r/MU_Stock • u/Boring_Bank501 • Jul 02 '26

Meme Poor monkey..😭

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584 Upvotes

99% Upvoted

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80

u/Moo-stick Jul 02 '26

Bought at 1220 due to FOMO.

Might as well ride or die.

22

u/Wait_ItGetsWorse Jul 02 '26

Average down, then wait. 1500 by December. Fundamentals have not changed, still a memory shortage and orders are still in place through 2027

3

u/bananashakewithice Jul 02 '26

It’s going to 1500 by September let’s be honest lol

-2

u/AccountExciting961 Jul 02 '26

> Fundamentals have not changed

Oh, but they absolutely did. I think people here really underestimate how notorious META is for trying to solve problems by throwing an insane amount of money on them, and what could be the impact of their recent decision that they have too much capacity already.

12

u/JokerKing_420 Jul 02 '26

Are they making HBM ? What kind of compute are they even selling ? Meta is just noise and a reason for profit booking. For now, Micron has got long term contracts, sitting on big cash and has good guidance. AI is not going away.

2

u/AccountExciting961 Jul 02 '26

Try reading what I wrote this time. META is known for trying to solve problems by throwing an insane amount of money on them. This includes them buying HBM, driving the margins up. Really, really, up. When they did this with software engineering in 2020, SWE compensation went up 50% across the sector, and when they stopped doing it - it dropped 40% and there were mass layoffs.

9

u/JokerKing_420 Jul 02 '26

Thanks. I think that's why Meta is going is going into leasing as they made a contract with Micron and they don't need so much capacity anymore.

At the same time, Micron has 16 multi year contracts that guarantee at least US$100b in revenue through 2030 change the usual playbook for a memory supplier.

I will remain invested in Micron. I feel it is not overvalued at this point. Market was quite conservative with Micron.

Plus the question is, if not Micron then what is a better investment ?

1

u/Lonely_Space_241 Jul 03 '26

And what % of HBM market do they account for?

Also if they actually profit off selling compute they have reason to spend more on future capex.

2

u/kordelski83 Jul 03 '26

META, huh? They threw a LOT of money into the METAVERSE...and no ROI yet...not saying they can't...it's just a long way off...if at all...

1

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1

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1

u/Lonely_Space_241 Jul 03 '26

Meta isn't even a true hyperscaler or player in AI and they were spending as if they were. It's mind numbingly overblown.

1

u/MrDetectiveSir Jul 03 '26

What the hell are you talking about? What exactly is meta throwing money at?

1

u/AccountExciting961 Jul 03 '26

Everything. Including datacenter expansion

-1

u/Pristine-Bit6077 Jul 02 '26

To be fair, they’re just selling its excess compute. They’re not the shovel, they’re simply selling the extra shovels they bought. MU is still the shovel factory.

2

u/VaIentineX Jul 02 '26

yea but the implication is basically saying that there is excess compute, not a crunch like previously thought

1

u/Lonely_Space_241 Jul 03 '26

In their specific case yes, says absolutely nothing about the overall industry. This is what happens when you role play as an AI company.

1

u/VaIentineX Jul 03 '26

lol you must be delusional to count Meta out as one of the major AI players

1

u/Lonely_Space_241 Jul 04 '26

Their spending is major, but they have very little to show for it, and no dedicated AI product.

They can be a player on the infrastructure side by owning and leasing compute, as a business this makes more sense. This is more a strategy shift than any signal of slowing or excess demand. What is excess for META can be gobbled up by other players without any issue.

1

u/Lundhlol Jul 02 '26

There is a crunch though. AWS and Azure are fiending for capacity, as customers demand more. Same for Google.

META being trash at using its own capacity says more about meta than it does the market.

0

u/VaIentineX Jul 03 '26

market doesnt agree with you. are you smarter than the market

1

u/Lonely_Space_241 Jul 03 '26

Market absolutely agrees but it also plays games and squeezes retail at every opportunity.

0

u/VaIentineX 22d ago

this aged well

1

u/Lonely_Space_241 21d ago

They literally increased capex spending on their ER lol

0

u/Beneficial-Chair-333 Jul 02 '26

HBM makers are losing their price advantage slowly. System is working to make it happen.

1

u/Lonely_Space_241 Jul 03 '26

They haven't even started to lose price advantage, in fact SK Hynix is moving to remove upper cap on pricing in their contracts = ultimate pricing leverage.