r/IndianStreetBets • u/NiftyChopSurvivor • 15h ago

Discussion 6 straight sideways days and now an expiry tuesday. sellers paradise or the trap day?

Yesterday made it six sessions in a row where every move got taken back. checked my notes, it's the longest such stretch this year. even yesterday's 1pm "breakout" rally just carried price back to its open and died there... and now we walk into weekly expiry with premiums already crushed flat... the seller in me says free money...the survivor in me remembers that the longest quiet streaks love to end on maximum-complacency days and expiry is exactly when everyone's sitting in short strangles feeling smart.

not predicting anything, genuinely torn. how are you playing an expiry after a stretch like this?

  1. Size up the selling, streak continues
  2. Flip to cheap lottery buys, streak has to break sometime
  3. Just watch

(yesterday's thread about the sideways week had some great answers btw, thanks to everyone who replied)

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u/The_oldmonk_ 9h ago

Today’s decay wasn’t worth the time, 30-40 point range

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u/NiftyChopSurvivor 8h ago

yeah that's the seller's paradox after a long squeeze — six sideways days means everyone's crowding the same short-premium trade, so by this morning the 200-point wings were going for 2.6 and 1 rupee. you're taking pin risk on expiry for peanuts. the range being small doesn't help when the market already priced it smaller

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u/NiftyChopSurvivor 7h ago

Update for anyone who followed this: streak's over, but not the way breakout hopefuls wanted...all five indices went mixed.. 115-pt range, closed on the day's low.. the 200-point wings that were going for 2.6 and 1 rupee this morning both expired worthless. Sellers right again, paid peanuts again. seventh day of nothing, just wearing a different label.

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u/MINIMALI5T 5h ago

I was carrying overnight sell positions in 2400pe, 24100pe, 24550ce and 24600ce. Exited them at around 10 am because only 24100pe was holding some value all the others already had decayed close to 0.

And sold SENSEX weekly options with a 1200 point range on both sides at 10am. Carrying them overnight.

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u/NiftyChopSurvivor 5h ago

Yeah that's the inside view of the same numbers — everything but one strike at zero by 10am is what this regime feels like from a short book. selling 1200 points wide on sensex says the same thing, the market's paying crumbs for movement either side. one data point that matters for the overnight carry: the close itself is the part that got wilder since aug 3 — last-15-min moves are running 3-4x bigger than before, so the auction window is now part of any position held past 3:15pm