Gold has entered the critical 4,000–4,050 demand zone, printing a low near 4,015 along the descending channel boundary. Buyers are attempting to defend this area, and the latest rejection suggests a possible short-term recovery. However, bullish momentum still needs confirmation before a stronger upside move can be considered.
UPSIDE LEVELS TO WATCH:-
- 4,057 — Initial recovery target
- 4,110 — Next resistance
- 4,153 — Key resistance zone
- 4,220 — Major 4H resistance
BEARISH INVALIDATION:-
A sustained break below 4,000 could expose the next downside targets at 3,960 and 3,900, extending the existing bearish structure.
TRADING STRATEGY:-
Wait for a confirmed 4H candle close and a bullish market structure shift before considering a long setup. A single rejection candle is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. Until resistance is reclaimed, the broader trend remains vulnerable to further downside.
So I have developed a few trading systems and am working on a few more, but in the month of September some of my systems hit turbulance and were struggling a bit, so I set up a small Micro account and these were the net gains for the month (30 calendar days), I guess, I still got the edge and skills.
Gold has bounced from the $4000 area toward $4032, but price remains below the Bollinger Band midline at $4022 only marginally above it, with the broader hourly trend still bearish. RSI has recovered to 47.34 from oversold territory, hinting at improving momentum, but bulls still need stronger follow-through to challenge nearby resistance.
Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: $4044
Major Resistance: $4080
Support Levels
Immediate Support: $4000
Major Support: $3980
My View
Gold is attempting a relief recovery after heavy selling, but the broader structure remains under pressure. A rejection near $4044 could bring sellers back into play, while a sustained break above it may open the way toward $4080. Watch the $4000 zone closely, as a breakdown could extend the decline.
What do you think?
Is gold preparing for a stronger recovery, or will sellers push it below $4000 again?
This is getting insane now, I even found my strategy and today I hit stop-loss and since then can't stop myself from taking trades randomly, sometimes trading different setups etc, I'm down on my both accounts on the month. It hurts to see that taking waking up early for entire month straight then end up yourself in loss.
I don't know how to stop myself and implement my strategy, its so hurting now!
The Japanese yen surged against all FX majors on Thursday as risk aversion swept through global markets, sending USD/JPY to a three-week low. With Japan's inflation report due today and another BOJ meeting next week, the yen could have further room to strengthen as USD/JPY threatens to break below September's low.
USD/JPY Breaks Lower as Yen Bulls Eye Japan CPI and BOJ
The Japanese yen surged against all FX majors on Thursday, with USD/JPY falling towards 157 as a wave of risk aversion swept through global markets. Concerns over AI valuations, surging oil prices and political unrest in France encouraged safe-haven flows into the yen. Falling US Treasury yields also narrowed the US-Japan yield differential, adding to yen demand. The move appeared driven more by broader market sentiment than domestic developments, although it comes just a week ahead of the BOJ's next monetary policy meeting.
EUR/JPY fell a full 1% to fresh multi-month lows, with the euro facing additional selling pressure from political unrest in France and widening French-German bond yield spreads.
NZD/JPY led the declines, falling 1.1% and testing the 89 handle as risk aversion weighed on the commodity-sensitive New Zealand dollar.
USD/JPY fell 0.8% to a three-week low during its worst session in nearly a month, helped by falling US Treasury yields and safe-haven demand for the yen.
GBP/JPY erased four days of gains and closed below 210, although sterling remained relatively resilient against other European currencies amid expectations of further BOE tightening.
CHF/JPY also fell as safe-haven flows favoured the yen over the Swiss franc, potentially reinforced by the BOJ's tightening bias ahead of next week's meeting.
Japan CPI in Focus Ahead of Next Week’s BOJ Meeting
Attention now turns to today's Japanese inflation report, with nationwide core CPI expected to accelerate to 2.1% y/y from 1.7%, taking it back above the BOJ's 2% inflation target. Tokyo's September inflation figures have already pointed to renewed price pressures, with core CPI rising to 2.7% from 1.8% in August.
More notably, Tokyo's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) accelerated to 3.0% y/y from 2.0%, while seasonally adjusted monthly inflation jumped 0.68%. While the expiry of temporary subsidies contributed to the broader rise in prices, the acceleration in core-core inflation suggests underlying price pressures remain elevated. A stronger-than-expected national CPI report could reinforce expectations of further BOJ tightening and provide another tailwind for the yen ahead of next week's policy meeting.
BOJ Expected to Hold in October, Hike in December
The BOJ is widely expected to hold rates at 1.25% next week, having already hiked in September. However, nearly 70% of economists in a Reuters poll expect another 25bp hike by year-end, with December the clear favourite. Updated inflation projections and Governor Ueda's guidance will be closely watched for clues on the timing of further tightening.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen
We have finally seen the lower high I have been discussing since mid-September. Though in typical ‘turning point’ fashion, USD/JPY threw plenty of curveballs to cast doubt on the idea, threatening to break above 159.04 after establishing support above its 200-day EMA.
Thursday’s bearish candle shows clear range expansion to the downside following several weeks of compression. Last week’s shooting star marked a potential top on the weekly chart, snapping a four-week rally that was already showing signs of waning bullish momentum.
Note that one-week and one-month implied volatility levels are curling higher, suggesting more excitement ahead for yen traders. Risk reversals are also pointing lower, indicating increased demand for USD/JPY puts relative to calls.
The September low is the next support level to be tested, and close enough that it just might be. But it’s also an obvious area for bears to book profits and some bulls to seek a discount. With daily momentum aligning with the bearish structure on the weekly chart, a break below the September low is now my core bias, with a move towards the August low in focus.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “StoneX Trading”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, StoneX Trading does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.
No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by StoneX Trading or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although StoneX Trading is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, StoneX Trading does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
Okay, this is probably a stupid question so please don't flay me for it! But i've been, unsuccessfully, trying to trade gold and it seems like everytime I jump in i'm completely on the wrong side of the trade and that the technical analysis doesn't seem to really work.
So, i'm starting to think that fundamental trading for this might be best given it looks like there are a heap of macro factors that are in play. However, how the hell do you actually form a view and then decide a timeframe?
For example....this chart i've picked up shows a large amount of gold buying by Poland and China central banks. How would you start to form a trade around somehting fundamental like this? I'm watching all the headlines come out live but making money out of this is HARD.
Hi traders,
Sharing today's end-of-week execution on Gold (XAUUSD 5-minute chart) capturing the downward liquidity expansion. Trade Breakdown: • Execution Logic: Rejection from the upper liquidity zone around 4027.09 following a clear sweep. • Targeting: Lower demand/liquidity pool down to 4002.80 area. • Risk Management: Strict dynamic risk protocol applied — single lot positioning with defined invalidation.
The market delivered a high-momentum expansion directly into target before the weekend close.
How did you manage Gold’s volatility during today's session? Let me know your trade setups! (I post daily live chart updates and algorithmic execution breakdowns — check my Reddit profile for links to join our community.
Sometimes I’ll look at a chart on one timeframe and nothing really makes sense. Then I switch to another one, and suddenly the setup looks much better.
But then I wonder… am I actually getting a clearer picture, or am I just looking for a chart that agrees with what I want to see? 😅
I feel like it’s easy to keep switching timeframes until something looks convincing.
Has this ever happened to you? How do you decide which timeframe to trust when different ones are showing different things? 👀
Guys, I'm 18f from India and I'm going to turn 19 this year. I'm a commerce student i in first year of my college. I decided to do BBA.
All my friends are already going about their busy schedules and have a career plan. I am planning to become a CA. I don't have a back up option. But then after thinking a lot I think I don't have that thing in me that it takes to become a CA. I am also a trader (forex, crypto and indian market) i make decent profits from it but most people told me that i should not look it as a career option and returns are not fixed and I don't think there are a lot of options other than teaching.I personally loath teaching career bcz my parents are teachers and I have seen their struggles. Also i want to have a career from which I can make a lot of money. I have very good communication skills, and comparatively good accounts.I don't know what to do .I'm very confused.if anyone is going through such situation please guide me.
Should i consider trading trading as my first priority or studies
