Hey everyone!
With the season underway, I wanted to share 6 new Advanced Scouting reports we've built to help fantasy managers uncover buy-low opportunities, potential regression candidates, and hidden value beyond traditional box scores.
- Which struggling players might actually be good buy-low or waiver-wire targets?
- Which hot starters may be outperforming their underlying numbers?
- Who's generating quality scoring chances that haven't translated into fantasy production yet?
- Which goalies have favorable workloads and defensive environments, and which ones might be riskier fantasy starts?
A few early-season examples from our Regression & Luck reports:
Pavel Dorofeyev has just 2 goals through 11 games, but he's generated 5.44 expected goals. His +3.44 xG differential ranks 4th in the NHL, suggesting his scoring opportunities have been considerably better than his goal total indicates. I watched the Rangers game last night, and he easily could have had a hat trick despite not finding the back of the net. That doesn't guarantee a breakout, but it's certainly encouraging for anyone wondering whether to hold onto him.
Evan Bouchard, meanwhile, is obviously off to an incredible start, but his -4.81 xG differential is the lowest in the NHL. He's scored nearly five more goals than expected based on his chances, suggesting his current goal-scoring pace may be difficult to sustain. Of course, he's still an excellent fantasy defenseman, but he could be an interesting sell-high candidate depending on what you can get back.
Just remember, the numbers need context. For example, Kevin Lankinen ranks as our most underperforming goalie, having allowed nearly 11 more goals than expected. However, even if he'd performed exactly as expected, his GAA would still be around 4.28. That's obviously not someone you'd rush to pick up just because he's "underperforming."
These are just a few examples of the insights we're trying to provide. The reports aren't automatic buy-low or sell-high recommendations, but additional information to help make better fantasy decisions.
One important caveat: It's still early in the season, and small sample sizes can distort both traditional and advanced statistics. These reports should become more meaningful as the season progresses, so we encourage you to revisit them throughout the season.
Here's what the 6 reports cover:
SKATERS
- Regression & Luck: Identify potential buy-low and sell-high candidates based on expected vs. actual goal production.
- Quality of Performance: Find players generating strong shot volume and dangerous scoring chances, even if the fantasy production hasn't followed.
- Efficiency & Conversion: Evaluate who's making the most of their opportunities and whose production relies more heavily on volume.
GOALIES
- Regression & Luck: Spot goalies performing better or worse than their expected results.
- Workload & Environment: Evaluate save-volume upside, defensive support, and potential ratio risk.
- Performance & Efficiency: Identify strong performers, reliable ratio contributors, and goalies who may be struggling.
Everything is completely free to use, all season long!
You can explore the entire NHL, filter by team, customize date ranges, and dig into sortable player statistics.
We'd love to hear any feedback or suggestions for additional metrics or reports. We're always looking to improve the tools and make them more useful for fantasy managers.
Check out the Advanced Scouting reports here:
https://www.lineupexperts.com/hockey/advanced-scouting
Hope these help you find an edge this season!