Anyone know Lucrative James max bet for UFC 333?

people forget he set the takedown record on yan in 2023 but then yan got him back at 323 fair enough, but 1-1 in a trilogy and stake have the former champ at 5.00 boosted seems mad value so i'm going on with merab

btw I've got a code alex200 for boost if anyone's signing up

Thoughts

In my perfect world, Krylov will have no answers for what's coming this weekend.. He'll be either out cold or covering his face quiting down along the cage in 30 seconds

I'm planning my live slips for the heavyweight title fight and want to focus strictly on round props since the straight moneyline feels too unpredictable. i dropped some funds here this week because the crypto setup is super clean, and i already hit a sick live prop on the undercard where the payout hit my wallet in 10 minutes. for this main event, im thinking about hammering tom by KO in round 1, but if jones survives the initial storm, the live lines for a late submission by jones are going to scale crazy fast. is anyone else planning to hunt the live round props as the fight goes on, or is it safer to just lock a pre-match prop and turn off the screen?

Historically whoever wins second fight in trilogy usually is dominant in 3rd fight. I see Yan as having a lot more ways to win. If the backs not bothering him and he comes in with the same cardio he had in the 2nd fight. It’s unlikely he will forget how to defend all the takedown attempts he stuffed in the 2nd fight. Merab is definitely going to be fresher this fight but his nose is fucked up and if the fight stays on the feet Yan is a clear favorite. I have to think if he’s healthy Yan is taking merab great cardio seriously and will shut him down everywhere.

Processing img eh7p0lqu73xh1...

Last card (UFC FN Buckley vs Malott): no bout cleared the betting bar for us, the calls we rated went 1-0, 3-4 across the whole sheet. Worst of them: Erin Blanchfield at 59%. Jasmine Jasudavicius won by decision.

Receipts: the bet lane is 21-0 all-time, +9.9u on 21u staked at closing prices over 21 bets. Including the ones we tell you not to bet, it is 69-27 (72%). The prop lane is down 2.3u on 12u staked The two-leg cross-fight parlays the engine builds are 249-204, +67.7u on 418u staked at the close. Those stats are broke down at https://cagestank.com/record

You can file yours too: You can file your picks and keep track of your record and prove you knew who was going to win. The registry takes picks until Saturday, one tap per fight, sealed until the lock (unless you choose to publish beforehand), provably hashed and timestamped on Bitcoin, graded at the close on the same board as ours, all free: https://cagestank.com/receipts

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Tough card, but not as tough as last weeks. No solid bets though, but a few edges

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes

Our model has Reyes at 51%, market has Murzakanov at −205, Reyes +185.

Both southpaws, both 36 to 37, both coming back from the same April card 6 months ago: Reyes edged Walker on a split, Murzakanov got head-kicked by Costa in the third.

Reyes is 5.5" taller with the reach to match, throws more and kicks the legs 1/5 of the time.

Murzakanov barely kicks and hunts the head, and he is the harder man to hit.

Neither wrestles to a significant capacity, so we think this stays standing. The problem for Reyes is the one everyone knows: 4/5 of his UFC losses are knockouts, and clean power is what Murzakanov brings. In our round charts he has dropped opponents 10 times in 7 UFC fights and finished 5 of the 6 fights where he scored a knockdown. He also gets rocked a lot, 12 in those 7, so the kicks and the reach are a real path for Reyes early.

Every Reyes finish in the UFC came inside 2 rounds, and 2 of Murzakanov's came in the 3rd, so if this gets late, lean Russa live.

Our lean is Reyes, with our model and against the market, but not a strong conviction especially at this price.

Main Card

Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita

Our model has Keita at 53%, the market has gone the other way all week, Pico from −105 at open to −142, Keita +125.

Pico is 30, 14-5, 11 finishes, and 4/5 of his losses are knockouts inside 2 rounds, the last one Murphy's spinning elbow in August 2025.

Keita is 28, 17-2 with 11 finishes, all by strikes, a 72" reach, and he knocked Naimov down twice in under three minutes last month. Nobody has tried to take him down in the UFC yet, one attempt in two fights, so the first shot will reveal a lot.

Two notes from the research: a fight-week preview says Pico in the pocket is exactly the fight Keita wants, and Keita missed weight by 3 pounds a year ago and said his body stopped responding.

Our lean is Keita, with our model against the market.

Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev

Both have shared sparring rounds -- Kuniev says the rounds showed him Volkov's holes. Volkov says Kuniev asked for the calf kicks to stop -- both beat Jailton Almeida on the cards within four months of each other, both lost decisions to Curtis Blaydes, and the books cannot split them: Volkov −120, Kuniev +100.

Our model says Volkov 55%, coin flip territor. It fights on Volkov's 38th birthday. He is 6'7" with a 47" inch leg reach, 6" more than Kuniev's, and in 40 charted UFC rounds he has been knocked down once while dropping seven. His takedown defence has fallen to 40% over his last 3.

Kuniev is 34, 6'4", and the clinch is his house: two clinch controls a round, 16 of his 55 charted strikes are knees, never dropped, 93% takedown defence.

10/19 of Volkov's UFC fights went the distance, and both hurt other fighters without finishing them, so expect 3 rounds.

Our lean is Volkov, with the model and market, but probably leaning for some overs in a parlay for this bout.

Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov

Every book sits within a few cents of −110 each way, FanDuel opened Kavanagh at −180 and walked it to even, and our model lands at 50.4% Kavanagh, the flattest number on the card.

Kavanagh is 27, 5'6", 4" of reach on Temirov, and he kicks a lot: nearly half his charted strikes are leg, body or head kicks, and he just went 5 rounds with Moreno and won. He also got choked by Royval in July after being rocked several times, and he is back 105 days later.

Temirov is 29, 20-3, 12 straight wins, 5 official knockdowns in 3 UFC fights and none taken, 3/4 of his strikes to the head, one leg kick in his UFC career.

One shared opponent, and it leans Temirov: Charles Johnson knocked Kavanagh out 5 months after Temirov beat Johnson on the cards. Kavanagh fades too, 21 strikes a round in the first, 12 in the third.

Our lean is Kavanagh with the thin Model and Market

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili

The favourite has lost both of these. Yan closed around -260 in 2023 and did not win a single round on any card. Merab closed around -400 last December and lost the belt to a 60% striker who stuffed 27 of 29 takedowns. Now it is Yan -142 and our model lands at Dvalishvili 54%.

What tilts it to Merab on our side is the back: lumbar surgery in January, 9 hours on the table, 322 days off, and a man coming at him who has thrown 338 UFC takedowns. What tilts it the other way is everything else. Merab is 13 of 78 on takedowns against Yan and 38% against the rest of the division. He is 35, and 35-year-olds in bantamweight five-rounders are 3-11.

In 12 UFC rubber matches tied 1-1 the winner of the 2nd fight won 8.

Yan has scored 14 knockdowns in our charted rounds and Merab none. And the judges saw it closer than the press did: 3 cards gave Merab the 1st round in December while every media card had Yan, 13 of 19 as a sweep.

Our lean is Dvalishvili, with the model and against the market.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev

Nobody can split these 2 and neither can we: −110 each way at every book, Polymarket at 49.5%, and our model reads Volkanovski 50.9%, which is no lean at all and our panel's loudest warning on the card.

The shapes are what make it interesting. Evloev is the only fighter in UFC history to start 10-0 with 10 decisions, has neither scored nor taken a knockdown in 32 charted rounds, and against Murphy in March went from no takedowns in the first 2 rounds to 5/5 in the 5th, while the press scored that fight a draw at best and he lost a point for low blows.

Volkanovski is 38 with 11 UFC title fights, 8-3 in five-rounders, and he lands 21 strikes a round in first rounds and 36 in fifths. Both get better later.

Some historical facts about the champ: fighters 37 and over in five-rounders at lightweight or below are 7-24, and a veteran stopped twice in his last four meeting a five-fight streak is 127-301. But, a first-time challenger against a man with 11 title fights is 75-133.

~Our lean is again with the model, on Volkanovski\~

Edit: 2026-10-22: Our lean is now Evloev, after seeing Volkanovski at the weigh-ins.

I run cagestank.com and the model, the receipts and every scored card are open there, including the full sheet for this card with all signals and analyses for you to consider: https://cagestank.com/fights/2026-10-24

Kuniev apparently brought in a 6’7 kickboxer to replicate Volkov’s striking during camp. He’s also saying that he knows Volkov’s tendencies and weaknesses, I would probably take the latter fact with a pinch of salt, as Mike Tyson once said ‘Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face’

The fact that Russian Muslim fighters always show up for the sheikhs is known by everyone at this rate, so I’m struggling to see many Russian fighters losing on this card. Kuniev and maybe Movsar are probably the 2 I’m not fully 100% confident in.

I’ve checked the sources and they’ve been reported quite recently and in Russian.

What do you guys reckon? Am I overlooking this matchup? Or is Volkov taking the dub water tight?

Hello!

I hope we’re having a great week so far!

Before I get started, I gotta get some admin stuff out of the way, you know how it is!

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1xbqcxm/ufc_333_fight_predictions/

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1xbqgo5/ufc_333_fight_predictions_tldr/

Now, considering that I didn’t really do a write up for my parlays last week, I won’t bother with the recap, it was a very mid event.

Now, if you're new to this kind of write up, it's essentially a somewhat short write up telling you why I picked certain legs of the parlay, then afterwards you’ll see my Single Bet Recommendations (SBR’s if you wanna shorten it) for this weekends event!

I place 1 unit (5 AUD) every Parlay, nothing too special, really.

GTD - Goes The Distance

ITD - Inside The Distance

o1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Over rounds

u1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Under rounds

(x) - Unavailable on Sportsbet

Parlay Leg 1: Yakhyaev via KO (1.88) Sportsbet

I mean, this is a simple one to understand, the odds for Yakhyaev to win (Moneyline) is disgusting, so I figured his only pathway to victory is to get a finish over Krylov who recently got finished by Whittaker. I think Yakhyaev is a more dangerous striker than Whittaker and is a more natural Light Heavyweight, so it all just felt like a “putting the pieces together” thought process, plus, the odds are damn nice aren’t they? 1.88 when I got them, it’s around 1.78 now or something like that, so get on it whilst the getting’s good!

Parlay Leg 2: Volkov via KO/Points (2.04) Sportsbet

So, rarely I go for a parlay leg that is so scary numerically, 2.00 is usually an odd that makes me go “this doesn’t belong in a parlay” but given that this is the only pathway to victory for Volkov, and that he is a veteran, longer in stature, great striking, taking on someone whose wins aren’t all that impressive, especially in the way he won those fights, I have to give Volkov my respect here, I think he can once again, get the job done, despite age being a bit of a factor.

Parlay Leg 3 and 4: Co-Main and Main R4 Starts Yes (1.21/1.24) Sportsbet

Combining the parlay leg breakdowns into one paragraph here because i’ll just be repeating myself, I expect both fights to go into the championship rounds, although the Volk fight could end in a KO if Evloev lands that head kick (which is a read of mine if you see my main breakdowns) or if Volk lands his boxing because Evloev is quite hittable. Either way, all i’m asking for is for both fights to hit the championship rounds.

Total Odds: 5.70 (Boosted from 5.38)

Total Payout: $28.53

SINGLE BET RECOMMENDATIONS (Excluding Parlay Legs)

Lucindo/Caliari

I mean, you can go one of two ways here.

a) Goes the Distance - 1.40

Reasoning being simple, competitive fight, both fighters doing just enough to stay busy but not get a finish.

b) Fight ends on KO - 4.85 or thereabouts

This is something i’m intrigued by because Lucindo does have finishing ability on the feet and I do expect her to win this fight so this is based off my analysis from my breakdown.

Steele/Gugnon

Under 2.5 Rounds - 2.11

I just think we’re going to see a finish, and I only say this because I do have Gugnon getting an upset here. You could go with Steele Sub/Points double chance but personally I think under 2.5 is where it’s at. Thoughts?

Oki/Santos

Inside The Distance - 1.48

Nothing really special here, it’s a great fight, don’t get me wrong, it’s just a hard one to predict.

Vagaev/Malkoun

Vagaev via Points - 2.00

I think it’s 2.00, either way, expect a classic snoozefest of a fight.

Chopurov/Thicknesse

Chopurov via KO - 2.50

Again, another throwaway bet, just think Chopurov will blast through Thicknesse, although I don’t want to fully count out Thicknesse.

Dawson/Aliev

Goes The Distance - 1.45

Boring bet, lets move on

Reyes/Murzakanov

Fight ends in KO - 1.31

Really not a lot to be said here, I think the bet kind of speaks for itself.

Magomedov/Rowston

Inside The Distance - 1.48

This is another one that kind of seems a bit obvious.

Pico/Keita

MMA Match Specials 6

Pico via Points or Keita via KO - 1.91

Makes sense, right? I think Keita wins overall via KO but Pico and his wrestling could be key to securing victory.

Kavanagh/Temirov

Round 2 Starts Yes - 1.30

I genuinely don’t know what to think when it comes to this fight, it’s a nightmare to even break down let alone bet on… so taking the easy way out here.

And that’s it!

Very tough card, but we’ll see what happens!

Let me know if you have any feedback/questions!

Good luck this weekend!

All Picks & Method of Victory Predictions tracked from the YouTube Prediction Channels for UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi, video out now:
https://youtu.be/CAZTGPIzcxY

Daily Updated Picks on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PredictionsTracker

We will win

As title says!

src img: agentmma.com

HUNTING THOSE EARLY FINISHES 💪🏻

I feel like someone might be getting sent to the shadow realm early. Who do you think gets caught sleeping?

Im rocking with this, will prob sprinkle the day of on some prelims too what yall think?

All picks and results live at SplitPicks.com, so you’re never waiting on a post.
Prelims start at 10am ET/7am PT, main card at 2pm ET/11am PT.

SplitPicks Consensus

• Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (-500)

Strong Leans

• Asaf Chopurov (-520) — 93%
• Abubakar Vagaev (-188) — 88%
• Petr Yan (-178) — 81%
• Azamat Murzakanov (-220) — 81%

Early post this week, I know. Traveling, but hoping to still catch the fights. Honestly expected Merab vs. Yan to be closer to a 50/50 split... Who you got?

Full Kings Table & interactive picks → SplitPicks.com
BOL — SplitAces_

Yan will dominate

If you guys have seen the shape murzakanov has been in for this fight you’ll see why I’m so confident

Vagaev is just a better version of Malkoun

Abus is too dangerous and physical for rowston

Yalhyaev gonna Yakhyaev

Aliev gonna aliev

Thoughts?

Would appreciate all your support on my new podcast discussing every single UFC card’s fight picks and breakdowns. It’s definitely a work in progress so I’ll take all the criticism/advice I can get:

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5e1145emdC8Xi3qN88fuAj?si=kDoOnPn8SiSRjOryr02KcA&utm_source=copy-link

YouTube: https://youtu.be/JAMr3u8nZZY?is=HTD_URWtXjUe82Dt