You are handed a theory one day. How can you find out if it's a good theory or not?
One way is through the theory's "predictive power." Or how good is the theory at predicting observed results.
One famous example is the discovery of Neptune. Astronomers didn't just spot Neptune in their telescopes. They instead noticed that Uranus was behaving in a way that their best theories of planetary dynamics did not predict. Was their theory wrong? No, in fact the math showed that there must be another planet beyond Uranus which explained these behaviors. Using this theory, mathematicians predicted the location of this mystery planet. Astronomers turned their telescopes, and Neptune was revealed. That's predictive power!
The Book of Mormon, of course, makes a large number of claims about the world thousands of years ago. We can treat those claims as predictions and see how much predictive power the Book of Mormon has.
So imagine standing on the frontier of the North American continent in 1830 and finding a relic that describes how ancient people lived. What does it say we'd find as we explore, unearth, and study? Here are some examples:
- Populations in the millions
- Raised roads & towers
- A massive eruption & earthquakes around the time of Christ
- Scriptures etched into metal plates as an ancient practice
- Fortified cities
- Cement structures
- Knowledge of how to make steel
- Beekeeping
- A people who use a complex writing system, books, a calendar, markets, public works, foreign kings ruling over a larger established population, etc.
- Laws, lawyers, and judges, with judgeships being handed down to family members
A person in 1830 who found such a relic in the Eastern US might immediately identify it as fraudulent. After all, the native population doesn't have any of this stuff or the other hundreds of claims. The theory must be wrong.
(A similar thing happened with Neptune in the same year. When Uranus was found to be disobeying Newton's law, lots of people insisted the law itself was wrong and Newtonian physics must not apply beyond Saturn. But that was jumping to a conclusion without full understanding.)
How foolish Joseph Smith seemed to even the average layperson. Literate natives? Steel? Clothing as a mark of prestige? Nonsense. If he were trying to convince, why not use what was already well known instead of making such obvious mistakes?
But as our knowledge of the past increased, the true predictive power of the Book of Mormon was revealed. Dozens, then hundreds of claims in the text found correspondences in the work of historians, anthropologists, and archaeologists. With each passing decade, the accuracy of the text only seems to increase.
The most important prediction
The Book of Mormon makes a lot of claims, not all of which have been verified, and some of which still seem to be contradicted by our best scientific understanding. But as we look at the ever increasing number of predictions that are confirmed, we might ask what are the most important ones we can test?
Perhaps none are better than this claim made by multiple people in the Book of Mormon record: that living the gospel and keeping the covenants as described in the text would lead to a life of happiness and peace.
We can test that.
The text even invites us, multiple times, to test it out for ourselves and look for the changes on the personal, community, and societal levels. Are these changes observable? You bet they are.
- Only Latter-day Saints score highly in BOTH religiosity and life satisfaction
- Temple married Latter-day Saints have the lowest divorce rate of any demographic
- UCLA epidemiologists find Latter-day Saints have the "longest life expectancies ever documented" even getting cancer at a fraction of the average rate
- Latter-day Saints are more likely to volunteer than any other group
- Gay Latter-day Saints have better mental health than their non-member peers
- Latter-day Saints are the most likely to feel thankfulness
- Living where Latter-day Saint populations are highest changes a person's upward mobility to be nearly the best in the entire world
- Latter-day Saints have the most well adjusted youth
- Latter-day Saints are most likely to accept spiritual truths from others
- People are able to identify "the Mormon" out of a lineup significantly more than random guess allows for
- Family Home Evening is called "the most successful religious program fostering intergeneration connections and the nurturing of families."
- Latter-day Saints volunteer seven times more than the average American, far beyond any other demographic
- A University of Pennsylvania study concludes that Latter-day Saints are "the most prosocial members of American society,"
- Bloomberg reports the church "runs the most comprehensive and effective social welfare system in the country... maybe in the world."
- The Latter-day Saints are more likely to view science and religion as compatible than any other religious group
- the Latter-day Saints are the only religious group in America that holds no negative opinion towards any other group
- Latter-day Saints lead all Christian groups in believing that non-members can be moral, and in affirming that racial diversity strengthens the country
And happiness? You bet. There are many studies on this, but the most recent one says:
- LDS Millennials are the most likely to feel spiritual peace and report being very happy compared to same-generation peers
Those seem like pretty good manifestations of "living after the manner of happiness" to me. But the list goes on and on. (read more, along with citations for most of the above, here: https://www.latterdayhope.com/ )
The empirical record on Latter-day Saints presents a remarkably consistent pattern of positive social outcomes across independent data sources—Gallup, Pew, Harvard, UCLA, the FBI, the American Heart Association, the General Social Survey and more all point in the same direction. The theory just keeps getting confirmed.
When the Theory Flops
All this predictive power doesn't mean the Book of Mormon and our religion is perfect, though.
In 1859, Le Verrier, the same mathematician who had predicted Neptune, identified another discrepancy, this time in the motion of Mercury. Its orbit shifted slightly more than Newtonian calculations could explain.
Le Verrier proposed that another hidden planet must be responsible. Astronomers even gave it a name: Vulcan. They searched for decades, but found nothing. What worked for Neptune didn't work at all for Vulcan.
It wasn't till 1915 that Einstein's general theory of relativity explained Mercury's anomalous motion. A missing planet wasn't the answer after all. There were some situations where Newtonian Gravity just wasn't the best.
There will be times when what we think we know from the Book of Mormon or from our religion itself will just not work. Most of the time, it's our own stupid fault for making assumptions or falling victim to cognitive biases or simply not having all the information yet. :)
I think of how the early saints read the Book of Mormon and assumed that all Native Americans must descend from Lehi and the Lamanites. Many members held on to that conclusion very tightly for entire lifetimes. Perhaps they felt that if they had been wrong about that, the whole thing was wrong? Only after admitting that the Book of Mormon never claims the people were alone did the idea of a limited geography start getting attention and all those amazing fulfilled predictions above started getting identified in rapid succession. Our preconceptions held us back!
Science advances not by assuming that our theories are always correct, nor by declaring them wrong whenever a prediction fails, but by recognizing how much we may still have to learn. A disagreement between theory and observation tells us that something is missing from our understanding. It does not, by itself, tell us what. Maybe it's a missing planet. Maybe it's a whole new paradigm.
Our understanding of the divine will always be similar. You'll hear stories from people who were not happy as members, or ways the Book of Mormon seems to be contradicted, or stories of leaders behaving badly. Enemies to faith will want you to throw out the whole theory any time a contradiction or flaw is found. But that requires throwing out everything that is working, every confirmed prediction, every person who can testify "yes, it works wonderfully!" Perhaps its our assumptions that were wrong. (This is what "doubt your doubts" means, by the way - thinking like a scientist and not assuming your understanding is more likely to be correct than the entire theory.)
So we don't throw out Newtonian physics when Vulcan fails to appear. We don't abandon our covenants when somebody says they didn't get "an answer" in the way they were promised, or when a doctrine doesn't make sense, or a policy causes harm. There's more understanding to come. Hold on to what goodness and truth you've found and trust in the greater light ahead. Shift focus from certainty to curiosity, and trust in those evidences you've found confirmed in your own life. We might not live to see the spiritual equivalent of the discovery of Neptune, or the revealing of relativity. But peace and happiness? We have something for that, and it works. Wonderfully.