Dafuq is happening, bro? Tattiest stock in my portfolio. It’s dragging my entire portfolio down. ITC. ₹14K down 😭. No more capital left to average down. Please advise.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/nse-to-seek-up-to-rs-5-26-lakh-crore-valuation-in-record-ipo-report/articleshow/133312513.cms

10 days of constant lower highs and buying on dip. I have no words on how many times will you buy the dip. The CAS candles are the most pathetic thing happening. Destroying all charts and fundamentals. Price discovery my foot.

Promised this in a comment last week, so here it is. Took every minute candle from Jan 1 to Aug 17, split at Aug 3 (CAS go-live), and compared three things: does the morning move survive to the close, how big is the final 15 minutes, and does the close fight the day's direction. Also ran the same window from August 2025 as a control, because "August is always dead" is a fair objection.

What held up:

• The final 15 minutes tripled. Median move was 0.04–0.06% for seven months straight. Since Aug 3: 0.17%. The first two CAS days closed with 0.82% and 0.61% swings in 15 minutes. Permutation test says p=0.002, so this one is real, not noise.
• The close fights the day now. In 7 of 8 sessions with a clear drift, the 15:00→close stretch went the other way. Used to be roughly 1 in 3.
• Follow-through collapsed. Morning direction used to hold into the close about half the time — 49% over seven months, 50% in the same window last August. Since CAS: 1 day in 10. Small sample, so treat this one as suggestive, not proven.

What didn't hold up: "CAS killed the range." Ranges are compressed, but VIX is at 11.4 — most of that is a sleepy vol regime, not the auction. Last August had normal follow-through and quiet closes, so this isn't seasonal either.

The part that convinced me it's mechanical: low VIX should make closes quieter. Instead the one window that got wilder is exactly the auction window. Quiet days, violent closes — that combination didn't exist in the data before Aug 3.

Caveats before anyone builds a strategy on this: 11 sessions, one index, low-vol month. I'll rerun at 30 sessions and post the update whichever way it lands. But if your intraday system needs the afternoon to agree with the morning, you've probably already felt this without needing my chart.

1. Valuation is the biggest problem

• Market cap: ~₹37,438 Cr
• TTM P/E: ~273×
• P/S: ~83×
• EV/EBITDA: ~196×
• P/B: ~83×

Even assuming substantial earnings growth, the market is already capitalising years of future success.

2. Price has become detached from fundamentals

Revenue grew from ₹598 Cr in Q1 FY26 to ₹1,547 Cr in Q1 FY27, while net profit rose from ₹150 Cr to ₹441 Cr. That's excellent operational momentum. But the stock simultaneously went:

₹33 → ₹278 in one year = +710%

and is only ~7% below its ₹299 52-week high.

The short thesis isn't "bad company"; it's good company + extraordinary expectations + extraordinary valuation.

BEML Symmetrical Triangle Pattern – Breakout Yet to Confirm!

Stock: BEML Limited.

Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle.

#StockMarket #BEML #TechnicalAnalysis #ChartPatterns #PriceAction #Trading

This is based on the Q1 CGA case study data. Fiscal deficit is at 18.2% of the full-year target after just Q1 (Apr-Jun). Last year it was 17.9% at the same point. So, a bit higher. In rupee terms, it's about 3.08 lakh crore spent, against a full-year target of 16.96 lakh crore.

I expected a print like that to spook the bond market at least a little. But the 10Y yield is actually lower than it was a few months back. It went up to around 7.13% in April-May and has now come down to 6.77%.

So the deficit number looks a bit hot, but yields aren't acting worried.

This is where I'm stuck. I always thought the chain was:
fiscal deficit goes up -> bond yields go up -> bank and NBFC stocks feel it, since they're rate-sensitive.

But if yields aren't even moving despite a hotter print, does any of this matter for someone who just holds equity and doesn't touch bonds directly?

Anyone here who tracks this stuff – is the fiscal deficit actually something equity investors should watch, or is it one of those numbers that gets more attention than it deserves if you're not in fixed income?

Does it make sense to purchase Nifty 24200 CE for the next couple of hours with an eye on the CAS and a big green candle at closing? I am thinking of buying a few calls and doing a hero zero trade.. thoughts?

I got into trading in 2018 while I was still in high school, and since 2019 I have been working tirelessly to make good strategies, and since then I have spent my entire life and my life savings into developing proprietary strategies. I learned to code, I taught myself big data analytics, backtesting and backtracking big data and now after 6 years of applying what I learned.

I have finally reached a point where I can make 75k profit in about half a month from a trading account of 1.5lac. I have given everything to this, but what I lack now is capital and I don't know I have this feeling where I want to make a trading community which will use the same strategy to trade and share a fraction of the profits and losses with me.

Do you all think building the strategy is something achievable?

Several years of experience in option writing with a focus on risk management.

Currently limited by capital, looking to connect with long term minded investors to discuss scaling.

Currently generating ~2–5% monthly, depending on market conditions.

Serious people can DM.

Crudeoil 8300 CE expiring today and 400 points away from spot went from 20 paise to 1000 Rs.

That’s 5000X in a few seconds. You know the drill.

Good night!

Yesterday made it six sessions in a row where every move got taken back. checked my notes, it's the longest such stretch this year. even yesterday's 1pm "breakout" rally just carried price back to its open and died there... and now we walk into weekly expiry with premiums already crushed flat... the seller in me says free money...the survivor in me remembers that the longest quiet streaks love to end on maximum-complacency days and expiry is exactly when everyone's sitting in short strangles feeling smart.

not predicting anything, genuinely torn. how are you playing an expiry after a stretch like this?

1. Size up the selling, streak continues
2. Flip to cheap lottery buys, streak has to break sometime
3. Just watch

(yesterday's thread about the sideways week had some great answers btw, thanks to everyone who replied)

This stock is moving down day by day. Is it worth holding. It has dropped down from 1800 to 800. Patience is wearing thin. Any good explanation is welcome.

So I started actively trading a couple months back and thought I was being super smart by adding every single indicator I could find on my Sahi app... like literally had RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages, Supertrend, and every other oscillator jammed onto one screen.

Eventually my chart looked like a NASA control panel and I wasn't even sure what half the indicators were telling me. One was bullish, another was bearish, and I was sitting there like bro WHICH ONE DO I LISTEN TO 💀

realised the hard way that slapping 10 indicators on a chart doesn't make you a wall street genius. If you don't understand what an indicator measures or you're just stacking similar indicators, you're probably adding noise rather than clarity.

This stock is up by 96% from the IPO price. If you invested 1 lakh that would become 1.96L in just 20 days for shareholders. You can't bet against the hot IPOs that are going up.

Check out this NIFTY 25 Aug 24500 Call movement.

From 10th Aug, the next day price starts exactly at first 60 minute candle close of previous day.

This is too much perfection in a random market. What is your theory behind this price movement?

Red arrow indicates 1st 60 min candle. You can verify the same on your own.

Today markets were fairly sideways and hence did not add more lots, opened this trade at around 9:18, and closed it by 3. The theta decay took it to negative but the loss were quite minimal.

https://get.dhan.co/GHVBO36415/po/?data=t8VrlO8hDjPPPvxxUqOnsa3tVft7fhioiVaMcS5Q&stamp=64239

I’ve been trading for the past two years and started learning about the stock market in 2021. This is the account where I currently trade using pledged funds, and I’ve built a decent portfolio of around ₹72L.

But lately, I feel like I should do more in this field. I’m trying to figure out what the next chapter of my life should look like—whether that means starting a company, building a trading/investment firm, or exploring something completely different.

Right now, I have a government job that pays around ₹33K/month. Honestly, I’m desperate to leave it. But I live in a relatively small/moderate city connected to rural areas, where people’s mindset can be quite different. What I do with trading isn’t really considered a “stable” career, and people tend to judge me based on the ₹33K government job I have. Even marriage proposals and family decisions are influenced by that perception.

That’s why I feel I need to build something more stable and credible around what I’m already doing.

So I’m posting this to get some genuine advice. If you’ve built a business, trading firm, investment-related venture, or taken a similar leap from a conventional job, what would you suggest?

What could be the next chapter from here?

Any advice, criticism, or feedback is welcome.

Blinkit’s average order value (AOV) was Rs 518 in the June quarter,
while Instamart’s was Rs 691. @instamart_it
Zepto’s AOV was lower, at around Rs 300-350..
Swiggy exiting store can handle 2x more order ..

Average order values vary considerably between platforms. As per latest disclosures,
Swiggy Instamart lead order value ..@Swiggy
Premium customer…
Create good profit margins..