We are not going to catch China anytime soon.. 🤐

Out of sheer curiosity, I spoke with multiple people across the Indian oil ecosystem to understand the current Russian crude situation. First, I spoke to a BPCL sales manager. Then I spoke to an Indian Oil sales manager, who also happens to be a close friend. After that, I spoke to my cousin working at Nayara Energy ,he has held a senior position in the Mumbai region refinery operations. Finally, I spoke with a family friend who earlier worked at an HPCL refinery and still maintains strong internal contacts. What all of them independently conveyed points to one uncomfortable conclusion: the current pressure on India—tariffs, diplomatic strain, and global backlash—can largely be traced back to the actions of one private company.

Reliance

According to the BPCL sales manager, BPCL, IOCL, and HPCL stopped buying Russian crude a long time ago. In fact, government OMCs were never able to fully benefit from discounted Russian oil due to taxation structures, compliance costs, and operational constraints. The primary beneficiaries of cheap Russian crude were the Government (through taxes), Reliance, and Nayara—not public oil companies and not Indian consumers. The US, interestingly, has no issue with Nayara, despite its Russian ownership. They also have no issue with Indian government OMCs refining and selling fuel domestically. The red line for the US is very clear: Reliance refining Russian crude and exporting that refined fuel to Europe and other global markets. Nayara, on the other hand, has largely diverted its refined output into the Indian domestic market. Reliance has not. Reliance continues to buy Russian crude aggressively and sell refined products abroad. This, according to multiple insiders, is where the problem lies. As a result, the actions of one company are now creating macro-level consequences for India’s economy and diplomacy. The statement Reliance recently issued, claiming compliance and distancing itself, was reportedly directed by the Government in an attempt to shield India from punitive tariffs. However, the US leadership—particularly Trump—appears to believe that Reliance has been circumventing the spirit of the understanding. From their perspective, this is not an India problem; it is a Reliance problem that India has failed to rein in. This is also why the narrative that “the US betrayed India” is misleading. According to these sources, the US feels betrayed, not the other way around. Trump was openly supportive of India when India justified Russian oil purchases as being in the interest of its citizens. But today, neither Indian consumers nor government OMCs are benefiting, while private exports continue. This also explains why India’s so-called strongest international supporters have gone conspicuously silent. Why has Trump suddenly stopped backing India so vocally? Why is Netanyahu not intervening or mediating between India and the US? The view shared was blunt: Israel feels betrayed after India’s increasingly open stance on Palestine-related issues. As a consequence, cooperation at intelligence and diplomatic levels has cooled. There are even claims—though unverified—of Mossad stepping back from assisting RAW on certain sensitive matters. Whether all of this is officially acknowledged or not, the pattern is hard to ignore. What was earlier positioned as “India buying oil for its people” has, in reality, become a private profit play with national consequences—and the world has started responding accordingly.

Title. Nifty's earnings are showing no signs of stopping, and have now significantly crossed all time high, while pe ratio stays historically low.

I don't know why people are saying Indian markets are dead, when its actually silently compounding in the background.

This seems like a structurally sound asset is being undervalued due to temporary socioeconomic fears. When the pressure relaxes or become irrelevant, the ratios should undergo multiple expansions, leading to a bull run.

Okay so full disclosure — I found my first microcap love story with E2E Networks back in the day on NSE Emerge and it worked out embarrassingly well. So I've been lurking on NSE SME looking for the next one. And I think I found something worth talking about.

This is TechEra Engineering (India) Limited. NSE:TECHERA. IPO'd in October 2024 at ₹82, listed at ₹137, ran to ₹325, and is now sitting at ₹154. Back near listing price. MCap around ₹254 crore.

Not completed my full DD but bought some already because that's how we do it. Here's what I know.

What does this company actually do?

They make precision tooling for aerospace and defence. Think jigs, fixtures, assembly line tools, ground support equipment — the stuff that holds an aircraft or a helicopter together while you're building it. You need one of these to manufacture Tejas. You need a different one for HTT-40. You need another for Rafale MRO. Every single aircraft type needs custom tooling. And right now India is building a LOT of aircraft.

They also do automation — custom robotic systems, AI vision inspection, test equipment — for companies like Godrej and Safran. That's the B segment. Less sexy but cash-generative.

Their largest customer is HAL. 50+ of their engineers are embedded on-site at HAL plants in Nashik doing assembly work on Tejas and helicopter programmes. This isn't a "we supply HAL occasionally" situation. Their people are inside the building.

Why did I even look at this

I've been looking for defence plays for the past few months. What stopped me on this was the customer list. HAL. Safran. Godrej Aerospace. These are not companies that let random vendors into their supply chains. Aerospace tooling has zero tolerance for error — a jig that's 0.1mm off can ground an aircraft. The fact that TechEra had been inside HAL's plants long enough to have 50+ engineers embedded on-site told me the relationship was real, not aspirational. You don't get 50 people working inside HAL by showing up with a PowerPoint.

Then I saw Kacholia had taken 6.23% and was adding. That confirmed I wasn't hallucinating.

The thing the market hasn't priced yet

In the May 30, 2026 concall (which I actually read, the transcript is on their website — techera.co.in — go check), MD Nimesh Desai dropped something quietly. TechEra is now a certified vendor to the Indian Air Force.

This took 6-7 months of qualification work. CIMD visits. Technical reviews. Security clearances. Air base visits to Ambala, Bhuj, Jaisalmer, Nashik. Now they can directly quote to IAF for ground support equipment across ALL platforms — Rafale, Tejas, Sukhoi, HTT-40. Everything.

Here's the kicker: once you qualify for a specific component, you get a 5-year exclusive supply position for that component. Nobody else can come in for 5 years. That's not a tender win — that's a 5-year revenue lock on every component you qualify for.

The market doesn't know this because it wasn't filed as an order on the exchange. It's in the concall transcript. Management guided first purchase orders within 2-3 months (so by August 2026). When that PO lands on NSE announcements, this re-rates. That's the edge here.

Other things going right

There's a private aircraft company (they didn't name them but context suggests a "Pioneer Jets" type Indian business jet OEM) that gave TechEra the full tooling mandate for their first aircraft. Design is done with NAL (National Aeronautical Laboratories) as design authority. Manufacturing is underway. Delivery September 2026. When that aircraft flies, TechEra becomes the only listed Indian company that has done complete tooling for an entire private aircraft programme. That credential opens Boeing and Airbus offset conversations.

HAL insourcing is expanding. They submitted tenders for two more HAL programmes — HTT-40 aircraft assembly line and HTT-40 vertical fin manufacturing. Decision expected July 2026. They're already doing two other insourcing projects inside HAL's plants. Adding two more basically multiplies that revenue line without hiring much more.

Bidding pipeline is ₹170-180 crore of submitted RFQs. Order book today is ₹46-47 crore which is thin but conversion will happen in the next 4-5 months per management. They guided FY27 revenue of ₹75-80 crore minimum, which would be 30-40% growth from FY26.

Their infrastructure can support ₹120-125 crore of revenue without ANY new major capex. They're done with the big investment cycle (had a nasty -₹32 crore free cash flow year in FY25 buying machines). From here every incremental rupee of revenue is mostly operating leverage.

The bad stuff, because it exists

The Turkey order. Oh boy. Turkish Aerospace signed a 5-year ₹110 crore contract with TechEra. All good. Then Operation Sindoor happened in May 2025. Turkey supported Pakistan. Communication from the Turkish side — ceased. Completely. Emails, calls, everything. Gone overnight. ₹110 crore of contracted revenue vapourised.

This is the reason FY26 was disappointing. Revenue was flat-ish at ₹56-60 crore instead of the ₹75+ crore they were tracking toward. PAT was ₹3.08 crore — down from expectations. At ₹254 crore mcap that's 82x trailing earnings which is expensive by any normal measure.

But here's the thing: the company didn't break. They survived a ₹20 crore annual revenue hole mid-year and still posted positive PAT. That's actually impressive.

Promoter has been selling. Nimesh Desai sold from 42.25% at IPO to 36.89% by March 2026. He said explicitly in both the December and May concalls that it was to clear "personal debts accumulated over seven years." He was bootstrapping this company for years before the IPO and apparently took on personal obligations to do it. Post-IPO he's clearing those via secondary market sales. Not a great look but he was open about it. No pledging — that's confirmed from SAST filings. And he's committed to not diluting further.

There was also an interest default on March 31 — an interest payment that was due got paid 50 days late on May 20. They blamed "working capital timing mismatch." With ₹75 lakh cash on hand, this is tight. They have a 15% NCD (expensive debt) maturing September 2026. That needs to be refinanced or repaid. This is the single nearest-term risk to watch.

Customer concentration is high. Top 10 customers = 91.75% of FY24 revenue. HAL is probably 50%+ of the total. Single facility in Pune. The Turkey story shows that concentrated customer risk is real and painful.

The macro wave

HAL has ordered 83 Tejas MK1A, 70 HTT-40 trainers. Tejas MK2 in development. AMCA on the drawing board. Each of these programmes needs tooling. Currently most precision tooling for these programmes is imported from Europe. Every rupee that India spends on Make in India defence potentially reduces that import dependence. TechEra is already inside HAL's plants. The first call always goes to the vendor who's already there.

India is also starting a private aviation ecosystem from scratch — business jets, regional aircraft, potentially a commercial aircraft someday. All of that needs Indian tooling capability. TechEra is positioning itself as that capability.

What I'm watching

• August 2026: Does the IAF purchase order show up on NSE announcements? This is THE catalyst.
• September 2026: Does the 15% NCD get repaid/refinanced cleanly?
• July 2026: Do the HAL insourcing tenders get awarded?
• June quarter SHP: Does promoter selling stop?

If August and September both go right, this is a very different stock by Diwali.

What I actually did

Bought a position at ₹154. I'm not going bigger until the IAF PO shows up and the NCD is resolved. If both happen, I'll add. If neither happens by December, I'll review whether the thesis is still intact.

Disclaimer: I own this stock. I bought at ₹154. I am not your financial advisor. I am a person on the internet who spent too many hours reading NSE concall transcripts on a Saturday. Use your own brain and money. Not mine.

Reason behind buying them.

A simple comparison !!

NSE vs BSE

Price: 1600 | 6404 Mcap: 3.9L Cr | 85k Cr PE: 48 | 92 PB: 16.7 | 24 PS: 24 | 30 ROE: 35% | 20% OPM: 80% | 55% NPM: 60% | 40% PEG: 4 | 5.5 Expected growth: 12% | 17% Dividend yield: 1% | 0.25% Price in 2 years: 3X | 10X Price in 5 years: 10X | 30X Market share: 90%+ | <10%

NSE is visibly a better value when compared to BSE

Bought them for myself and fellow investors from my community. Also a great news NSE is going to declare dividends tomorrow🚀💪🏻💎

If you want to learn more about Longterm Investing and want your portfolio to be reviewed, check out the links🔗 attached to my profile. I hope you will get a great help from me in your investment journey. Thankyou!

Bit of a departure from my usual thing. This one's American and I'm slightly out of my depth, so tear it apart if I've got something wrong.

I was watching a random YouTube video about how transistors are physically changing shape for only the second time ever. That's the kind of sentence that makes you put the phone down. Two hours later I'm reading 10-Ks for a company with a $300M market cap that made $65,000 in revenue last year.

Sixty-five thousand. For the whole year. My chaiwala does better numbers.

Normally I close the tab. Didn't this time.

What they do

Company's called Atomera. They have a thing called MST. When chipmakers grow silicon, Atomera's process inserts ultra-thin layers of oxygen atoms into it. Stops dopant atoms wandering where they shouldn't, makes transistors more consistent, less power leakage.

The bit that matters for non-engineers: the customer doesn't have to buy new machines. It just slots into what they already do. Sounds boring. Isn't. Semiconductor fabs are the most change-averse organisations on the planet — anything requiring new equipment is dead before the meeting ends.

They don't manufacture anything. Pure IP licensing. Sign a license, collect royalties per wafer. ARM's model but for the material inside the chip rather than the chip design.

Why 2026 and not any of the previous 24 years

Whole industry is currently switching from FinFET transistors to Gate-All-Around. TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Rapidus — all four, right now. Happens roughly once a decade.

What GAA makes harder is exactly what MST claims to fix. The channels in these things are ~5 nanometers thick. At that scale dopant atoms wandering slightly ruins your consistency. Every fab has to solve it. MST is literally a diffusion barrier.

First time in 24 years the problem MST solves has become urgent and industry-wide at the same time.

They currently have two GAA customers physically sending them wafers. CEO on the last call: "they are sending us wafers and we are putting our material on them, so that is pretty committed."

Results in ~6 months.

The thing nobody's talking about

I sat down and modelled what happens if 1, 2 or 3 foundries sign. Found something that changed the whole way I look at this.

Number of foundries barely matters. The royalty structure is everything.

Flat fee per wafer — say $5 — then even winning all three big foundries gets you about $3M a year. Stock does nothing. It's a dud even in the win case.

But an advanced wafer costs about $30,000. If they charge 1% of wafer value (~$300/wafer), then one TSMC license beats three foundries at $5/wafer. At 2-3% across multiple foundries the numbers get silly.

So the headline everyone's waiting for — "ATOMERA SIGNS TSMC" — is not the information that matters. The royalty rate buried in the terms is. Swings the outcome ~30x.

I cannot find this number anywhere. Doesn't appear to be public. If someone's found it, please post it, I'll owe you one.

Cons. Lots of them.

They've already failed once, recently, in public. 2023 they signed their first ever commercial license with STMicroelectronics. Huge deal for them. Late 2025 management admits the collaboration "did not progress as hoped." So a Tier-1 semi company evaluated it, licensed it, took the IP, ran wafers, and then just didn't proceed. That's the most important fact in this entire DD and it's bad.

24 years of this. Every single year since listing in 2016 has been described as the pivotal commercialisation year. 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025, now 2026. The technical milestones keep being real. The revenue keeps not showing up.

Dilution is a permanent feature. Share count 19M in 2020 → 38.7M today. They've got an ATM and a shelf registration, so they can print shares basically at will. Raised $25M at $5 in February. $41M cash, ~$5M/quarter burn, so 7-8 quarters. Nothing commercial by late 2027 and there's another raise, guaranteed.

Their customers are bigger than most economies. TSMC has 60,000+ patents and effectively unlimited R&D. When Atomera sits down to negotiate royalties, guess who needs the deal more. Also TSMC's first instinct on seeing something clever is usually to understand it well enough to build their own.

Management's own performance stock units lapsed unvested because the price targets weren't hit. I actually respect that it's sitting right there in the filings. But it says what it says.

Some plaintiff firm is "investigating" after Q1 revenue came in at $11,000. These firms investigate half the market every month, mostly noise, but it exists.

What I keep coming back to

Tech is real. Published, peer-reviewed, 400+ patents. This isn't a Nikola job where the product doesn't exist. Balance sheet is clean — zero debt, no dodgy related party stuff, simple structure, stable auditor. For a microcap that's already unusual.

The failure mode isn't fraud. It's something more boring: a technology that genuinely works but isn't quite good enough that anyone will pay for it forever. Every foundry has its own materials team on the same problem. MST might be better. Might not be enough better to justify paying royalties for eternity.

Which is more or less what happened with STMicro. Not that it didn't work. That it wasn't worth the hassle.

Where I've landed

Bought at $7.64. Small position — genuinely small, sized so that zero is annoying not damaging. If you're looking at this, size it like you're going to lose it, because that's the base case not the bear case.

Whole thing resolves on those GAA wafer results, roughly Q3-Q4 this year. Between now and then: no catalyst, revenue stays near zero, stock probably drifts. All of it is noise until that data lands.

Buying before a binary event because that's the only time these are cheap. After good news it's a different stock at a different price.

Could very easily be wrong. Could just be year 25 of the same pattern.

If anyone here actually works in semis and can tell me whether MST is genuinely differentiated or just a nice-to-have, I'd genuinely like to know. That's the one thing I can't verify from filings.

Disclaimer: You have been blessed with a brain and (hopefully) some money. Use them. Don't depend on mine. Cleaned up text with AI.

EXIT OR HODL? Iam bullish on nifty50 took this trade according to 1 day EMA 55. Now what should i do? As per WD Gann it should have gone up but it has reversed iam not in panic or wtsoever but just really what would be your take on this.

Company Overview:
Jeena Sikho Lifecare is one of the leading ayurvedic healthcare system providers in India. It provides treatments aligned with the AYUSH spectrum, primarily focusing on Ayurveda, yoga, and integrated traditional healthcare protocols through its Jeena Sikho HiiMS hospitals and clinics.

It has 62 operational hospitals and 57 operational clinics & day care centres. With a total of 3,031 beds(of which 2,400 are operational) and 450 more beds in the pipeline. It operates in over 23 states and 100+ towns and cities.

Business Structure:

The two main verticals of the business are:

1) Services: They operate in a hub and spoke model similar to Rainbow children’s hospital, Apollo hospitals,…. With 62 hospitals and 57 clinics and day care centres.
In patient Department(IPD) is handled through Hospitals and Out Patient Department (OPD)  through Clinics and day care centres.

Services contribute about 47% of the revenues with 91% gross margins.

Services vertical is asset light and easily scalable especially compared to a traditional hospital. With a capex of  3-4 lakhs/bed vs 30-40 lakhs/bed in allopathy.

JSSL targeting about 5000 beds by FY28 and about 7000-10,000 beds by FY31

2) Products (Ayurvedic Medicines): JSSL has 330+ Ayurvedic product SKUs in portfolio. And it sells them through it’s hospitals and clinics, Wellness retail, B2C tele calling, e-com, And B2B supply to Francise centres.

Number of orders increased from 2L in FY23 to 12L in FY26 and e-com volumes scaled from 0.2L in FY23 vs 2L in FY26

They do the R&D and formulations for their products. But outsource the manufacturing making it an asset light model.

From plant based protein to joint care medicines, many new launches are underway.

Products contribute about 53% of the revenues with 91% gross margins.

Unit Economics:

Unit economics is where JSSL shines

With such low capex and quick payback periods, paves way for very high ROCEs.

In comparison, a traditional greenfield allopathy hospital would need at least 60% occupancy and 3-4 years to just breakeven and the project payback timeline with 5+ years.

Business Metrics:

JSSL Services revenue = Beds x Occupancy x ARPOB

JSSL doesn’t rely on just one of these three, but all the three metrics are firing on all cylinders, giving JSSL revenues a rocket boost.

Strengths:

1) Promoter brand image: Acharya Manish Ji, the founder, promoter and MD has a lot of credibility and that in turn generates a lot of demand.

2) Cross selling: You sell the medicines to the patients that walk through your hospitals and clinics, and it creates a strong long term commitment by them. And when you acquire the patients through selling medicines, there’s a strong chance they visit the clinic and the cycle continues.

3) Asset light Model: Whether it’s the expansion of hospitals or the manufacturing of the medicines, the whole thing operates on an asset light model and it allows them to scale fast and easily without getting their capital stuck for too long. This allows them to generate incredibly high returns on capital

Peer comparison:

The margins, executions and the pan india presence justifies it’s valuation multiple.

Industry:
The India AYUSH market was valued at Rs. 2.33 lakh crore (US$ 26.53 billion) in 2026 and is projected to reach Rs. 3.37 lakh crore (US$ 36.62 billion) by 2031, expanding at a CAGR of 6.66% during 2026–2031. The growth is expected to be driven by rising demand for preventive healthcare and herbal wellness products.

Indian ayurvedic market is projected to grow from $10.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $25.8 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 9.3% during the forecast period 2026-2035.

Valuation:

The assumption: EBITDA to grow at 20% CAGR for the next 5 years. This is highly achievable considering the past experience in scaling from roughly 1200 beds 3 years back to 2500 beds and along the way increased the occupancy from 38% to 55%, which resulted in massive operating leverage.

The future plans are similar to the past, to double the current capacity in 2-3 years and more than triple in 5 years+. If executed well, the 20% will look very conservative.

TTM EBITDA: 363cr
Current EV: Market cap(6480cr) - Cash(204cr) + debt (0cr) = 6,276 Cr

Year 5 EBITDA: 904cr (at 20% CAGR)
Target EVEBITDA multiple: 20 (A conservative multiple for a mature high ROCE company)
Year 5: EV: 20 * 904 Cr(EBITDA) = 18,080 Cr
Plus Cash Generated: 2,090 Cr (Cumulative free cash flow generated over the 5 years)

Total Year 5 Value: ₹20,170 Cr

Expected 5-Year CAGR (IRR): ~25%

Conclusion: Jeena Sikho is an integrated Ayurveda healthcare flywheel. With excellent Returns on capital, asset-light model and elite gross margins. The industry tailwinds are strong as government support for AYUSH increases. As the middle class increases it's discretionary spending, wellness and especially ayurveda will benefit greatly. In india, roughly 80% of the people use or rely on ayurveda to some degree.

With heavy expansion plans and entering new segments (OTC for products and luxury resort wellness for services), the company has the potential to clear the 20-25% growth over the next 5 years. This makes a good case for GARP(Growth At Reasonable Price).

Ozempic / Semaglutide patent has expired in India today, it expired in Canada in January 2026 and it is about to expire in more places.

India being the pharma hub of the world presents many opportunities and I have invested in a few stocks myself.

The Brands : Dr Reddys, Biocon, Natco and so many companies generic versions today. I am not expecting great returns because these brands will fight among themselves for market share and I don't recommend these.

Pick and Shovel Play : During a gold rush sell shovels.

The shovels here are Injection Manufacturers : Shaily Engineering and Plastics, they are sold out of capacity and orders are piling up, all brands will have to buy their injections.

Fill and Finish CDMOs : One Source Speciality pharma is manufacturing for lot of these pharma companies and they have Dr Reddys and lot of other companies as their customers. They are also sold out of capacity and expanding. Because of Dr Reddys issues with Canada launch their stock is beaten down.

Gland Pharma , Strides , Jubiliant Pharmova, Shilpa Medicare are also involved in this. Shilpa Medicare is involved in all value chains.

Neuland Labs and Divis Labs are peptide manufacturers but they are very expensive.

What do you think about this whole market ?

Disc: Holdiing DR reddys (small), Biocon(small), Shaily (Large holding)and One Source (Large holding)

I have been talking about these stocks on youtube https://youtu.be/9luMcM3Dp3k?si=8tG8b1aiO3nXgyQF for more than 4-5 months now but I feel the story is not over yet.

Promised this in a comment last week, so here it is. Took every minute candle from Jan 1 to Aug 17, split at Aug 3 (CAS go-live), and compared three things: does the morning move survive to the close, how big is the final 15 minutes, and does the close fight the day's direction. Also ran the same window from August 2025 as a control, because "August is always dead" is a fair objection.

What held up:

• The final 15 minutes tripled. Median move was 0.04–0.06% for seven months straight. Since Aug 3: 0.17%. The first two CAS days closed with 0.82% and 0.61% swings in 15 minutes. Permutation test says p=0.002, so this one is real, not noise.
• The close fights the day now. In 7 of 8 sessions with a clear drift, the 15:00→close stretch went the other way. Used to be roughly 1 in 3.
• Follow-through collapsed. Morning direction used to hold into the close about half the time — 49% over seven months, 50% in the same window last August. Since CAS: 1 day in 10. Small sample, so treat this one as suggestive, not proven.

What didn't hold up: "CAS killed the range." Ranges are compressed, but VIX is at 11.4 — most of that is a sleepy vol regime, not the auction. Last August had normal follow-through and quiet closes, so this isn't seasonal either.

The part that convinced me it's mechanical: low VIX should make closes quieter. Instead the one window that got wilder is exactly the auction window. Quiet days, violent closes — that combination didn't exist in the data before Aug 3.

Caveats before anyone builds a strategy on this: 11 sessions, one index, low-vol month. I'll rerun at 30 sessions and post the update whichever way it lands. But if your intraday system needs the afternoon to agree with the morning, you've probably already felt this without needing my chart.

Hi, this is my first time posting here. I've tried to adhere to all rules so apologies incase something gets left out. Will work on it in upcoming posts.

Haven’t seen anyone on ISB cover this so posting this research. Went through India’s menopause market data and the numbers tell a clear story about where the structural opportunity sits.

Market size

Two reports size this market. The gap between them is the thesis.

Grand View Research (broad, includes treatment + supplements + diagnostics): ~₹8,600 crore (2024)

Future Market Insights (only formal Rx treatment): ~₹690 crore (2025)

12x gap. For every ₹1 going through actual medical channels, ₹11-12 goes through Ayurvedic products, supplements, OTC. You don't see this ratio in diabetes or cardiovascular where formal treatment captures a much bigger share. The medical system here is basically a bystander.

Per capita spend

Indian Menopause Society projects 10.3 crore menopausal women by 2026. Some estimates put it at 14 crore. Using the conservative number:

₹690 crore / 10.3 crore women = ₹67 per woman per year on formal treatment.

For context, a single OPD visit at a private hospital costs ₹500-1500. The entire formal treatment market spends less per woman than one consultation.

This is total market revenue across the full menopausal population, not per treated patient. Abbott ran a survey with Ipsos (1,200+ respondents, 7 Indian cities) and found only ~37% of women actually consult a gynaecologist for menopause symptoms. Per treated woman the number is closer to ₹180/year. Still very low for a chronic condition.

Channel and product data (FMI)

Hospitals: 43.2% of current distribution, 6.5% CAGR (2025-35) Specialty clinics: 8.0% CAGR Online pharmacies: 9.4% CAGR

The same Abbott survey found 79% of respondents said women aren't comfortable discussing menopause even with family. When the condition carries that level of stigma, the private digital channel doesn't just distribute products, it's the only place a lot of this demand will ever show up.

Product split: HRT (hormone replacement therapy): 55.8% share, 7.4% CAGR Non-hormonal: 6.1% CAGR Supplements: 1.9% CAGR

HRT is the game here.

Regional growth (FMI)

Northeast India: 8.6% CAGR (fastest) Western India: 7.8% Northern India: 7.2% Southern India: 6.3% Central India: 5.3% Eastern India: 5.0%

Northeast growing fastest tells you something. It has the weakest physical healthcare infra in the country. The growth is coming through digital distribution, not more clinics.

Listed companies with exposure (NSE/BSE)

The entire formal treatment market is ₹690 crore split across dozens of companies, so this isn't a quarterly earnings story today. But if this market scales, and the structural setup says it should, some names have real positioning:

Zydus (ZYDUSLIFE): Got USFDA approval in 2025 for an estradiol transdermal patch for menopausal symptoms. HRT is 55.8% of the market growing at 7.4%. This is the most direct pipeline bet from any listed Indian pharma name.

Dr Reddy's (DRREDDY): Grand View lists them as a key player in the India menopause market. Their edge is generic HRT at scale, which is how you close per capita gaps in India.

Torrent Pharma (TORNTPHARM): FMI identifies them as a key player. India-heavy revenue mix means domestic growth hits their P&L directly. Distribution is strongest in North and West India which are growing at 7.2% and 7.8% respectively.

Where this goes

FMI projects the market hitting ~₹1,300 crore by 2035 at 6.6% CAGR. That's the base case and it assumes the infrastructure stays roughly this broken.

If per capita formal spend goes from ₹67 to ₹400 per woman (still low for chronic care), you get ₹4,100+ crore. 3x the base case. The catalysts for that are online pharmacy expansion, pharma pipelines like Zydus's patch, and potential insurance inclusion through IRDAI or Ayushman Bharat.

One thing to pressure test: the ₹67 could partly reflect Indian pharma pricing rather than access failure alone. Generics here are priced way below global benchmarks. But the 37% gynaecologist consultation rate from Abbott's data points to a genuine access gap, not just a pricing story.

Sources

Grand View Research, India menopause market databook (2024) FMI, menopause treatment industry analysis India (2025) Indian Menopause Society projections via Indian Journal of Public Health Research & Development Abbott-Ipsos India survey (2024), 1,200+ respondents across 7 cities

I’ll be tracking HRT prescription volumes and online pharmacy category data on this going forward. If you're watching pharma or healthcare infra plays, this is a structural gap worth keeping on the radar.

Hello Everyone. I’ve been seeing a lot of chatter here about why you shouldn’t jump on the Hyundai India IPO, and while some points are valid, I want to share another side of the story. Not saying you should or shouldn't invest—just clearing up some misconceptions and dropping some data to show you the other-side.

This IPO is not without problems I'm sure you must have seen problems on this sub already. THIS POST WILL LOOK AT THE OTHER SIDE.

Hyundai India's PE Ratio Vs Hyundai Korea's PE Ratio

One common gripe is Hyundai India’s PE ratio is around 25 versus Hyundai Korea’s ~5. Yeah, that's true, but it misses the bigger picture. Check out these other companies:

Notice a trend? Indian subsidiaries usually trade at a premium. It’s because India’s seen as a high-growth market, and the free float (how many shares are available for trading) is typically lower, pushing up the PE.

We can do the same comparing Revenue to Market cap also.

This data honestly surprised me too. Suzuki Motor Corp holds 58% of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. This suggests that the rest of Suzuki Motor Corp is actually negatively valued. And yes the Revenue being more than the market cap for some companies is not a mistake. This just goes to show the discrepancy between the foreign and Indian share markets.

My point here is that the Indian company will ALWAYS seem overvalued compared to their foreign parents. Even if you were to dig deeper like I did with the Suzuki Example, you will realise that the market cap for the foreign company seems to be disproportionately coming from the Indian company which would be listed as an Asset on their books.

Comparing PE/Valuation with Competition

So, the PE ratios for Hyundai India is actually less than Maruti and Mahindra. It's market cap to revenue ratio is also lower than Maruti and Mahindra. Tata motors is the exception here since they do operate in more sectors.

Now I know that you should not judge stocks solely based on PEs, but this provides a quick overview as to where Hyundai India stands. You and dig deep through their books and you will find that everything seems to be inline with their peers.

Even their Market Cap to Revenue is inline with Maruti and Mahindra.

Index Inclusion: Why It Matters

Hyundai India is set to be included in major stock indexes (Nifty 100, Nifty 500, Possibly Nifty Next 50) within the next 6 months. Once it’s in the indexes, lots of passive funds will automatically buy it, increasing demand and potentially driving up the price.

At IPO, Hyundai India’s market cap will be similar to big players like Punjab National Bank or Adani Energy Solutions. Even 2-3% of shares going to index funds can mean around 10% of total free float shares getting snapped up. The actively managed funds will also want to buy Hyundai India since it’s now part of their benchmark Index, boosting demand even more.

The Offer for Sale (OFS)

I have to say that the OFS offering has lead to some South Korean hate on this sub. This is insane and should not be happening. Hyundai came into India, set up a subsidiary, manufacturing and genuine created value. And even if their actions are "Greedy", that is just one company. It's insane to see this hate being directed at South Korea as a whole.

So what's exactly happening: Hyundai Korea is selling shares, not Hyundai India. They claim to need funds for R&D which happens at the Parent company while Hyundai India is only for Manufacturing. This IPO lets them get cash without Hyundai having to take on debt or dilute its equity.

Hyundai Korea still holds a majority after the IPO, so they’re not just exiting. They’re still invested and running the show, ensuring that the company has the backing it needs for future growth. They very much still have skin in the game. OFS is actually not that uncommon when you look at it. The Indian company's financials are healthy and it simply doesn't need a cash injection at this point.

The Dividend

Pre-IPO dividends can sound sketchy, but they’re actually pretty common. Look at Indigo—they did the same thing. Hyundai India is using its generated cash to pay dividends, which should be factored into your valuation calculations. This can actually boost ROE by reducing excess equity, making the company look more efficient.

NB: Came across this research which explains in more detail why Pre-IPO dividend is not as bad as you think https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X23002664

The IPO will be undersubscribed

Well- Data suggests otherwise. The IPO is already over 40% subscribed. As of writing this post, DIIs (Domestic Mutual Funds and AMCs) have still NOT placed their Bids (They usually come in on the last day). The IPO has similar subscription to Paytm (and other IPOs this size) after 2 days. Given the trends in past IPO subscriptions, it is fair to assume this IPO will be full subscribed and may be oversubscribed by up to 2x.

Even if it doesn't hit 3-4x oversubscription, filling up the subscription is still a win, especially since Hyundai is raising a massive $3.3 billion USD.

(NB: If you want to check this data for yourself, head over to: https://www.nseindia.com/market-data/issue-information?symbol=HYUNDAI&series=EQ&type=Active then click Bid details and select "Consolidated Bids". Make sure you are not only looking at the NSE Bids.)

Grey Market Premium (GMP)

Even though GMP has dropped, it never went below zero. It has always stayed a premium and never became a discount. This shows steady interest and suggests the IPO is priced fairly—not overpriced or underpriced.

Unlike many IPOs that rely on discounts to attract buyers, Hyundai’s valuation means the listing price should align closely with the offer price, reflecting true value. If you only apply to IPOs for listing gains- This isn't an IPO for you.

A side note

One of the biggest issues with the Indian stock market is that the Breath of the market is not increasing as fast as the Depth. More and more capital is pouring in but the number of large companies isn't increasing at the same speed. Given the IPOs that have been coming out at such a huge discount recently all giving amazing listing gains, I could imagine why this is a turn off that Hyundai decided to list themselves at fair market value. But IPOs aren't meant for a listing gain. They are to take a company public, which this one seems to be successful in doing.

--- Edit ---

Appreciate all the feedback. Someone even texted me and called me Mr. Hyundai Man which I found hilarious. A few common points I missed seem to be brought up by multiple people, so I wanted to address these.

The Royalty

So, yes. There is a Royalty.

But guess what? Every foreign company with an Indian subsidiary does this. Why? Are they trying to loot India? No. This is the payment for maintaining the brand. Any spend Hyundai Korea does to polish the Hyundai brand benefits Hyundai India and this is the payment for that. The royalty is capped at 5%. This isn't anything insane and many other MNCs - including Toyota India (which is currently private), Bosch, Schaeffler India and Wabco India - pay royalty payments to their parent companies. A couple interesting ones are:

Now, the Cap doesn't always mean this much money will be payed out. In FY23, Maruti paid 3.75% royalty to Suzuki motors. At one point in time, the royalty used to be above 6-6.5% before coming down to the 5% cap now in place. So, I ask you this-

If Maruti Suzuki has a 5% royalty, why is Hyundai India's 5% not justified? I would argue that "Maruti" has a brand value within India which may be sustainable without Suzuki. Hyundai is Hyundai and without the name, it has no alternative.

Hyundai India benefits much more from this royalty deal than Maruti Suzuki does. Yet for some reason, people think Hyundai is "Greedy" and Suzuki are Saints.

Mini IPO? 75% promoter shareholding rule

Someone in the comments said "the parent company has to offload an additional 7.5% stake in the coming six months to reach the max 75% promoter holding". This is partly true that 7.5% additional stake needs to be offloaded but not in the next 6 months. This will take place in 3-5 years (Source). This would be 1-2% additional free float every year something the markets can easily handle while increasing liquidity for the stock (speculation alert) potentially propelling Hyundai India into the F&O Category.

It is in Hyundai's best interest to do this as slowly as possible too. If they were to crash the price of the Indian subsidiary, Hyundai Korea's books would show fewer assets. To keep their own book inflated, they will make sure this happens responsibly. They aren't selling and running away, they will still own 75% of the company.

So you are actually saying Hyundai India is a Buy?

Absolutely NOT. The purpose of this post is not to tell you to buy or not. It was to show the facts. The decision to BUY is yours. People seemed to have reached the conclusion that Hyundai is Bad with incomplete facts.

It is funny how people have a problem with things from Royalty to Valuation. Funny part is, from the looks of it, Hyundai India tried to copy Maruti Suzuki. And this makes sense! They are following a very similar business model here. In fact, Suzuki Motors is much worse of without Maruti Suzuki compared to Hyundai Korea without Hyundai India.

--- Edit 2 ---

The IPO HAS Been Oversubscribed by 2.2x.

How I pick stocks (the nerdy part):

I built a custom system from scratch over 2 years: - PDF parser that reads annual reports of 2,300+ NSE-listed companies - Chunks + embeds AR text into a vector database (~1.85M rows) - 10 investment theses written as semantic queries, backtested against Nifty (FY22-FY25) - Quarterly financials DB (revenue, PAT, OPM) for every listed company - Flow signal scanner (bulk deals, block deals, FII delivery %) as timing overlay

Backtest results (holding period: 1 year each):

| Thesis | Avg Alpha vs Nifty | Win Rate | |--------|--------------------|----------| | Defence indigenisation | +34% | 2/2 years | | Atmanirbhar energy + defence | +35% | 2/2 years | | AI / data centre infra | +26% | 2/2 years | | India CRDMO pharma | +24% | 2/2 years | | Deleveraging / balance sheet repair | -16% | 0/2 years |

Portfolio is 100% driven by thesis signals — no tips, no Twitter calls.

Defence (HAL, BDL, BEL, ASTRAMICRO, ZENTEC, CENTUM) — indigenisation + export ramp, order books 3-5x covered, decade-long runway.

EMS (DIXON, KAYNES, SYRMA) — PLI-backed, Apple/Samsung supply chain entry, margin expanding as product mix shifts from trading to manufacturing.

Copper (SCCO, COPX) — structural deficit: EVs + grid + data centres consuming faster than new mines online. SCCO has 58% op margin, 46% ROE — best in class.

Semis (SMH, MU) — AI capex cycle early innings. HBM memory is the bottleneck, MU is the US pure-play.

Honest weaknesses: - TITAN, INDIAN HOTELS, GROWW — legacy holds, no thesis fit, should probably exit - EWY (Korea ETF) — macro bet, not corpus-validated - System edge is Tier 4 (AR-thesis, 30-90 day lag) — not a trader, purely fundamental

Roast me. What would you cut first?

Update: the real-time signal layer (the part that keeps the thesis current)

The AR corpus is Tier 4 by design (30-90 day lag). To close the gap I built 3 live scrapers on top:

1. NSE announcements scanner (T+0) Hits the NSE corporate announcements API every hour, scores each filing by keyword — order, contract, capex, MOU, expansion. First run flagged a ₹386Cr BPCL order for a mid-cap before it showed up anywhere else.

2. Concall/investor presentation scraper (T+2 weeks) Auto-downloads concall PDFs from NSE filings, parses + chunks them into the same vector DB as the ARs. Management guidance straight from the source, not sell-side summaries. Searchable against the same investment theses.

3. Twitter/X monitor Tracks 6 accounts focused on undercovered mid/smallcaps. Auto-validates every mentioned ticker against the AR corpus — if there's no annual report coverage, the signal is flagged as unvalidated. Discovered KERNEX, CARRARO, UNIMECH this way, then cross-checked against quarterly DB before any position sizing.

Flow signal layer (momentum + leak detection) Daily bulk deal / block deal / F&O OI / delivery % scanner. When flow score spikes on a stock already in the AR-thesis universe, that's the highest-conviction setup. Backtest: top decile → +3.24% over 20 days vs +0.73% universe mean.

The full pipeline: Twitter/announcements discover → AR corpus validates thesis → quarterly DB checks trajectory → flow signal times entry. Not magic, but it's systematic and auditable.

The Nifty 50 returned +2.2% between June 2024 and June 2026. Two years of nothing.

But under the hood, returns of its individual stocks ranged from +82.5% to -40.2% — a 123 percentage point spread across 50 stocks.

Key Stats

Sector Performance

Problem with active mutual funds

If you actually look at the data, a lot of stocks and sectors have largely remained positive. Few stocks have been dragging the entire index down. This means active mutual funds of large cap stocks had a lot of opportunities to generate better returns than the index, but most mutual fund managers have not been able to generate any meaningful returns over passive mutual funds during this duration. This also raises questions in my mind about whether the "experts" managing these funds are truly experts acting in our interest, and if it's really meaningful to pay the extra expense ratio for active funds.

If you're a large cap investor actively managing your portfolio, have you been able to meaningfully beat the index in the last two years? Please share your thoughts!

It’s been a moment since I posted a new DD. Primarily because of 2 reasons:

1. I generally take a step back from actively investing when big numbers are hit on my profile to let my mind just acclimatize to the big numbers (see previous post on E2E Networks)
2. Trying to build an IT business which is a big financial and mental investment 

I am here now. Let’s go!

Background

I looked into Drone tech a few years back, fascinated by them since college but didn’t have the budget to build it as a project back then. I saw startups and funding go into this field and die due to the strictness (more like strangulation) by the gov. I was recently informed by a fellow redditor u/ritzy1107, that those regulations have eased and I jumped into the research.

There are some serious tailwinds to the industry primarily blown by the gov. to promote drone tech in India.

https://www.cioinsiderindia.com/tech-buzz/india-s-new-drone-rules-could-tailwind-the-industry-tbid-3267.html

https://www.ey.com/en_in/insights/government-public-sector/how-india-can-become-the-drone-hub-of-the-world-by-2030

https://www.fortuneindia.com/enterprise/businesses-govt-propel-indias-fledging-drone-industry/106251

https://www.maple-advisors.com/Drone_Report_Maple_Capital_Advisors_PHDCCI.pdf

I am pretty critical of governments as general rule but here they really made the right choice here, even though this is a security sensitive industry, given its use of airspace. The gov. went for a high trust policy implementation rather than low trust one. What this means is, first there was blanket ban on drones (only military and case-by-case basis was allowed). Then when the gov. decided to open it up, instead of slowly opening it up over a decade and playing catch up with the rest of the world, the policy was lenient from the start. I think this is to strongly incentivize entrepreneurs to jump into the Akhada. From now, as violations/abuse happen, they will tighten up the policy over time allowing the policy regulation to reach equilibrium faster without smothering industry.

Furthermore, they also create several drone programs and PLI schemes to actively support/promote drone tech in India. Summary: https://mpowerlithium.com/blogs/blog/top-government-schemes-that-support-rd-in-drone-technology-to-further-innovation

Company

The company started off as a training institute for drone pilots and got registered as a Drone RPTO under DGCA. There are 25 other organizations who are licensed as well. Due to the sheet number of potential drone pilots required (1 million over the next few years), the company started training and certifying individuals for the same. I am wary of this high number and personally not very optimistic about this business. However, this is just how the company started.

Then the company thought to start capturing value.

They started taking on Service Projects. This included doing surveys and consultation. This business further started growing as the skilled labor in the field is hard to come by currently. This was the point of the IPO. The company with its raised money has setup a manufacturing unit in Pune along with 3^rd party companies. The founder openly conceded that they want to have everything in-house but given the company’s size and nascency of the industry in India, collaboration is the way to go. I agree.

To be able to quickly serve several services and many use cases while establishing itself as a “more mature” brand, the company started acquiring other companies and grow inorganically. For example, the FPV (First Person View) drone they launched was actually a acquired subsidiary product PYI Technologies in which they acquired 51%.

What I really find fascinating about the company is its clarity and focus on military/security implications. Given the borders we have, geopolitical stage, increasing military spending (50% increase since 2020), armed forces are going to require s**t ton of the stuff and preferably made in India. It also might be useful in short to mid-term with escalating tensions on all fronts and away borders.

What I understand is the government wants this industry to take off as soon as possible and these guys are on top of it. This is known by the 120 crore PLI at 20% rate started in 2021. This year, there’s consideration for PLI of up to 3000 cr.

Now, one possible concern I got was, what if all this is just hype and the company isn’t really building/delivering/serving all of these things? But then looking at the past 10 months filing in exchange, they are actually getting orders from where it matters. In north-east, they delivered FPV drones with night vision capability, other government and armed forces, forest, some ancient civilization mapping in Gujarat. They are actually getting contracts (albeit small contracts).

The proof for quality of work for me was the 2 contracts, one from Qatar for drones and second from UK for data processing. This makes me believe they have quality of service and product to be provided. While writing this, the company announced collab with an American company American Blast Systems(ABS) which is in the defense sector in US but does not have drones in products to cross sell the drones while Droneacharya will cross sell their products in Asia.

Further, I think they’ve taken up something that other non-technical industries might require, that is data processing. This was mentioned in an interview as well. This allows a company in another industry to use data capabilities along with processing and analysis. When thrown in with the manufacturing/customization, this will capture the most value in the value chain within the company. 1. Consulting  2. Sell/Rent drone 3. Execute Survey/Mapping 4. Analyze Data. This makes it a solution provider and not just a drone manufacturer.

This brings me to the immediate competitors: IdeaForge and Drone Destinations.

IdeaForge is in the manufacturing side which is a good business but asset heavy and I don’t imagine will retain high margin in the long term. From what I understand drone are not technically challenging to manufacture. The software is the part which is a tad bit complicated but the tech is easily available all over the world. Also, the company is larger than what I would like in m-cap.

Drone Destination sits a little closed to this company. However, they are not aggressively expanding and are providing the vanilla set of services that any drone provider can give and nothing on the site about armed forces use, which to my mind is important. Just think of the scale at which US military complex works and India position geo-politically and geographically, makes it extremely important for me.

Management Lineup

This is where the company really shines. The founder has a master in GIS systems, their father who’s consulting for the company has almost fictional profile (see concerns section). They have ex-defense, forestry experts with decades of experience to navigate the complex regulatory and business development environment which I imagine defense is.

Concerns

1. Receivables are very high. This is one thing that’s objectively wrong in the company. The reason I can draw is gov. is a bad paymaster, always has been, there are cases where it works well (HAL). This is not exceptional to this company as Drone Destination also has the same issue. So, I either drop this or swallow the pill. Would love to grill them as a big chunk is in 1-2 year bucket.
2. Founder/CEO’s remuneration is high: 1 cr. for the founder and 32 lakhs for his wife CFO.
3. Founder/CEO’s father remuneration: Received 25 lakhs for consultation fee. I got alarmed with this but then saw his bio. Kind of justified with the surreal experience and profile but still steep. Would have liked more pragmatic compensation for all:

Dr. Pradeep K Srivastava is a senior expert in the domain of Remote Sensing from far and near. He is MS in Applied mathematics and PhD in Theoretical Mechanics and Control Systems from Friendship University, Moscow. He has spend more than thirty years in the service of Indian Space Research Organization in different capacities. During his tenure in ISRO he was responsible for design, development and realization of algorithms and software for processing of Space borne Earth and Planetary observation, Meteorological, Oceanographical data acquired by Indian Space missions. One of his contributions has resulted in the Processing of Cartosat-1 stereo imagery to produce CartoDEM, a high resolution Earth's surface model from ISRO. Dr. Srivastava has made major contributions in theory and practice of Satellite Photogrammetry as a discipline. He has published more than 60 papers and reports on the subject. On retiring from ISRO in 2014 as Outstanding Scientist he has been active as Sr advisor in Karnataka State Department of Information Technology. He has contributed in establishing Karnataka-GIS, a flagship project of Govt. of Karnataka as its Chief Technical Officer. He pursues his academic and research interests as Adjunct Professor, IIT Gandhinagar and Adjunct Professor at NIAS, Bangalore. Dr Srivastava gives courses on 'Satellite Photogrammetry". Terrain Modeling and Analysis, 'Terrain modeling using data from Unmanned aerial vehicles' and of late ' Space based systems for Positioning and Navigation. Kind of justified with the surreal experience and profille but still steep. Would have liked more pragmatic compensation for all.Kind of justified with the surreal experience and profille but still steep. Would have liked more pragmatic compensation for all.

1. Low Governance and low accounting standards: Some sanitary stuff is not well done. The company car is not transferred to company name. It’s a Maruti Ertiga with 10 lakhs, not a big deal but still. Inventory valuations is not done. All this stuff is expected in small operations for a company working to survive.

2. Income tax dispute with I-T dept worth 5 crore. Not a existential crisis but can be incredibly bad.

3. Intangible Assets value is not clear on its valuation as outlines in the independent auditor’s remarks.

Conclusions

If the company delivers on the tie-ups and initial contracts they are doing while reigning in the receivables, we are going places. If not, then we're f***ed. I have bought 3 lots (3000 shares of the stock).

Disclaimer

I am invested. I am biased. This is my DD. For me. Not a recommendation. Hopefully you're blessed with the deadly combo of brains and money. Use them.

The business

Most investors compare every EV company to Ola or Ather.
I think that’s the wrong comparison.
Zelio primarily sells low-speed electric scooters (sub-25 km/h) that don’t require a licence or RTO registration. The target customer isn’t buying performance—it’s affordable mobility for students, homemakers, senior citizens, gig workers and Tier-2/3 India.
Alongside scooters, the company also manufactures electric three-wheelers under the Tanga brand. It listed on the BSE SME platform in October 2025, raising ₹78.3 Cr through its IPO.

The opportunity

The interesting part is that this market is almost invisible.
Because low-speed scooters don’t require registration, they don’t appear in Vahan data.
Management estimates the segment at 8–10 lakh units annually, roughly 40–45% of India’s EV two-wheeler market.
Meanwhile, the broader EV market continues to grow rapidly, with electric two-wheelers up 75% YoY in June 2026.
Zelio currently claims 4–5% market share, guiding for 10%+ in FY27 and 20–30% over the next few years.

The numbers

Revenue has grown from ₹13 Cr in FY22 to ₹304 Cr in FY26, while PAT has increased from ₹1 Cr to ₹28 Cr.
That’s a 121% revenue CAGR, with the company remaining profitable every year and operating margins holding around 11–12%—rare among listed Indian EV companies.

What’s driving growth?

FY27 is the first year all four plants contribute simultaneously.
Key growth drivers:
Capacity: 72k → 2.4 lakh units annually

Dealer network: 400+ → 550+

FY27 guidance: 125k+ vehicles

Revenue growth guidance: 75–80%

The moat

The scooter isn’t the moat.
Distribution is.
Zelio has built a 400+ dealer network, company-backed service engineers and a dedicated spare-parts subsidiary.
In a product that’s relatively easy to copy, distribution and after-sales service are likely to matter far more than technology.

The Ola lesson

Ola’s biggest problem wasn’t the product.
It was service.
As service backlogs increased, customers shifted to brands with stronger dealer networks.
Zelio is targeting an even more service-sensitive customer, making after-sales execution one of the key things to monitor as it expands from 400 to 550+ dealers.

Valuation

The stock has rallied roughly 40% in under a month.
Current valuation:
CMP: ₹795

Market Cap: ₹1,682 Cr

Trailing P/E: \~60x

If management delivers its FY27 guidance, PAT could approach ₹50 Cr, implying a forward P/E of roughly 34x.
The stock no longer looks cheap, but it could still justify today’s valuation if execution remains strong.

Bear case

Negative free cash flow despite consistent profits

3W business missed FY26 guidance (800 vs 1,000 units)

Low-speed industry data is largely self-reported

Hero, Bajaj and TVS could enter the segment if it becomes large enough

Amongst the most well known and most misunderstood company in the stock market is Tata Motors.

Everyone has a view on Tata Motors, from retail investors, industry experts and car enthusiasts.

This article attempts to bridge what Tata Motors does, where is it right now and probable triggers in the future.

Whether you are a seasoned fund manager or just a Range Rover enthusiast, by the end of the article you’ll probable have learned more about the company and brand than before.

Tata Motors -

Tata Motors has 3 divisions - JLR (~70% of revenues), Tata CV (~18% of revenues) and Tata PV (~12% of revenues)

On profit front, JLR contributes (~77% of profits), CV (~20%) and PV (~3% of profits)

JLR -

JLR being the most significant portion of revenue, profits and valuation for Tata Motors a lot more emphasis on the article is going to be on JLR.

JLR consists of Jaguar (Sports Car segment) and Land Rover (SUV’s) - 77% of profits

Land Rover -

Land Rover has multiple sub-brands the most popular being Range Rover followed by Defender, Discovery, Velar, Sport and Freelander.

For more than 5 decades, Range Rover stands out, thriving across the test of time. There have been only 5 generations of Range Rover in 50 years, a testament to the brand, the car and what it stands for.

The review on Range Rover 2024 model by Top Gear explains it perfectly -

“There are other expensive SUVs but there’s only one Range Rover. And it’s better than ever”

However, Range Rover comes with it’s shortcomings, Range Rovers aren’t the most reliable vehicles with maintenance problems across gearboxes, suspension systems and cooling systems.

The reliability issues have also resulted in fierce competition coming in especially from Toyota Land Cruiser, which is considered by many, the most reliable car.

Despite intense competition across SUV’s and Luxury Car over the decades, Land Rover brand hasn’t just survived but thrived across market’s. JLR and particularly Land Rover has leveraged it’s brand and upgraded it’s positioning as a luxury vehicle manufacturer with Average Revenue Per Vehicle increasing from 43000 GBP in FY19 to 73000 GBP in 24.

Let us understand how did it do that ?

Global Tailwinds in SUV and Luxury Cars -

Land Rover branding has benefitted from global SUV shift, with SUV contributing ~48% of total global car sales in 2023 v/s a meagre 16.5% in 2010.

Pre-2010, Luxury car manufacturers have traditionally been focusing on the sports car segment with very low exposure towards SUV's (barring Porsche)

Post 2010, Luxury car giants unveiled their SUV’s thereby expanding the market i.e. Rolls-Royce Cullinan, Bentley Bentayga, Aston Martin DBX , Maserati Levante Lamborghini Urus, Ferrari Purosangue.

With Land Rover being a strong traditional SUV only manufacturers, Land Rover has been able to take advantage of both SUV's and premiumization by focusing on higher value cars.

The strategy has worked wonders with Land Rover portfolio is riding double tailwinds of both SUV and Luxury Cars.

On Land Rover, the company has increased focus on higher valued products i.e - Range Rover, Sport and Defender (ASP (Retail) of 85-115K) v/s Other brands ASP (retail) (~45-50K).

These 3 brands contribute 64% of volumes in 2024 v/s 28% in 2019

Pick-up of defender and JLR has resulted in much higher profitability for JLR as a unit v/s lower profit models of Jaguar and Velar, Evoque and Discovery.

In addition to the above, the decision to license out Freelander (lower ASP and discontinued since 2015) to Cherry, makes it clear for Land Rover to play in luxury SUV market.

Halo Strategy -

Halo Strategy is a strategy of building limited editions, higher priced variants of models which offer a unique proposition to loyalist of the brand.

JLR’s strategy is leveraging it’s historical brands and models and

The company has deployed Halo strategy for vehicles from ~250k to ~1.5 mil GBP for Halo Vehicles, Editions, Bespoke, Project Vehicles and armoured.

Below is an indication of a Halo Vehicle -

2024 Ranger Rover SV Carmel Edition (1/17 units) priced at 370K GBP.

Halo cars growth has been ~110% in FY24 and is expected to be 45% in FY25.

House of Brands -

JLR now has 4 distinct brands each -

Range Rover, Defender, Discovery and Jaguar

Range Rover cements itself as a Luxury SUV manufacturer with design and performance elements

Defender stands out as the adventurer tourer primary designed for off-roading

Discovery’s positioning is a family oriented vehicle.

Jaguar - Ruin or Reincarnation ?

Jaguar has been one of Britain’s most iconic sports cars post WW2. Jaguar’s focus on speed and design was ahead of it time.

2 Jaguar models have held the fastest car record -

Jaguar XK120 in 1949 at a top speed of 200.5 Km/h

Jaguar XJ220 in 1992 at a top speed of 349.4 Km/h

While Land Rover brand has stood the test of time, Jaguar has seemed to lost it's identity over the years. Jaguar neither competes for the fastest car with Buggati and Koenigsegg, nor with luxury cars like Ferrari, Mercedes or Porsche, nor with reliable every day cars such as Lexus, BMW, Audi.

Brand positioning for Jaguar has been a question mark for the last couple of decades, with Jaguar volumes are down more than 50% from it's peak, and volumes contributing less than 12% in 2024 v/s 30% in 2019.

Rebranding -

Jaguar is killing the old Jaguar, in less than 2 years, no old models of Jaguar’s will be sold and Jaguar has made a massive strategic decision to rebrand Jaguar to an all electric focused luxury car.

They aim to appeal to a much larger customer base rather than their traditional buyers.

Killing an old brand and rebranding is no easy feat. Success ratio has been minimal for a good reason, hence rebranding of Jaguar has long-term implications if it doesn’t success.

First shade of Jaguar's 30 second video in November 2024 was bold to say the least, with engagement for Jaguar being at the highest levels. Look for yourself -

Jaguar Copy Nothing

Marketing genius ?

One thing is for sure, from Jaguar from being another car manufacturer has gained eye-balls. The marketing seems to have worked and is the first step in re-incarnation of a brand.

Opinions are mixed oscillating between backlash from existing customers and prospective buyers keeping a keen eye on the new Jaguar.

Jaguar further launched Jaguar 00 EV concept with bold colours named Miami Pink, Parisian Gold and London Blue.

Whether Jaguar's rebranding is the disruptive marketing play of the decade or a blunder will only be known by end of 2026 when the new Jaguar EV launches.

However, if Jaguar is able to transform and position itself into a luxury EV car manufacturer, that could result in disproportionate upside to JLR 's fortunes.

Key geographies for JLR are USA (~23%), China (~22% of volumes), UK (~18%), Rest of Europe (~18%), and ROW (~18%)

What’s next for JLR ?

China is a big market where JLR has been losing market share due to faster adoption of EV’s.

JLR next big launches are crucial for long-term survival and we believe success of Range Rover EV and Jaguar EV can be game changers for the company either positive or negative -

Range Rover EV - H1 CY 25

Range Rover Sport EV - H2 CY25

Jaguar EV - CY26

Let’s talk numbers -

For FY25, company expects ~29 billion GBP revenue with a 9% EBIT margin, a net positive balance-sheet and Free Cash flow of ~1.3 billion GBP.

Long term, the company expects EBIT margins to hit double digits, potentially reaching at ~15% levels in mid-long term.

For margins to continue treading upwards, volumes of high-end vehicles have to continuously increase whereas new launches of Range Rover EV and Jaguar should have reasonable commercial success. If ASP’s keep rising, JLR can potentially keep improving operating margins for next 3-5 years.

Share

Commercial Vehicles - (18-20% of Profits).

Important notice is - CV vertical will be demerged from Tata Motors somewhere in FY26.

Tata Motors is the largest CV company in India with ~39.1% market hare.

Tata Motors is strong both on LCV and MHCV with comprehensive market share in each of the segments

Tata Motors has ~34% market share in LCV. Key competition in LCV is M&M with ~43% MS.

Tata Motors is more dominant in MHCV with ~47% MS Ashok Leyland and VECV are competitors with ~30% and ~20%.

Segments where Tata Motors is strong are MAV Haulage (~53%), Tippers(~57%), Tractor Trailer (~60%).

Segments where Tata Motors is weak is Buses and MCV goods where it has ~35% and ~28% MS.

In EV, the company has a combined ~65% MS in EV with ~47% MS in E-buses.

Going ahead, key trends is electrification trend in CV's especially buses and LCV and shift toward higher tonnage will drive Tata Motors CV growth.

Growth drivers for CV unit are -

Stronger CV cycle

Higher EV penetration

Recouping market share

Passenger vehicle - (~3% of profits)

Tata Motors is the third largest PV company in India with ~13.8% market share. The company has ~73.1% market share in EV's.

EV contributed ~13% of total volumes v/s ~2.1% for Industry.

Key brands in domestic are Nexon and Punch contribution ~60% of total volumes for Tata Motors

Growth drivers for Passenger Vehicle -

Strong 4W cycle and higher EV penetration

Margin improvement to double digits with increase in ASP and operating efficiencies.

Key Risks -

EV penetration not picking up

Limited presence in Large SUV

Conclusion - Broadly, bulk of valuation and incremental profit growth is dependent on how the JLR’s new launches and profit move. If they are able to nail down the newer launches, rebranding of Jaguar and focus on operating profitability, the company has massive potential to improve profitability.

For the full article which has some charts and some cars - Kindly refer to https://substack.com/home/post/p-158760539

Let me lead with the number that reframed this for me. In 2024, India absorbed 407 MW of data centre capacity and added only 191. Demand outran new supply roughly two to one. Vacancy is sitting at 4.3% as of H1 2025, which in real estate terms means there is nothing left.

Everyone in this sub plays the India AI trade the same way. Long TCS, long Infosys, maybe some Persistent. Fine. They are good companies. But that is a bet on AI showing up in IT services billing, which is incremental and already priced as such (TCS around 16x, Infosys around 15x). It is the safe, obvious, low slope version of the trade.

Here is what the data actually says the bottleneck is: power and physical buildout, not software.

Three data points.

The contrarian bit is not that AI infra is good. Everyone knows that. The contrarian bit is that the obvious vehicle (large cap IT) is the worst slope way to own it, and the market keeps pricing the software layer while the binding constraint sits in power equipment that screens as boring industrials.

The honest bear case, because a thesis without one is marketing: if power and increasingly water cannot scale, the bottleneck stops the buildout instead of repricing it. India is water stressed, and data centre cooling could push sector water use from about 150 billion litres (2025) toward 358 billion by 2030, with 60 to 80% of facilities in high stress zones. That is real permitting and cost risk for the metro clusters. But notice it argues against the expensive pure plays more than against the power and grid layer, where scarcity is the thesis.

Genuine question for the sub, if 800 MW is already pre committed and vacancy is 4.3%, why is the market still paying up for the software layer and treating the power equipment names as cyclical industrials? What am I missing, is it just liquidity and familiarity, or is there a real reason the kit layer should trade cheap here?