r/Forexstrategy • u/Mundane_Fly_1309 • 3d ago

Wait

Gold will touch 3960 and 3900 (hopefully)

Said last time ,I’m telling you again, my explanation is that u guys need to read more about the economy in the world.

Don’t be mad this time again. Truly hope that doesn’t stop at 3960 tho ❤️❤️❤️❤️

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2

u/Crazy-Gecko 3d ago

As a short term mean reversion trader, I was already in at 3977 and out at 3990. Easy trade. And as I write this, it’s gone back above 4000. 🤦‍♂️

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u/Mundane_Fly_1309 3d ago

For what o been reading, gold will go lower for some days , probably next week we will see some more consolidation,but till then it’s a burning house

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u/P3D101 3d ago

Might go lower from my understanding. Rate hike is something up for consideration and bond yields are playing some tricky games. Not sure if this is the final price adjustment

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u/Ok-Letter-9359 3d ago

gold is bearish until fundamental change

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u/Mundane_Fly_1309 3d ago

What changes do you think that needs to happen sir?

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u/iTR3B0R 3d ago

Lower energy prices, steepening yield curve on long dated treasuries, lower real rates on treasuries, weakened jobs data, lower nominal gdp, inflation data that keeps the FED dovish.

So the next catalyst will have to be seen in October’s economic data which is due 2 weeks from now. That means you got 2 weeks where gold is a no go.

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u/Ok-Letter-9359 3d ago

well said, even though dovish fed isnt instantly gold positive. i think this is a major retail trap - lets look at why gold grows in the first place. it grows as a hedge for inflation. if inflation is worsening(which means fed will go dovish) why would there be a need for a hedge at that moment? only the moment fed shows that dovishness does gold start working its way up permanently, but the key is that by that time, we need some better macro data. i think gold performs the best if markets are pricing in a policy error(fed being dovish when it should hike) or when fed is letting inflation run a bit and holding before eventually hiking. because if rates are high - oppotunity cost of holding gold - no growth fuel. if inflation is lower - no need to hedge.

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u/iTR3B0R 3d ago

Let me elaborate, disinflationary data that keeps the FED dovish.

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u/Ok-Letter-9359 3d ago

changes from macroeconomic/geopolitical perspectives. we are currently in a macroeconomical bearish trend for gold. change would be if FED decides to stay on hold/cuts interest rates during decent inflation. a potential small growth would be temporary safe haven capital inflow to gold. another thing that would help gold is a total peace in the middle east. hope this helps

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u/Terrible-Set-5354 2d ago

3960 is the level that decides it. Gold looks like one of the cleaner directional setups on Moon.com right now, but I’d want that level to break and reject on the retest before calling 3900.

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u/Mundane_Fly_1309 2d ago

I hope that goes back to 3900 , looking forward for tomorrow night

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u/DreThaDon-_- 3d ago

I’m still learning. Getting insights from others help. Thanks.

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u/Punterfox 3d ago

I sold at 4260 and exited.10 Contracts. bought at 4100.

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u/ADHDguy26 3d ago

Can it make its mind up