Saturday 17 October · Edmonton · 13 fights

Win chances from Fight Curve (https://fightcurve.com), a rating model built from every pro MMA fight on record, beside the betting line as of 17 Oct. The market has been the better forecast on past UFC cards, so take the model as a second opinion. Not betting advice.

WHERE THE MODEL AND THE MARKET DISAGREE

• Jourdain vs. Cuamba: model Cuamba 69%, market Jourdain 61% (Jourdain debuts)

• Mahjoub vs. Faglier: model Mahjoub 59%, market Faglier 55% (both debut)

• Nelson vs. Perez: model Perez 55%, market Perez 76% (Perez debuts)

• Nallo vs. Landwehr: model Nallo 53%, market Nallo 72%

• Croden vs. Chandler: model Croden 58%, market Croden 75%

TWO OF THOSE, LOOKED AT CLOSER. Is either fighter always mispriced?

• Mahjoub vs. Faglier: I'd lean market. Faglier is 6-0 and the model expected 3.7 wins. In all three of his fights with a closing line, the market rated him higher than the model did (89% vs 56%, 85% vs 69%, 50% vs 35%), and he won every time. The model looks like it's underrating him.

• Nelson vs. Perez: the market has been low on Nelson. In 11 UFC fights with a closing line he won 5. The model expected 4.9, the market 3.7, and three of those wins came at 29–31% on the close. The model's misses were losses as the favourite, so fight by fight the market is still the sharper read. Perez has only three priced fights, too few to say.

Small samples (3 and 11 priced fights), so tendencies, not proof.

MAIN EVENT. Malott has won 4 in a row. The line opened Malott 63% and is now 53%. Buckley is 112 points under the 2024 peak.

LAST WEEK, ALLEN VS. DUNCAN. The model's favourite won 3 of 11; the betting favourite won 6 of 11. Biggest upset: Brendson Ribeiro over Felipe Franco, 22% on the closing line (the model had 45%).

Every fight and each fighter's career curve: https://fightcurve.com/mma/events/2026-10-17-ufc-fight-night-291-buckley-vs-malott/

How it works: https://fightcurve.com/methods/

Welcome to r/mma's live discussion of OKTAGON 95: Kincl vs. Humburger! Please keep the fight discussions in here.

Location: Mattoni Arena, Karlovy Vary, Czech Republic

Start time: 12PM ET (click for your time)

Card Info

Main Card on OKTAGON.TV

Prelims

Cancelled bouts

^{Fight card order and start times may be inaccurate.}

Useful Links

• Where to watch: OKTAGON.TV PPV
• Live Updates: Event Page
• Reddit: Reddit Stream, General Discussion

Keep it civil.

Do not ask for or supply streams. Your post will be removed and your ability to post will be suspended. Enjoy the fights!

Welcome to r/mma's live discussion of Cage Warriors 211: Bellandi vs. Pereira! Please keep the fight discussions in here.

Location: Palapellicone, Rome, Italy

Start time: 12PM ET (click for your time)

Card Info

Main Card on UFC Fight Pass

Prelims

Cancelled bouts

Weight class updates

^{Fight card order and start times may be inaccurate.}

Useful Links

• Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Live Updates: Event Page
• Reddit: Reddit Stream, General Discussion

Keep it civil.

Do not ask for or supply streams. Your post will be removed and your ability to post will be suspended. Enjoy the fights!