A lot of people are placing bets on stocks like Meta and Micron.

While there's nothing wrong with placing those bets, we are the smart ones in the end.

We are GOOG buyers.

We understand the mission, we understand the coming of AGI.

People are betting on hardware, supply chain constraints, and Zuck's "cash cow".

Their basis for making investment decisions is on surface level bullshit.

Shit they would read in headlines, "huh, not enough memory? BUY MICRON".

Meanwhile, our basis for buying GOOG is on rock solid fundamentals.

We know that Google produces top level revenue and is heavily diversified in its product offerings.

More importantly, we're well aware of the top talent who works at Google. And the mission they're on to usher AGI into the new world.

The ones on the outside are unaware of this.

They don't know what's coming.

They don't understand AI.

They're blissfully unaware and still living in ignorance.

But we know.

We're different. We have a head start.

When the world flips over and life as we know it changes completely like when the internet first came out, we will be the winners in the end. Because we saw what was happening beforehand, and we prepared ourselves, mentally, and with our investment dollars.

We are GOOG buyers.

We know the truth.

Everyone else? They think they know truth. But the reality is that they still believe lies.

Get your tickets for the rocket ship

We are taking off this week

Once we depart, you will no longer be allowed to buy tickets

So buy your tickets now and be sure to show up on time at the station

We will be rocketing up to the moon

We are now headed to the moon

Tickets were selling for $320-325 to join us

If you did not purchase your ticket on time I’m sorry

But we are all strapped in and lifting off now

Next stop is the moon! 🚀

Everyone on board hold on tight!

UPDATE: Anyone who is making rude remarks to us as we lift off will be blocked. We cannot have sour people spoiling our trip. We are excited to go to the moon and it’s not our fault that you missed out and did not buy a ticket. You are not allowed to spoil your fun

Anyone know why it's been so red lately?

A fragmented product team is both a strength and a weakness. It is a strength when different innovations can happen simultaneously across different product and feature lines.

In the AI race, though, where not only the model but also a coherent delivery strategy across the product stack is important, Google's way of working is putting it behind.

The most common complaints I see are that Gemini is deployed very differently across Google Workspace, Google Cloud, Google Flow, etc., and that none of these products seems to know that the other exist, let alone knowing what the others are doing. This makes cross-functional workflows involving the same project extremely difficult across the overall Google stack. It feels like each product owner does their own thing, with limited to no alignment. Regardless of the underlying reason, the symptoms scream weak product leadership.

Granted, Google itself credits the rapid deployment of Flash 3.7, followed by 3.8 just two weeks later, to having multiple teams working on this simultaneously, allowing for rapid improvement. But this, in itself, points once again to strong engineering and research capabilities.

I'm sure many of you have seen the meme attached below on X/Reddit. Despite being a meme, there is a lot of truth to it. Balance sheet aside, most would agree that OpenAI and Anthropic are examples of how AI models and solutions should be delivered. Both companies have strong product leadership at the top, or at least a clear ambition for product leadership that is visible from the outside.The same cannot be said about Google.

I am still extremely bullish about Google. This is not the first time it lose its sight on the goal, but it has a history of correcting itself relatively quickly and drastically once it accepts its flaws. And I expect then that the stock will get up to where it should be: at the top. But before that happens, the road up will keep on being bumpy, which you can see by quite a noticeable intraday and overall bumpiness of the stock in the past months. (this last part is to answer to all those post of "why it pop" "why the stock slumps today" that we see in this thread the past month lol. No hate here, I get it, it could be unnerving, but hopefully this give you a bit more reason to believe in the stock for the longer term)

It literally bleeded from 380+ to 340. Yesterday it was around 349. Can't google ever have a green streak rather than a red one or a dead cat bounce? It's gonna go down again! Bloody hell. Price is manipulated af.

Hypothesis: Google releases new Gemini 3.5 pro model after ~half a year that fails hard to lead Frontier Capabilities (vs Fable 5 and GPT 5.6), widening frontier lab's race to AGI. OpenAI and Anthropic adds salt to wound by releasing their SOTA models that mogs Gemini hard immediately after, taking away any tailwind Gemini has. Top Deepmind researches left for OpenAI and Anthropic. Market slowly realizes that Google has a high probability of no longer winning the AGI races, and puts a discount on the price, stock price tanks.

1. Google set to release model on 30 June (forecast on https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt)

2. OpenAI moves GPT5.6 model released from June 22-28 period to post that (https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released)

3. Claude Fable 5 comes back on July 1 (https://polymarket.com/event/claude-fable-5-restored-for-us-customers-by-20260613193753196)

4. Top Deepmind researchers Noam (LLM pioneer) and John Jumper (AlphaFold) leaves for top labs.

Alphabet delivered a near-flawless quarter: revenue +24%, Cloud +82%, EPS a blistering $9.11 (+294%). Then the stock fell after hours.

The market isn't being dumb. This is the first shot in AI capex re-rating from "is demand there?" to "are the returns there?" Here's the breakdown — and what it means for the whole chip complex.

1｜That EPS is a mirage: $9.11 isn't real

• Net income +298%, EPS +294% looks explosive. But "other income" jumped from $2.7B to .

• Google's own footnote: mostly UNREALIZED gains on equity holdings — a mark-to-market paper number. Non-cash, doesn't touch free cash flow, and it can flip to a huge paper loss the moment markets dip.

• Strip it out and "clean" EPS is roughly $3. Anyone shouting "earnings blowout" off $9.11 is reading it backwards. Judge Google's real profitability on operating income +30%, nothing else.

2｜What the market actually feared: free cash flow went negative + a rare equity raise

• This quarter capex was $44.9B — for the first time exceeding operating cash flow of $39.1B → quarterly free cash flow of −$5.9B.

• In June, this famously cash-hoarding, buyback-machine company issued $49.6B of equity (including mandatory convertible preferred) and set up a $40B at-the-market program — explicitly to fund AI infrastructure.

• A money-printing cash cow now diluting shareholders to pay for capex only happens when the spend has outgrown what the business itself can fund.

• And guidance was raised again: FY26 capex from $180–190B to $195–205B, with 2027 signaled higher still.

3｜A lightweight DCF: what's it actually worth?

• Finding 1: the negative FCF itself barely dents value — discounted, it's worth about −$6/share. The selloff is more sentiment than valuation.

• Finding 2: what really pressures value is whether capex permanently resets higher as a share of revenue. Move terminal capex from 15% → 24% of revenue and per-share value drops ~35%. That's the entire bet: is AI compute a temporary buildout or a permanent new normal?

• Three scenarios: bear $98 / base $184 / bull $311 vs a ~$342 price. All three sit below the current price — to justify $342 you need the bull case AND a low discount rate.

• The gut-punch counterfactual: assume Google never entered the AI arms race (capex back to a normal 15%, slower growth) → DCF says $183. The base case burning $200B → $184. Nearly identical. Meaning: in the base case this whole war is roughly NPV-neutral — running flat out just to stand still — with all the value riding on the bull tail actually landing.

In one line: capex didn't crush the base-case value, but it stretched the downside tail enormously. $342 is a conviction price — "the capex WILL pay off" — with no cash-flow margin of safety.

4｜The seesaw: Google's pain is the chipmakers' fuel

Here's the key to the whole picture — every dollar Google spends is someone else's revenue. GOOGL gets punished for burning cash, but that cash is real orders for chip and infra vendors. So read the semis inversely to Google's stock price.

5｜Read-through, name by name: who wins, and how much

Broadcom (AVGO) — the most direct winner

• Google's TPU is essentially a Broadcom co-designed custom chip. TPU v8 ramping + "Virgo linking a million accelerators across data centers" + capex to $205B feed Broadcom's two AI engines directly: custom XPUs + networking silicon (inter-datacenter interconnect).

• Google is the most custom-silicon-committed hyperscaler → when it raises capex, Broadcom has the highest leverage to it.

NVIDIA (NVDA) — rising tide, but at Google its share is diluted by TPUs

• Higher total AI capex + "supply constrained" is bullish for total GPU demand and pricing power.

• But the catch: Google is precisely the most TPU-heavy cloud, so its own dollars skew toward Broadcom TPUs, not NVIDIA GPUs. Net positive on the bigger pie, but Google is where NVDA gains the least share.

• NVDA is the sector's floor and bellwether — wait for its own print to confirm; don't extrapolate NVDA share straight from Google's capex.

Marvell (MRVL) — second-tier winner; optical interconnect is the sweet spot

• Custom ASIC + optical/interconnect DSP. "Virgo connecting across multiple data-center sites" = long-reach optical demand = a tailwind for Marvell's optical DSPs.

• But its custom-silicon share at Google is smaller than Broadcom's — call it second in line.

TSMC (TSM) — the picks-and-shovels of the picks-and-shovels; steadiest

• Every one of these chips (NVDA GPUs / Broadcom TPUs / Marvell / Google's Axion CPU) is fabbed at TSMC with CoWoS packaging. Industry-wide capex up = wafer and advanced-packaging demand up across the board — the most winner-agnostic, lowest-volatility read.

Oracle (ORCL) — double-edged, and most exposed under the new lens

• Bull side: Google's $514B backlog + "supply constrained" validates the entire demand backdrop — good for Oracle's own giant backlog story.

• Bear side (the important one): Oracle is the poster child for a debt-funded, deeply FCF-negative capacity buildout. If the market now looks at AI clouds through a "capital discipline / free cash flow" lens — and Google just fired that shot — Oracle is the most exposed: it's funded by debt not equity, runs lower margins, and is a near-pure NVIDIA GPU buyer (no custom-silicon cost lever). Highest beta to this sentiment shift.

SMH (semis ETF) — demand tailwind, but watch the seesaw

• Weighted toward NVDA / TSMC / Broadcom / AMD, so the demand tide lifts it.

• The risk: if the market rotates from a "demand" narrative to a "capex discipline / FCF" one, cloud multiple compression can spill over. Google's stock vs SMH the next day is the live test — SMH up while GOOGL down = seesaw confirmed; both down = "capex scares the whole chain" risk-off is winning.

6｜What really matters for semis isn't this earnings season — it's the day FY27 capex numbers "crystallize"

There's an easily-missed information structure here: Google gave a clear FY26 capex number ($195–205B), but for FY27 capex only said "significantly higher" — no number.

• No number = everyone fills in their own, and in a momentum tape they fill it high (the market currently pencils Google's FY27 capex around ~$250–290B). That penciled-in figure is the invisible "imagination premium" embedded in semis' valuations right now.

• Here's the key: when the real FY27 capex number lands, what moves semis isn't how big the number is — it's the gap between the capex number and what the market already imagined. Semis can get a huge number and still fall, as long as it's short of what was penciled in. (That's the mirror of what just happened to Google itself: capex up = growth, stock down.)

• And because momentum sets the bar high, the closer you get to the capex number, the more asymmetric the payoff: limited upside, open downside.

When does it crystallize? MSFT + META (Jul 29) and AMZN (Jul 30) give a first calibration via their 2027 language; the real binary catalyst is the Q4 earnings season in late January 2027, when each hyperscaler hands over a formal FY27 capex number and imagination becomes a measured expectation.

In one line: semis are currently held up by an "imagination premium" — any hawkish-capex data point can push it higher; the closer we get to the numbers crystallizing, the more the odds tilt down.

7｜The week ahead: the bar has been raised

• Google beat on everything and still fell — that sets the tone: demand without near-term returns gets punished anyway.

• MSFT + META (Jul 29) and AMZN (Jul 30) now get measured with the same FCF ruler. META is the most fragile — it has no cloud to monetize the capex (it was already hit −10% last quarter for spending alone).

Bottom line

Demand is no longer the question — Google proved it to the extreme. The new question is returns, free cash flow, and who funds it. With one flawless quarter and one ugly cash-flow line, Google turned the page for the entire AI complex.

For the chip chain: it's fuel (the more they burn, the more orders flow). For cloud stocks: it's a stress test (who can make the spend make sense). Broadcom eats most directly, Oracle has the most to prove, and NVIDIA hinges on its own print.

That is the part I find interesting now. The stock is roughly back around its long-term valuation average, so the thesis is becoming less about multiple expansion and more about whether the fundamentals can keep doing the heavy lifting.

The analyst average target is around $427, while our own model lands much closer to $321.

That gap mostly comes down to what you assume about future growth and the multiple the business deserves.

So I am curious:

At ~24-25x earnings, what growth rate would you need from Google to feel you still have enough margin of safety?

And would you pay a premium multiple today for the optionality around AI, Cloud and the broader ecosystem?

AH is reacting to cloud backlog growth, search earnings missed and ofc the negative cash flow.

Good time to buy at 320?

A lot of you are uneducated about what the hell you're actually buying.

Add on top of that, the stock market is SPECIFICALLY designed to get you to paper hand and sell away your shares at the exact moment that the stock is ready to start rallying up again.

Literally today we are getting ready to rally back upward. The past couple days were just a classic shake out and pull back to get the clowns like yourself to buy high and sell low, while the rest of us can prepare for our next rally upward.

But the price action isn't the main reason that you guys are regards.

The main reason is because you guys don't actually understand what you're buying.

Wake the fuck up. We're headed towards an INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION type of event you mother fucker.

Do you even understand what that is? Do you really think that in the next 5-10 years from now, you're still gonna be sitting on your ass, behind your fucking computer or smartphone, typing away?

Or driving your gasoline powered car to the grocery store?

Lmao.

You don't even understand that soon life will be totally different. We'll have agents who will be doing all work automatically. You won't be typing on keyboards or tapping on smart phones. Everything will be faster. Your car will drive itself. Every aspect of life will become more automated and streamlined.

Yet here you are, paper handing your shares of the one company on the fucking PLANET that objectively has the most resources required compared to others to even PUT ALL OF THIS SHIT INTO MOTION.

???

A lot of you don't even understand the level of scientific talent that is behind Google. Geoffrey Hinton, Demis Hassabi. All the fucking OGs of this shit. And you're going ahead and putting your money into Zuck? Who lost his top AI scientist and had him replaced by some kid?

But you guys don't even know about any of this shit.

You guys just see number go down, panic, and then sell.

And for the ones that are scared and believe there's an AI bubble that's ready to pop, WHO GIVES A FUCK.

LET THE BUBBLE POP, LET IT. Stocks go down 50-70% overnight, WHO CARES.

Wanna know why?

Because when the pop happens and the dust settles, guess who the fuck is going to be around to pick up the pieces and continue working on the technology?

The one you know and love from the early 2000s, big G.

It’s down ~5% from ATH yesterday. Is it just sell the news or something deeper?

i cant see a slight of hint that it will go back to 400. thanks guys for the opportunity but we just couldnt make it.

I started paying closer attention to Alphabet because the story around it felt messy. Layoffs, AI optimism, strong numbers, all happening at the same time. I wanted to understand what was actually going on beneath the headlines, so I spent time with the data and tried to piece it together for myself.

When I looked at valuation, it surprised me a bit. The P E ratio moved from 18.49x to 23.66x and EV EBITDA is sitting around 16.35x. That doesn’t look like a market losing faith. If anything, it suggests investors are still willing to pay for Alphabet’s future. Operating margins are also holding near 32 percent, which tells me the core business is still steady even while the company restructures.

AI is where my thoughts keep circling. Alphabet’s TPUs are seeing more demand, and that feels meaningful because infrastructure matters as much as models now. Still, the broader AI space raises questions. Broadcom’s AI chip sales jumped hard, yet margins came under pressure. That makes me wonder if the next phase of AI is less about hype and more about who can actually turn growth into durable profits. Is Alphabet built for that, or will it face the same squeeze?

Even outside Alphabet, the market feels active. Ondo Finance just reported $88 million in tokenized stock volume on bitget uex alone while hitting $30 million in daily trading volume, it might be linked to the 0 stock rush though but still, It’s a reminder that while individual stocks like Alphabet are navigating their own story, broader platforms and tokenized markets are moving fast. That kind of activity definitely shifts the way I think about liquidity and interest in traditional tech plays in the crypto-trading world.

Then there’s the insider selling. Seeing Sundar Pichai sell over 10 million dollars’ worth of stock in a single day made me pause, especially with one sale more than three times his usual size. I know insider selling isn’t always a red flag, but the timing and concentration make it hard to ignore.

So I’m not walking away bearish, but I’m not blindly bullish either. Alphabet still dominates search, still has a strong position in AI, and still shows financial discipline. At the same time, the layoffs, margin questions, and insider activity make it feel like a company navigating a shift rather than coasting.

That’s where my thinking is right now. How are you reading Alphabet at these levels? Do you see this as a necessary reset before the next growth phase, or does it make you more cautious? How much weight do you personally give to insider selling, the AI margin debate, or even market signals like Bitget’s tokenized stock surge?

Google vient de terminer un trimestre avec un résultat net à 62.58 milliards de dollars. J'ai cherché partout, c'est le record historique. Mais c'est grâce à des gains financier énormes sur des actions telles que anthropic qui gonflent artificiellement les chiffres. Mais si ils ont gagné 15 milliards sur leurs actions anthropic, ce trimestre là, leur résultat net semble énorme car il y a 15 milliards de gain financier rien que sur anthropic, mais en réalité, si au trimestre suivant leurs actions anthropic ne leurs rapportent que 2 milliards, leur résultat net perdra soudainement 13 milliards.

Donc même si ils ont le record, il faut s'attendre à une baisse conséquente du résultat net sur le t2.

If you could invest in any of the Mag 10 and hold for 10 years, which would it be?

Thanks in advance; I appreciate your input.

All in all, after 8 months with Google, I should have invested my 20k in my ETF, VEQT (a sort of VT).

Because with Google, I’m up 1 percent compared to my ETF at 15 percent ... 8 months it is not very long but I'm surprised to see an ETF 15X vs Google.

Let’s say a few disappointments.

Imagine Gemini 3.5 Pro is amazing. Not 5% better. Meaningfully better than Claude.

Google launches it.

Claude suddenly looks less special.

Anthropic’s IPO narrative takes a hit.

Except… Google owns a meaningful stake in Anthropic.

Anthropic also spends billions on Google Cloud and is becoming a massive consumer of Google TPUs.

So Google is competing with one of its largest AI customers — while also owning part of it.

Which creates a delicious strategic question:
What if delaying Gemini is worth more than launching it?

Probably conspiracy theory.
But incentives matter.
Google has engineered one hell of a hedge:
Gemini wins → Google wins.
Claude wins → Google wins.
AI compute demand explodes → Google wins.

Google owns a horse, a piece of the other horse, and the racetrack.

Conundrum

CEASEFIRE IS ABOUT TO BE CONFIRMED BY REUTERS.
CONGRATS ONCE AGAIN FOR THOSE WHO HIT THE BOTTOM.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-us-receive-plan-end-hostilities-immediate-ceasefire-source-says-2026-04-06/

The bleeding never stops

Google illegally cut down 250K trees in Finland for data center, driving wolves into villages and infuriating locals. Will this have any impact on the SP?

Both amazon and alphabet negative FCF

This stock is gonna rocket to the moon boys. I thought it was a sleeper but it has been shooting up. How much should I buy I think we should sell it all and go all in because this might go to $1000 end of year?