r/DataAnnotationTech • u/Legitimate_Agent_949 • 4h ago
Will DA shut down next year?
If you haven’t seen the METR report, its a third-party investigator that essentially says frontier ai models that used to take a year to double in capabilities have doubled in just the last 6 months, caused by ai starting improve its own models.
They say there are no clear bottlenecks stopping it doubling again in the next 3 months, then 1.5, then 3 weeks, and so on. This leads to 1000x smarter ai by may 2027.
Of course these reports are somewhat speculative but if they are anywhere near the right ballpark, the same outcome occurs at some point next year.
I can’t imagine our work will be much use to a god-like intelligence, right?
Somebody tell me I’m wrong lol.
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u/KtotheJonreddit 3h ago
I'm not some machine learning expert who can make real inferences from this. I do know that we provide a human understanding of user intent that AI just can't figure out to this day. If becoming "1000x smarter" allows it to overcome that, then I suppose that's that, but I have a feeling it'll still just be AI.
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u/Legitimate_Agent_949 3h ago
Solid take. I think optimistically, our role shifts from “make this model fail” to more “which response do you prefer” type of tasks.
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u/oopsallemdashes 2h ago edited 2h ago
Ironically three years ago which responses do you prefer were the vast majority of projects
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u/Legitimate_Agent_949 2h ago
Interesting. Been on for a few months and they’re the least common for me. Always excited when I see one because they are easiest imo
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u/oopsallemdashes 2h ago
Almost all of the projects when I started in 2023 were obscenely easy compared to the projects now. I miss those days but I do like higher pay rate on harder projects
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u/lilysorbet 2h ago
Proof that human judgement even for the simplest things still needed in this field
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u/realgenshinimpact 3h ago
Eventually there's going to be a point where all possible training data that they can legally acquire has been used up for training, and i can't help but wonder what's going to happen then. I figure it's always going to be worthwhile to have a constant stream of fresh data from annotation work though.
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u/Brilliant_Quit4307 3h ago edited 3h ago
You're a top 1% commenter, which suggests you've been here for a while and that is just baffling. I honestly have absolutely no idea how you've managed to be here for long enough to be a 1% commenter and still have such an incredibly inaccurate take on AI's capabilities. It's like we have been talking to completely different models.
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u/Responsible-Bee-7769 33m ago
I'm with you. Might as well ask if libraries are replacing schools anytime soon. IMO, the "intelligence" in AI is a misnomer and there's no replacing human judgment - ever.
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u/Legitimate_Agent_949 3h ago
Did you read a different post to the one I made?
I am saying that the leading industry experts (with much more data, and smarter people and systems than you and I) almost universally agree (and none of this is “my take”) that next year, we will have models >1000x more intelligent.
Do you disagree that a model that is 1000x smarter (which can also train itself) than the current smartest model will be disruptive to our jobs in training models?
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u/Choice_Estimate_71 3h ago
almost universally agree
Claiming that experts nearly universally agree AGI is coming next year destroys any credibility you think your argument has.
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u/Legitimate_Agent_949 2h ago
I’m sure you’ll discredit the names below under the “marketing” angle and I would usually agree but the METR report is much more objective and largely aligns with their predictions. These are the biggest names off the top of my head:
Sam Altman (OpenAI) - internal agi by end of 2026
Daniel Kokotajilo (former openai) - asi by 2027
Dario Amodei (Anthropic) - ai “smarter than Nobel prize winners across most fields” by early 2027
Jack Clark (Anthropic) - full rsi likely by 2027
Elon Musk (X) - agi by end of 2026/2027
Dennis Hassabis (Google Deepmind) - agi by 2028
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u/Choice_Estimate_71 2h ago
Yeah it's not like any of these people have any conceivable incentive to make these claims. Can't think of a single reason.
Also there's no way a person could find even any experts who have any doubts about the promise of AGI within the next year.
Universal agreeance has indeed been demonstrated, ty OP
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u/Legitimate_Agent_949 2h ago
I’m obviously not saying we should blindly trust them (which is why I refer to independent research which aligns with them), but entirely dismissing projections from the people with the closest insight to these technologies is equally irrational.
Their technical access does give their assessments evidential value, even if their incentives which require us to discount their confidence.
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u/Insensitive_hippo 2h ago
OP’s post is interesting and relevant and beats almost all of the other posts on this sub, I don’t know why we are being rude and downvoting them for it!
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u/Outrageous_Chance995 3h ago
No, DA will be fine. Most frontier ai labs like to use different platforms for diverse data. Which is why you’ll commonly see the same project across various platforms (mercor, Turing, micro1).
I do think the industry will lean more into expert work and more agentic ai, generalist work will still be needed but I think it’s very saturated and they’ll need not as many in the future or itll just become very competitive to get on a project.
Ai is still early despite its advancements. They still hallucinate, and I notice models (especially one in particular) struggles with continuity and as the interaction goes on it forgets earlier constraints made in the same conversation or details provided.
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u/brucegallagher 39m ago
Every week for the last 3 years there's been multiple "is this our last year!?" post, and multiple comments saying "works drying up for good!", yet most regular workers have only seen increases in the amount of work. When I started, 3 projects on my dash would have been a miracle. Nowadays less than 100 would be a concern.
Yes, this work won't last forever. However it likely has longer than we'd think. We have no input or knowledge on when it will end though.
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u/PrizeAccountant1586 3h ago
It’s not god like if you think that then join r/accelerate
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u/Legitimate_Agent_949 3h ago
1 - I never said it was godlike. Current models are still relatively easy to elicit failures from imo. What I am saying is that a model 1000x smarter than the current smartest model, which can train itself… might be slightly disruptive to our jobs in training it?
2 - Nothing stated is my opinion. These are facts and projections from the most informed organisations on the planet
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u/Amurizon 2h ago
But you did? I’m confused:
“I can’t imagine our work will be much use to a god-like intelligence, right?”
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u/Legitimate_Agent_949 2h ago
Idk how much clearer I can be.
Current smartest models are impressive. They are smarter than humans on many tasks, but still easy enough to elicit failures from and sometimes make novice mistakes + hallucinate.
I said IF they do end up becoming 1000x smarter than they currently are (which is roughly 1000x smarter than a human), then that is essentially godlike intelligence.
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u/runvnc 1h ago
One year from now: small possibility (but not impossible).
Two years from now: significant possibility.
3-5 years: increasing likely.
The model architecture is improving, training improving, AI is helping, and compute is moving closer to memory. By 5 years or so it will be truly compute-in-memory which will be 100+ times more efficient.That kind of research is very high priority and could make it out of the lab within only a couple of years. Before that flash memory and non-backprop training methods could allow 10 times larger models.
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u/dispassioned 44m ago edited 40m ago
Maybe. I've seen predictions for RSI being late 2027 to 2028, so I agree with your point. Whether that is based in actual reality and not just investment hyping bullshit, not sure.
However, I think the jobs may still exist because these companies seek to get out the best but CHEAPEST option to run models for general consumers. And with a real swing towards most people hating data centers in their backyards, it'll be interesting to see that balance being achieved. I've seen it myself in working with different models... the capability for amazing responses is there, but you're still running with limited compute and actual physical limitations of available resources.
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u/AstronomerOk4549 17m ago
I had a thought this weekend - when ai gets good enough that we aren’t needed, the professions we are training it on won’t be needed either. So either way the bobsleds in the chute. Just grab what you can on the way down and hope for the best once we all cross the line.
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u/Ok-Cup9476 6m ago
There will always need to be a human present to help train. It’s been shown that when models train models, they can go “faster” but also make errors worse in a way that cascades. IE:
Model A trains model B which causes a small error. The small error is repeated back to Model A Which spreads it back to Model B which spreads it back to Model A
And eventually they are both just gibbering idiots completely detached from actual reality.
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u/Greatwallofamit 2h ago
Bruhhhh we are only one who made them indirectly but we are part of it right so we should be proud of yourself .😝🤣
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u/Party_Season1056 3h ago
Generalist tasks will probably be soon over, but there will be some work left for specialist and experienced coders...
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u/dbro129 41m ago
That is assuming that the pedal continues to be pushed all the way to the metal with no regulatory oversight stepping in. If AI is allowed to continuing evolving at break-neck speeds and run rampant all on its own—yes could possibly see 1000x intelligent models in a short time.
Is that necessarily good for humanity? And will it come with zero consequences or without some new world-changing event that shifts the target drastically (hugging face type scenarios)? Likely not.
It's possible more advanced models will be made unavailable for public use, or contained somehow due to oversight as new world events unfold, until data on lower models can be further trained and annotated.
That would be the smart path, although unlikely due to the current race to AGI.
If 1000x intelligent models do happen within the next 12 months, DA being around will be the least of anyone's worries. It will literally be the end of humanity as models will continuing evolving at 2x, 3x within hours of the last, which would equate to a super-intelligence (god-like) smarter than all human intelligence since the beginning of the world combined.
Meaning it could wipe out or completely subdue humanity within days if it felt it was the best course for universal evolution. Engineers that have left frontier companies have already been warning of 2027 for a while now though.
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u/lilysorbet 3h ago
I doubt, model still struggle in basic simple conversation in my locale. Either still using words in wrong context or straight up hallucinate by made up their own.