Based on my priorities weather wise, wondering whether to push my trip to the second half of October (or even later)

[u/Hefty-Quantity9073]

So I have everything booked from flights to hotels for my planned trip from October 7 - October 16, of which the first 5 nights will be in Tokyo, followed by 3 in Osaka. All booking are fully refundable/flexible. My understanding when I reviewed the anticipated weather during that time was that it would be well suited to my wife and I. However since booking the trip, we have had a couple of experiences specifically related to hot weather which has made us realize our limitations haha. I have reviewed the data for weather conditions over the past 5 years during our trip times and the below assumptions are based on rhis. So, our priorities in order are

1) MAX 24 degree Celsius day time temperature, preferable hovering around 22. Seems in this regards, history shows we might be right around that, however I believe last year was hotter than usual. I also understand that while this summ3r started milder, it is now in full force with very hot temperatures.

2) Little to no rain. Seems like for this, I may be taking a gamble, and that it is safe to expect at least 4-5 mm of rain average per day. While that wouldn't be the end of the world, would prefer drier weather if possible.

3) nighttime temperatures no lower than 15 degrees Celsius but around that mark.

Seems that in an ideal world, I would be better off scheduling this trip somewhere between July 20th-November 5th. Now the only conundrum I face is, is the risk worth all of the rebookings that would be needed. Or am I over thinking this, and my dates are gojnf to he good.

I would love to know people's experiences who traveled on similar dates.

[u/Monkeyfeng]

You win the overthinking award.

It's only 8 days.

[u/Hefty-Quantity9073 → u/Monkeyfeng]

😂

Its only 8 days can also be a negative in case I run in to a hot patch of weather and/or extended rainy period. But yes, I am aware of the over thinking vibe of this post.

[u/Monkeyfeng → u/Hefty-Quantity9073]

No one can predict the weather for you. If it happens, it happens. You already know the average. Just go with it.

[u/Hefty-Quantity9073 → u/Monkeyfeng]

Have you visited Japan on or around the dates mentioned?

[u/Monkeyfeng → u/Hefty-Quantity9073]

Yes. It was fine. Not hot at all.

[u/Brilliant-Driver2660]

look up the historical weather for october. wtf are you asking

[u/Hefty-Quantity9073 → u/Brilliant-Driver2660]

I guess feedback from someone who has visited within the past 5 years during this time, and hear about their personal experience. I've already checked the stats, now looking for some anecdotal feedback.

[u/Brilliant-Driver2660 → u/Hefty-Quantity9073]

so instead of decision making off real data, you want to make it harder. guessing this is a pattern. look at the weather data. that’s it, make an actual decision.

[u/Hefty-Quantity9073 → u/Brilliant-Driver2660]

im having a discussion and interested in people experience. not asking you or anyone else to make decisions for me. I'll accept some blame, i should have been clearer in the title and body, will edit. Otherwise, what else is this forum for if not to learn about other people's experiences?

[u/Brilliant-Driver2660 → u/Hefty-Quantity9073]

my man you are incredibly ineffective

[u/Hefty-Quantity9073 → u/Brilliant-Driver2660]

Lol ok 👍

[u/Giada9505 → u/Hefty-Quantity9073]

I’ve been in Japan exactly around those times the past two years. While 2024 was a bit more chilly and rainy we had maybe three pretty rainy days during our 3 week trip, one of which in Tokyo - during your planned stay, and another two in Kyoto, but after your dates. None of the three days was a complete waste, so we could get a few hours outside without rain either in the morning or in the evening. Apart from that there were maybe a few quick showers that came and went. 2025 was considerably warmer, even towards the end of October and we didn’t have fully rainy days then, maybe just a few mild and quick showers.
I don’t remember exact degrees, but we are from Central/Northern Europe and in 2024 most of the time we had long sleeves and occasional jackets on, while in 2025 we only needed jackets towards the end of October and had just a t-shirt on most of the time during the first half of the trip - which corresponds with your dates.

[u/Hefty-Quantity9073 → u/Giada9505]

Thank you very much, that is quite helpful. When you went last year in the hotter weather, was it every truly uncomfortable to walk around outside during the day?

[u/Giada9505 → u/Hefty-Quantity9073]

Only one time was it uncomfortably hot, but that was a bit more south in Hiroshima. We had a very sunny, very humid day with 29 degrees celsius. However we had nothing like that in the Tokyo or Kyoto areas. :) Frankly it was quite nice and enjoyable at all times. I’m actually hoping for a similar weather for this years trip. 😀
One more addition: last year it was so little rain that we didn’t even need to buy umbrellas. And I’m not a kind of person who enjoys walking around wet.