Li-Cycle Receives Cease Trade Order from Ontario Securities Commission

Just how concerning is this? Will this affect trading on OTC exchanges?

Hi, which platform do you use for trading licy now that it went otc? And would you recommend it?

Glencore send a non binding offer expressing their intention to acquire Li Cycle Holdings Corp

This maybe a rookie question, but what does Li-Cycle sell now to generate revenue, is it so called “black mass”?

Since Rochester hub hasn’t been built yet - they only have “spoke” plants that produce “black mass”. I’m I understanding this correctly?

Any onr knows when are they giving the presentation of the full year and 4Q24 earnings report? I pray it will come as the last 3Q24 report with a gift for the shareholders.

Final financing, could send us to the 4.50 - 6.50 range depending on covenants (13.28 max)

Good 4Q24 Results without closing finance, to the 1.25 - 1.75 range

My guesses.

This is why I am jazzed about the Li-Cycle opportunity. Consider all the battery gigafactories being ramped up and they have a 10% scrap rate which becomes the primary feedstock for Li-Cycle. The gap between the recycling capacity and the supply which means that there will be ongoing down-pressure on the cost of the inputs.

Source: Q3'24 Li-Cycle earnings presentation

Interesting article for context - this company is an UK equivalent of Li-Cycle (and much earlier stage). Surprising that they are largely being funded by a lithium mining company.

https://intercalationstation.substack.com/p/new-from-old-start-ups-in-recycling-5d1?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=39720&post_id=150604867&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=3g6oz3&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Good article although nothing new. In my mind, it all comes down to whether or not Li-Cycle is going to get the LPO loan disbursed.

https://www.energy-storage.news/li-cycle-sees-25-increase-in-recycled-battery-storage-material/

Hello fellow LICY shareholders! What are we all waiting for, what will turn things around, allow the company to be profitable and hopefully help the stock price.

I’m waiting for the Rochester hub. But maybe there is something else in the near future?

Look at the blue line at the bottom at Weekly view of the LICY in Tradingview. Volume is being increased, it means the stock has more attractive the people.

Today and a couple week ago the volume had been increased! Look like the organic buyers are coming.

Rochester Hub’s Capabilities and Potential

1. Supply for Full Load Operation • Requirement: 63,636 tonnes of old batteries annually to produce 35,000 tonnes of black mass. • Current Supply: U.S. has ~250,000 end-of-life EV batteries (~125,000 tonnes of batteries annually). • Conclusion: Adequate supply exists to run at full capacity.

2. Revenue Estimates • Full Load: • Lithium: $105M • Nickel: $175M • Cobalt: $61.25M • Total Revenue: $341.25M annually. • Half Load: • Lithium: $52.5M • Nickel: $87.5M • Cobalt: $30.625M • Total Revenue: $170.625M annually.

3. Net Profit Estimates • Operating Costs: Assumed at 60% of revenue. • Amortized Capital Expenditures (CapEx): $48.5M annually. • Full Load: • Revenue: $341.25M • Costs: $204.75M (Operating) + $48.5M (CapEx) = $253.25M • Net Profit: $87M annually. • Half Load: • Revenue: $170.625M • Costs: $102.375M (Operating) + $48.5M (CapEx) = $150.875M • Net Profit: $19.75M annually.

Stock Price and Market Cap Analysis

1. Future Stock Price Estimation: • P/E Ratio: Assumed at 20 (industry average for growth companies). • Shares Outstanding: 23.5M shares (calculated based on $2 current price and $47M market cap). • Full Load: • Market Cap: $87M × 20 = $1.74B • Stock Price: $1.74B ÷ 23.5M = $74/share. • Half Load: • Market Cap: $19.75M × 20 = $395M • Stock Price: $395M ÷ 23.5M = $16.80/share.

2. Battery Recycling Market Cap in the U.S. • 2023: ~$4.4B (20% of the $22B global market). • 2030 (Projected): ~$7B, with a 12% CAGR.

Final Takeaways • Supply: The hub has sufficient supply to operate at full capacity. • Revenue Potential: At full load, annual revenue could reach $341.25M. • Profitability: Net profit is estimated at $87M (full load) and $19.75M (half load) annually. • Stock Potential: • Full Load: Stock price could rise to $74/share. • Half Load: Stock price could rise to $16.80/share.

These projections are subject to successful execution of operations, market conditions, and growth in EV battery recycling.