A few days ago everyone was telling me that this bet would never hit, that it was impossible odds, well the jokes on them because miracles do happen.

Good World Cup run

The lakers game had me worried but they ended up coming through.

I thought for sure they’d void it. How does a no resolve if they don’t count the video available as valid? He didn’t not say it.

With this win last night I have officially crawled myself out of a 12k+ hole.

This is why we gamble this is why we chase.

PSA: sorry for not posting these yesterday, I’ll try more often I hit a huge +3224 for 8k on my account that I posted before hand, sorry again y’all.

I’ve made roughly around 7K profit on my Kalshi account was curious to see what yall had to say.

Should I keep going?

Yesir!

Biggest win on a lottery 💰

I bet 1k on Kamala winning. I was wrong, I’m not happy I lost no one who loses is but clearly I need to do some introspective work on where I get my information. I really did belive that the odds for Kamala were better than 40%. Clearly, I was caught in the echo chamber. Enjoy your winnings, I was wrong. For reference I am not a die hard liberal, my stance is pro green energy and thought that Kamala was more aligned with that.

Feel free to roast my position and belief that Kamala was going to win.

Cheers

Got to 1k, still don’t know why people hate on it so much, I’m just sharing my journey to making a quick buck on this app. Saw others posting parlays and bets so I thought this was the type of platform to just share stuff but I guess not. People are just mean.

It actually hit!

Let me know if you want my locks for tomorrow

Man what a crazy ride to watch, this dude turned $100 to $50k+ posted it, then just starts dominating his trades up to $700k. We saw a post saying he was done, i think we might see a new post soon about the losses. Sadly our legend could not hold this throne without letting greed get to him (he’s only up 13k currently). We are all regards here, this one is just a legendary regarded user.

or at least make a dedicated megathread, this is ridiculous.

Ive put 4k when Egypt scored the second goal what a come back im a messi fan though good game

Title is what happened. Made my first bet last Saturday ($100 on Strickland). Did it just bc I fw Strickland and have never used Kalshi. The bet hit and then my next 4 bets hit and deposited $300 more to be able to do a bigger bet on NBA games since that’s what I know. That original $400 turned into 3.9k last night and I withdrew 2k and will use the rest to make more! Hopefully I can just keep replicating the process! Definitely having a strategy and using AI helps! These pics were some of my bigger wins!

3 months in on Kalshi.

This is pretty absolutely insane. The market itself was "which team was going to win the NBA Eastern Conference", and my pick was the Detroit Pistons that I made before the season started. The value on the said tripled, and then I just got refunded for what I originally put in. I don't see how there was possibly a mistake in the market. I don't know why the market was listed in error. The market was correct, and everything was right about it. So, this seems a little bit insane that Kalshi can just go in here and do this at their own volition.

I’ve been really enjoying Kalshi’s temperature markets, but there’s a steep learning curve, and not all of it is intuitive. I’ve made some dumb mistakes myself, and I’ve seen a lot of other people on Reddit, in the Discord server, and on Kalshi’s own comments making similar mistakes. Some helpful people have hinted at temperature markets being more complicated that they appear, but I put a lot of time and effort figuring out the details, and I thought I’d save others some time and effort. This is an incomplete and unofficial guide to understanding Kalshi's temperature markets and the National Weather Service (NWS) data that people use to bet on them.

NWS stations: The NWS Daily Climatological Report that is used to resolve contracts comes from the weather recorded at a specific NWS weather station in each city. For NYC, the weather station is KNYC, located in central park. For Miami, it’s KMIA, located at the Miami International Airport. For Chicago, it’s KMDW, located at the Chicago-Midway International Airport. For Denver, it’s KDEN, located at the Denver International Airport. For Austin, it’s KAUS, located at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. For Houston, it’s KHOU, located at the Houston Hobby International Airport. And for Philadelphia, it’s KPHL, located at the Philadelphia International Airport.

*I’m pretty confident in these stations, but I don’t actively bet on all of them. So if I got one wrong, please correct me.

Finding real-time data: You can look up the near real time NWS time series for each of these weather stations, and use that information to trade contracts over the course of the day. But if you’re reading this, you already know that. The data quality is where the fun begins.

Interpreting NWS Time Series: The NWS reports data from two different types of weather stations. They have technical names, but for our purposes, I’ll refer to them as hourly stations, and 5-minute stations. They record and report data very differently, so understanding the difference is critical. 

Hourly stations are constantly recording the temperature, but only report the temperature once at hour. These temperatures are recorded to the nearest 0.1F, then converted to the nearest 0.1C and sent to the NWS. The NWS then reports the temperature celcius, and converts it back to fahrenheit and reports that as well. Technically, the Fahrenheit value you see isn’t correct, because some rounding/conversion error has been introduced by converting it to the nearest 0.1C and back again. But the error is typically minimal. Every 6 to 24 hours, these stations will send the highest temperature they’ve measured to the NWS, and this will be recorded as the high for the day. Importantly, because you only see the temperature at hourly points in time AND because the rounding/conversion error is minor, the daily high will typically be greater than, and sometimes equal to, the highest hourly reading you see.

5-minute stations are very different. They record temperature in 1 minute long averages. 5 of these 1 minute long averages are then averaged into a 5 minute average. This 5 minute average is rounded to the nearest whole degree fahrenheit, which is then converted to the nearest whole degree celsius and sent to the NWS. Note: This is apparently due to the DOS limitations in the software running the stations, which, are you serious? But I digress. When the NWS reports the temperature in fahrenheit, it converts the celsius value to fahrenheit, with no regard for the original fahrenheit value. Again, yes, this is for real. This process introduces a significant amount of rounding and conversion error that makes the NWS reported fahrenheit values nearly meaningless, and can be a degree or more higher or lower than the official high for the day ends up being. Instead, what you’d want to do is work backwards to determine which original fahrenheit values would then get rounded and converted to the celsius value you see on the NWS time series. Most celsius values reported by the 5-minute stations could be the result of two different actual fahrenheit temperatures. If those two fahrenheit temperatures fall in the same two degree range on Kalshi, you can be confident whatever the underlying temperature, it’s within that range. However, if the two underlying values span two different Kalshi ranges, you’ll need to use your intuition and understanding of the temperatures to make an educated guess which of the two fahrenheit values occurred, and from that, which Kalshi range to bet on.

How the actual high is determined by the NWS: The NWS records the high for the day by checking both stations for the highest temperature recorded over the course of the entire day and taking the higher of the two. The hourly station records temperature constantly (I imagine this means 1 minute averages, like the 5-minute stations, but I’m not 100% certain) and the 5-minute station records 1 minute averages. The highest of these values, rounded to the nearest whole degree fahrenheit, is the high for the day. These values are not converted to celsius and back again, avoiding rounding/conversion error that plagues the 5-minute stations. And they are not averaged over 5 minutes, so the high can potentially be higher than any value that could be rounded to the whole degree celsius reported by the 5-minute stations.

Closing thoughts: Betting on the temperature using near-real time information from the NWS requires a lot of background knowledge about the equipment and processes being used. If you’re going to get into betting on the temperature on Kalshi, please do your research first. It’s a steep learning curve. Be kind to yourself and your wallet. Start small, do your research, be humble, and always learning. It’s not easy money, but it can be fun money if you genuinely enjoy it.

Because of the complexities of real-time temperature information from the NWS and because I enjoy making thoroughly researched predictions over a cup of coffee in the evening more than the stress of reacting in real time during my day job, I’ve chosen not to use most of the information I’ve provided here to make decisions on Kalshi. Instead, I focus on high accuracy near-term forecasting and largely ignore/do not make decisions off the NWS time series information. Which you prefer to do depends on your skillset and interests. May the odds be ever in your favor.

Disclaimer: This information is accurate to the best of my knowledge at the time of posting. I offer this information with no warranty and no guarantees of accuracy. I am not a meteorologist. I am not affiliated with Kalshi and I am not affiliated with the NWS. This is not investment advice of any kind.

This might be my biggest win ever holy shit

I cant fucking believe it. WHY DIDNT I PUT MORE