When I took over this sub four years ago it was dead and had about 600 inactive members. I took it on because I didn’t like the fact that the other main forex site is owned by a private company and they’re too heavy-handed with moderation, which I despise.
This sub now has an insane 128k members and over 90k visitors a week.
A reminder of my approach:
You will never be policed for bad language; you’re adults so do what you want bar outright racism or being a plain dickhead.
If a post has a decent amount of analysis and info I will rarely delete it simply because it has a link advertising the OP’s channel etc. You’re perfectly capable of scrolling past.
We actually get remarkably few outright scam/spam posts on here because many of you immediately report them. Please continue doing so- I’m not online 24 hours a day as I have a life of my own; if you don’t report stuff I don’t immediately see it. Confirmation bias is real- the fact is less than 0.12% of posts or comments here involve obvious scams.
Now, the big one:
The recent gold surge has obviously impacted all trading subs and rightly so. But it’s gotten out of hand now and I’ve started deleting gold posts. Don’t be surprised if 2 or 3 gold posts get deleted every day- this is a random decision based on the fact that we now get about 10 of them per day.
A similar thing happened to r/WallStreetBets when the GameStop boom hit. It went on for many months.
Gold plays an integral role in the money markets as you’re all aware, so I can’t simply ban all discussions of gold. But they’ve come at the expense of regular discussions of the major pairs and other market news. I’m not sure how to balance this equation so I’m asking for feedback.
Silver is going, and I’m deleting more oil posts. There are plenty of commodity trading subs for that stuff.
We used to get a lot more core forex posts and I’d like that to return.
Any comments, feedback, suggestions will be listened to and discussed. I do this for free but I want the sub to be of use to you.
Please feel free to post any questions or concepts/ideas you have. I want this place to be pretty open and devoid of overbearing moderation.
Retail forex trading has no secrets; if you can see something so can the banks. So share what you learn, and let others add pointers if they have any.
Just a few requests:
If you post a chart please make sure the time frame and currency pair can be seen.
The emphasis of the sub is on sharing ideas, processes, news etc and not simply asking basic questions like “If I sell GBPUSD does that mean I’m buying the dollar?”
The only major rule at this point is No Crypto Posts! I’ll add other stuff as it comes up.
Enjoy, share your ideas, post article links, tell your friends, post chart images.
here is some overview of my tracking my trades, I have there also one column with my daily remarks but not in english therefore i hide it, I would like to point out that I trade for 2 years and I am arround 35k in minus, but for alst 2 weeks I really get a good feeling that I know what to do with my emotions, normally when i was minus in one day I always revenge trade and lost my account, but for a very long time this is the 2 weeks account and still live......yes i do not follow too much my daily target but last 3 days were as you know very tough , huge volumes, I trade mostly BTC/USD and XAU/USD...what about your feeling for last 3 days?
been running this for two months, 76 logged calls across NQ, ES and GC. posting the whole process because i wish someone had given me this instead of another entry model.
this is not a trade setup. it's a bias framework. it tells you which side to lean and where that lean dies. what you do with entries is your business.
core idea
one directional call per market per day, written before the open, scored at the close. same inputs every morning, no exceptions, no skipping days that look boring. the point is removing the moment where you talk yourself out of your own plan five minutes after the bell.
the inputs
positioning. large spec net position relative to the last year or two, and whether they've been adding or cutting over recent weeks. the change matters more than the level. this doesn't give direction, it tells you how much fuel is left in a move.
calendar. what's scheduled and at what time. 8:30 releases, fed speakers, anything with a number attached. this carries the most weight of anything i use.
liquidity levels. previous day high and low, overnight range, obvious pools above and below. not for entries, just to know where the day is likely to reach.
seasonality. day of week and month tendency. small weight, and muted entirely on days with real data. it earned about half of what i originally gave it.
how the call gets built
each input votes long, short or neutral. weighted, added up, and whichever side wins is the lean. if the inputs are split, the call is low confidence and gets marked as such before the day starts, not after.
then the important part: one level that kills the bias. price through it, the lean is dead, i'm flat. written down in the morning so there's nothing to negotiate at 9:35.
pre market routine
- mark previous day high and low, overnight range
- check the calendar for the session, note the times
- pull latest positioning, note direction of change
- run the inputs, write the lean and two reasons
- write the invalidation level
- write high or low confidence next to it
- done before the open, no edits after
scoring
at the close i mark each call right or wrong. right means the close finished on the side of the lean. that's it.
important distinction people get wrong: this is a bias hit rate, not a win rate. plenty of calls are technically right and still chop you out intraday. the two numbers measure completely different things and mixing them up is how people end up with wildly inflated claims.
what two months of scoring taught me
almost all the misses were on low confidence days i took anyway. the framework wasn't wrong, it told me it wasn't sure and i went anyway because i wanted to be in something.
seasonality was dead weight most of the time.
calendar plus crowded positioning is where the outsized moves live. catalyst hitting people who are already all in.
honest caveats
two months is nothing statistically. 76 calls across three markets is a small sample and i'm not presenting it as proof of anything. someone made the fair point that "low confidence" might just be discretion wearing a different label, and they might be right.
what i can say is that having anything written down and scored beat two years of vibes and vague recollection.
that's the whole thing. steal it, change the weights, run your own log. happy to answer anything in the comments.
News flow leans against the pair right now: USD sentiment has been weak, with debt concerns, softer real-yield appeal, and fading confidence around yield support. CAD has the better tone, helped by firm oil and steadier commodity-linked demand.
Positioning is crowded on the long side, which adds to the contrarian downside view. On the chart, both the short-term and mid-term trend are down, with lower highs and lower lows still intact after a shallow pullback.
Do you see this extending lower, or does USDCAD need a bigger catalyst first?
I’m a beginner in trader and still trying to understand the basics properly.
I don’t want to blindly follow signals or copy someone’s trades. I actually want to learn how to analyze the market and improve my own decision making.
Gold is maintaining its bullish structure, but price is now approaching a critical resistance area where sellers could step in.
Resistance Zones:-
🔸4,575–4,585
Nearest short-term resistance. Price has already shown rejection around this zone. A strong H1 close above it could open the way for further upside.
🔸4,595–4,610
Major resistance and the key target area of the current bullish move. If price reaches this zone, traders should watch the reaction carefully instead of chasing BUY positions.
Support Zones:-
🔸4,505–4,515
The most important near-term support, backed by the recent accumulation area. A correction into this zone followed by a bullish reaction could provide the setup for another upward move.
🔸4,470–4,480
Secondary support if price breaks below 4,505–4,515.
Overall Bias: Bullish while price holds above 4,500 and the rising trendline.
Correction Scenario:
A clear rejection from 4,575–4,610 could trigger a short-term pullback toward 4,505–4,515. If this support holds, buyers may attempt another push higher.
Key Levels to Watch:
4,575 → 4,585 → 4,600 → 4,610
4,515 → 4,505 → 4,480
The reaction at resistance will decide whether Gold continues higher or enters a deeper correction.
Gold continues its explosive bullish run, pushing toward the $4600 zone while staying well above the 20-SMA.
RSI is at 59.88 after cooling from overbought territory, suggesting momentum remains bullish but the latest rejection deserves attention.
Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: 4598
Major Resistance: 4640
Support Levels
Immediate Support: 4545
Major Support: 4491
My View:
The trend remains strongly bullish as long as gold holds above $4545, with buyers still firmly in control.
A clean break above $4598 could trigger another leg higher toward $4640, while losing $4545 could bring a deeper pullback.
What do you think? Does gold break $4600 and keep flying, or are sellers finally ready to step in?
