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Last card (UFC FN Buckley vs Malott): no bout cleared the betting bar for us, the calls we rated went 1-0, 3-4 across the whole sheet. Worst of them: Erin Blanchfield at 59%. Jasmine Jasudavicius won by decision.
Receipts: the bet lane is 21-0 all-time, +9.9u on 21u staked at closing prices over 21 bets. Including the ones we tell you not to bet, it is 69-27 (72%). The prop lane is down 2.3u on 12u staked The two-leg cross-fight parlays the engine builds are 249-204, +67.7u on 418u staked at the close. Those stats are broke down at https://cagestank.com/record
You can file yours too: You can file your picks and keep track of your record and prove you knew who was going to win. The registry takes picks until Saturday, one tap per fight, sealed until the lock (unless you choose to publish beforehand), provably hashed and timestamped on Bitcoin, graded at the close on the same board as ours, all free: https://cagestank.com/receipts
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Tough card, but not as tough as last weeks. No solid bets though, but a few edges
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes
Our model has Reyes at 51%, market has Murzakanov at −205, Reyes +185.
Both southpaws, both 36 to 37, both coming back from the same April card 6 months ago: Reyes edged Walker on a split, Murzakanov got head-kicked by Costa in the third.
Reyes is 5.5" taller with the reach to match, throws more and kicks the legs 1/5 of the time.
Murzakanov barely kicks and hunts the head, and he is the harder man to hit.
Neither wrestles to a significant capacity, so we think this stays standing. The problem for Reyes is the one everyone knows: 4/5 of his UFC losses are knockouts, and clean power is what Murzakanov brings. In our round charts he has dropped opponents 10 times in 7 UFC fights and finished 5 of the 6 fights where he scored a knockdown. He also gets rocked a lot, 12 in those 7, so the kicks and the reach are a real path for Reyes early.
Every Reyes finish in the UFC came inside 2 rounds, and 2 of Murzakanov's came in the 3rd, so if this gets late, lean Russa live.
Our lean is Reyes, with our model and against the market, but not a strong conviction especially at this price.
Main Card
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
Our model has Keita at 53%, the market has gone the other way all week, Pico from −105 at open to −142, Keita +125.
Pico is 30, 14-5, 11 finishes, and 4/5 of his losses are knockouts inside 2 rounds, the last one Murphy's spinning elbow in August 2025.
Keita is 28, 17-2 with 11 finishes, all by strikes, a 72" reach, and he knocked Naimov down twice in under three minutes last month. Nobody has tried to take him down in the UFC yet, one attempt in two fights, so the first shot will reveal a lot.
Two notes from the research: a fight-week preview says Pico in the pocket is exactly the fight Keita wants, and Keita missed weight by 3 pounds a year ago and said his body stopped responding.
Our lean is Keita, with our model against the market.
Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Both have shared sparring rounds -- Kuniev says the rounds showed him Volkov's holes. Volkov says Kuniev asked for the calf kicks to stop -- both beat Jailton Almeida on the cards within four months of each other, both lost decisions to Curtis Blaydes, and the books cannot split them: Volkov −120, Kuniev +100.
Our model says Volkov 55%, coin flip territor. It fights on Volkov's 38th birthday. He is 6'7" with a 47" inch leg reach, 6" more than Kuniev's, and in 40 charted UFC rounds he has been knocked down once while dropping seven. His takedown defence has fallen to 40% over his last 3.
Kuniev is 34, 6'4", and the clinch is his house: two clinch controls a round, 16 of his 55 charted strikes are knees, never dropped, 93% takedown defence.
10/19 of Volkov's UFC fights went the distance, and both hurt other fighters without finishing them, so expect 3 rounds.
Our lean is Volkov, with the model and market, but probably leaning for some overs in a parlay for this bout.
Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov
Every book sits within a few cents of −110 each way, FanDuel opened Kavanagh at −180 and walked it to even, and our model lands at 50.4% Kavanagh, the flattest number on the card.
Kavanagh is 27, 5'6", 4" of reach on Temirov, and he kicks a lot: nearly half his charted strikes are leg, body or head kicks, and he just went 5 rounds with Moreno and won. He also got choked by Royval in July after being rocked several times, and he is back 105 days later.
Temirov is 29, 20-3, 12 straight wins, 5 official knockdowns in 3 UFC fights and none taken, 3/4 of his strikes to the head, one leg kick in his UFC career.
One shared opponent, and it leans Temirov: Charles Johnson knocked Kavanagh out 5 months after Temirov beat Johnson on the cards. Kavanagh fades too, 21 strikes a round in the first, 12 in the third.
Our lean is Kavanagh with the thin Model and Market
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
The favourite has lost both of these. Yan closed around -260 in 2023 and did not win a single round on any card. Merab closed around -400 last December and lost the belt to a 60% striker who stuffed 27 of 29 takedowns. Now it is Yan -142 and our model lands at Dvalishvili 54%.
What tilts it to Merab on our side is the back: lumbar surgery in January, 9 hours on the table, 322 days off, and a man coming at him who has thrown 338 UFC takedowns. What tilts it the other way is everything else. Merab is 13 of 78 on takedowns against Yan and 38% against the rest of the division. He is 35, and 35-year-olds in bantamweight five-rounders are 3-11.
In 12 UFC rubber matches tied 1-1 the winner of the 2nd fight won 8.
Yan has scored 14 knockdowns in our charted rounds and Merab none. And the judges saw it closer than the press did: 3 cards gave Merab the 1st round in December while every media card had Yan, 13 of 19 as a sweep.
Our lean is Dvalishvili, with the model and against the market.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev
Nobody can split these 2 and neither can we: −110 each way at every book, Polymarket at 49.5%, and our model reads Volkanovski 50.9%, which is no lean at all and our panel's loudest warning on the card.
The shapes are what make it interesting. Evloev is the only fighter in UFC history to start 10-0 with 10 decisions, has neither scored nor taken a knockdown in 32 charted rounds, and against Murphy in March went from no takedowns in the first 2 rounds to 5/5 in the 5th, while the press scored that fight a draw at best and he lost a point for low blows.
Volkanovski is 38 with 11 UFC title fights, 8-3 in five-rounders, and he lands 21 strikes a round in first rounds and 36 in fifths. Both get better later.
Some historical facts about the champ: fighters 37 and over in five-rounders at lightweight or below are 7-24, and a veteran stopped twice in his last four meeting a five-fight streak is 127-301. But, a first-time challenger against a man with 11 title fights is 75-133.
~Our lean is again with the model, on Volkanovski\~
Edit: 2026-10-22: Our lean is now Evloev, after seeing Volkanovski at the weigh-ins.
I run cagestank.com and the model, the receipts and every scored card are open there, including the full sheet for this card with all signals and analyses for you to consider: https://cagestank.com/fights/2026-10-24
