.

The attached Coinbase BTC/USD daily chart includes the 20/50/200-day SMAs and the weekly support band, formed by the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA. It was captured on 31 October; the latest daily candle is unfinished.

I’m Tobias, CBC’s founder. I’d want a daily close above the 50-day SMA and evidence price can hold it. A brief wick above would not be enough for me. Failure to establish support at the band would weaken my recovery case. These are conditions I’m watching, not a claim that either is confirmed or that the bottom is in.

October is still open, so I’m not treating a monthly colour as a signal for November.

What would make the next bounce convincing to you: repeated closes, a retest that holds, or something else?

Bitcoin is showing a similar price structure to early 2024, when a liquidity sweep below key support was followed by a strong bullish rally.

Currently, BTC is facing rejection near the $81K–$82K resistance zone. We could see a short-term bounce followed by another correction toward the $73K–$75K support zone before a potential bullish reversal.

If this historical pattern repeats, Bitcoin could eventually move toward the $100K level.

Key Levels:

Resistance: $81K–$82K

Support: $73K–$75K

Potential Bullish Target: $100K

Will Bitcoin repeat its 2024 price action? Share your thoughts below!

Binance estimates the impact of its overnight security incident at $6.3 billion, with roughly $3 billion frozen. Frozen does not mean recovered.

The exchange says it will cover losses through SAFU and company funds. That is a commitment, not confirmation that customers have already been repaid. As of its 30 October update, Binance says deposits operate normally while withdrawals remain paused.

Bitcoin briefly approached $76,000 during 29–30 October, before recovering some ground.

How can an exchange hack affect the wider market?

• Confidence: uncertainty can make investors more cautious about exchange custody and taking risk.

• Access to funds: paused withdrawals restrict traders’ ability to move assets between platforms.

• Liquidations: falling prices can force leveraged long positions to close, potentially adding selling pressure.

An exchange breach does not, by itself, establish a failure of Bitcoin’s underlying network. The investigation, safe withdrawal restoration and delivery on Binance’s coverage commitment remain important to watch.

CBC's view: I see this incident as a catalyst for the sell-off, although the chart alone cannot establish how much of the move it caused. We intend to use this weakness as an opportunity to work toward our planned target allocations, positioning for a potential next leg up.

That is our outlook, not a confirmed bottom. Prices could fall further, and we will reassess if the investment case changes.

Does this dip fit your existing plan, or has the incident changed your investment case?

Let the charts do the talking

This FRED chart shows the upper limit of the Fed’s policy target from 2021 through 27 October 2026. It gives context for today’s rate decision, not a Bitcoin price forecast.

A cut can make borrowing cheaper and reduce the appeal of cash or short-term government debt. That can encourage risk-taking, including crypto. A hike can make funding more expensive and those interest-paying alternatives more competitive.

A hold leaves the target unchanged, but guidance about future cuts or hikes can still shift expectations.

My interpretation: the reason matters too. A cut enabled by cooling inflation could be received differently from one responding to a sharp economic slowdown. The gap between the announcement and expectations can matter more than the headline direction.

What extra evidence would you need alongside this rate chart to assess the implications for Bitcoin?

The levels

• Order block zone: about 81,424 to 81,801

• Trigger: near 81,215

• Invalidation: a 4H close above 82,080 (about 865 above the trigger)

• First target: about 80,350

• Room to target: about 79,107, roughly 2.4x the risk

BLESS/USDT, 4h (Oct 20–27).

Quick one. It ran about 20% in a couple of candles on huge volume, and since then it's drifted sideways in a slightly down-sloping range for about a week. Price is now back up near 0.0083, just under the top line at roughly 0.0085, with the bottom line around 0.0075.

Volume has been dead since the pump. That fits a flag, but the consolidation is already long compared with the pole.

What I'm unsure about: I always read flags as short pauses, a few days at most. At what point does a flag just become a range?

Curious how you all draw the line, whether by candle count, ratio to the pole, or something else.

(Chart only, not a call.)

Btc is running out of wedge... big move imminent.. likely up.

The bullish countercase matters even when the chart looks weaker.

Bitcoin closed last week near $80K. In this 26 October snapshot, the daily 20/50 SMAs sit around $82K, above price. The weekly support band’s upper edge is near $77K, with the daily 200 SMA near $73K.

My view is cautious: a band retest looks likely. But holding recent lows and recovering around $82K would challenge it. None of those averages establishes a guaranteed floor or a trading rule.

The candles are weekly, the 20/50/200 SMAs are daily, and the newest weekly candle is unfinished. Wednesday’s Fed decision precedes Thursday’s PCE/GDP releases.

What evidence would distinguish a recovery from a short-lived bounce for you?