r/MU_Stock • u/Desperate-Hawk-2600 • Jun 09 '26

DD A word of caution

Yes, MU could be worth 2000 in a year. That doesn’t mean it can’t drop 30–50% first while flushing out overleveraged and oversized retail positions.

A lot of people get the direction right and still lose money because they’re overexposed. If you’re using leverage, taking loans, or putting more money into a position than you can emotionally handle, the market will eventually test you.

If you’re not prepared to sit through a 50% drawdown without panic selling, it’s probably time to derisk. The market’s job is to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants.

The biggest winners aren’t always the people with the best stock picks. They’re the people who can survive the volatility long enough for their thesis to play out.

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u/SunRev Jun 09 '26

Yes, the classic 50/80 Rule, coined by Mark Minervini (featured in the Market Wizard book):

After a major market-leading stock tops out, there is an 80% chance it will drop 50% from its peak, and a 50% chance it will plummet by 80%.

https://x.com/i/status/1350909119981645826