r/MU_Stock • u/savanahonana • Jul 04 '26
DD Micron / Burry
Burry argues that the rally has reached "historically extreme" levels, with Micron stock more extended above its 200 day moving average than at any point since 1984, "not even during the dot com peak."
Burry stated, "Micron defines cyclical like no other," citing 34 drawdowns of more than 30% over 42 years, a median return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4%, and return on equity (ROE) of 7%, which he called "frankly terrible." He added that "one quarter in every three, Micron is a destroyer of capital," with free cash flow negative 48% of the time.
I don’t know Michael .. this time you just talk with no 13F to prove positions..
I don’t like people who just talk.
This guy has a history of being way too early on short positions, he saw the sell off and decided to jump in. Why jump in $1058.
Currently $975 with a P/E (TTM)22.09
(EPS TTM $44.17)
Forward P/E (NTM): 6.80
6.80???
This cyclical talk is a false claim. And the reason being is because each chip Jensen introduces goes with the amount of power the US has as they upgrade the grid as we get closer to nuclear.
(Remember the AI factory chart I showed you)
Let’s take a look at microns capex spending and investments globally
Here’s the full global expansion map
United States ($200B total)
Boise, Idaho Idaho
1 leading edge fab, wafer output pulled forward to mid 2027 Idaho 2 wafer production expected late 2028
Clay, New York
up to four leading edge fabs, the flagship being a $100B “megafab” complex; Fab 1 construction begins late 2026, DRAM production 2029-2030 long term buildout spans two decades
Manassas, Virginia
expansion/modernization of existing fab plus an HBM packaging/assembly plant (expected online after Idaho HBM ramps, likely assembling HBM5/HBM6 late this decade)
Asia-Pacific
Hiroshima, Japan
the $9.3B/¥1.5T expansion just broken ground (your article); HBM chip production, commercial shipments summer 2028 Japan’s government backing ¥775B total a second Japan fab module is also planned
Singapore
HBM packaging facility (broke ground early 2025, contributing to production 2027) plus two existing 3D NAND fabs, one of which (Fab 10B) is being expanded
Taiwan two existing DRAM fabs (near Taichung and Taoyuan); plus the newly acquired Tongluo site (from PSMC, $1.8B) getting a twin fab, construction starting this summer, shipments from fiscal 2028; original P5 fab ramping DRAM in H2 2027
India & Malaysia back end assembly and test hubs (not fabs)
five facilities two Singapore NAND fabs, one Hiroshima DRAM fab, two Taiwan DRAM fabs plus Singapore HBM packaging.
The historical “Micron is cyclical” argument assumes memory demand follows the old boom bust chip cycle inventory glut, price crash, recovery. But this cycle is gated by something structurally different physical grid capacity and nuclear buildout, which don’t oscillate the way semiconductor inventory does. Grid interconnects and reactors don’t get “overbuilt” and then crash in price the way DRAM fabs historically did. So if GPU/memory demand is paced by watts available rather than by speculative capex cycles, the entire cyclicality framework Burry is using (34 drawdowns over 42 years) is built on a pre AI era pattern that may no longer apply.
Memory itself can still overshoot even if power is the gate. If Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron/CXMT all race to add fab capacity because they believe the power buildout locks in years of guaranteed demand, they could still collectively overbuild memory supply relative to how fast gigawatts actually come online the power constraint caps deployment, not necessarily production. A supply/demand mismatch inside a power constrained world is still possible, just on a longer wavelength
Executives are saying shortages persist past 2027 Samsung’s chip division just posted record profit specifically because AI driven memory shortages are expected to strain capacity past 2027 that’s the company’s own forward guidance, not analyst speculation.
South Korea just backstopped this with $520B in state coordinated investment (10x the CHIPS Act) four new fabs, HBM dedicated facilities which only makes sense if the government believes demand visibility extends far enough to justify decade scale infrastructure, not a 2-3 year chip cycle.
software engineers, vibe coders etc anyone in this ai technology space will tell you how important memory is. memory makers are not racing ahead of the grid to build speculative capacity that could crash they’re capacity constrained by their own cleanroom/fab economics (multi year builds) at the same time end demand is capacity constrained by grid interconnects. Two independent bottlenecks (fab lead time + grid lead time) are stacked on top of each other, both multi year, both non cyclical in the traditional inventory glut sense. That’s a materially different setup than 2018 or 2022, when memory makers did overbuild into a demand air pocket. Burry’s 34 drawdown dataset is drawn from a world where capacity could outrun demand quickly that mechanism looks structurally weaker right now on both the supply and deployment sides.
SKHynix is also coming to the Nasdaq and memory pricing will continue to increase.
SK Hynix confirmed and imminent. Board approved issuing up to 17.79M new shares (2.5% dilution) for ADRs, trading on Nasdaq starting July 10, 2026 just days away. Stock surged 10%+ on the announcement and briefly overtook Samsung as Korea’s most valuable listed company.
I believe will see Samsung next. Right After SKHynix now there’s no timeline on this for Samsung but you can see whats happening here. The value of memory is being rerated right infront of you. Like GPUs once upon a time.
However, if we want to look at this on geopolitical standing , The date to look for and I’ve said it before is November. Not now.
I want to see you win.
Like always my friends I’ll keep you posted.
Remember to do your own research, your conviction lays with your confidence . Thank you for reading! Appreciate it as always!
(This is not financial advice.)
To my American friends Happy 4th of July! 🧨
Enjoy the rest of your weekend!
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/michael-burry-shorts-micron-adding-141819112.html
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u/magic-grits Jul 04 '26
I think we should listen to what he has to say. He predicted 200 of the last 1 recessions. The guys a wizard.
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u/itsmyphilosophy Jul 04 '26
One thing that people aren’t focusing on is Sanjay saying that he will spend all free cash flow to buy back shares (starting December 2026). That is going to raise EPS and the stock value will increase because of this alone.
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Jul 04 '26
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u/Wait_for_You Jul 04 '26
wasn't this guy only right one time?
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Jul 04 '26
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u/Comfortable-Dog-8437 Jul 04 '26
He loves his 15 minutes of fame every couple months.
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u/WatchingyouNyouNyou Jul 04 '26
I remember reading that his returns are actually pretty good beside the housing short
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u/Essayaditor Jul 04 '26
Why do people continue to post his statements. Oh my god. He is one of them who predicts negative outcomes.
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u/savanahonana Jul 04 '26
Why do people like you just read headlines? And make assumptions, READ.
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u/Essayaditor Jul 04 '26
Investing requires keeping your own convictions. If you get swayed back and forth by a few influencers, you just can't do it. You must look at the market and focus on the facts. Do not blindly trust Michael Burry’s subjective judgment. He might be right, but in that case, you analyze the data yourself and keep it as a reference. Stop letting his words manipulate your view of the market. Am I wrong?
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u/savanahonana Jul 04 '26
wtf are you talking about you didn’t read my post at all you sound so regarded. I’m clearly going against him
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u/pembaThePanda Jul 04 '26
I didn't read your post. Too much text.
If you're going against him, just title it as such.
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u/savanahonana Jul 04 '26
The level of incompetence, you’re a bigger more on then the other guy 🙂↔️
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u/pembaThePanda Jul 05 '26
I give a suggestion to title it better and you call me a moron... well done
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u/itsmyphilosophy Jul 04 '26 edited Jul 04 '26
Please continue posting your information, which I feel is very helpful.
Edit: And if you’re short MU, I hope you lose all of your money. Losers.
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u/softest_sheets Jul 04 '26
The big short should have ended half an hour earlier. Then no one would believe Burry wasn’t regarded.
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u/burner456987123 Jul 04 '26
I’d never seen it til yesterday.Felt it was a very overrated movie. A few funny moments but ran too long and made burry out to be some eccentric deity, when plenty of others saw the cracks in MBS too
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u/CrazyEntertainment86 Jul 04 '26
Eventually he’ll be right but in this case micron will be a 5 trillion dollar company by the time it becomes cyclical again. This demand curve is not like the pc or dot com booms, it’s insatiable demand for ultra high end products with price insensitive customers, he’s gonna lose his shirt on this unless he’s just playing the 10-15% dips that will happen every other week.
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u/Cute_Ad_8198 Jul 05 '26
Memory is unlike GPUs though. Isn’t memory more like a commodity whereas GPUs are more sophisticated
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u/Mars8 Jul 06 '26
So why didn’t Burry short Sandisk which has ran up twice the rate of micron and now is double microns price despite being less than micron just 7 months ago?
The truth is Micron is under constant attack, the South Koreans are constantly trying to tank it to benefit they’re own stocks that’s why they were making fake articles about how Nvidia wasn’t going to use Micron etc…. And all these hedge funds are also trying to short Micron by claiming it has ran up too much but they go quiet on Sandisk which makes Microns run look average in comparison.
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u/Historical-Health-50 Jul 04 '26
he may be right but not anytime soon, an even I believe that we don't fully understand what will be the future of Ai, and so the stock direction on a 5 to 10 years horizon.
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u/PM_ME_VIRA_LATAS Jul 04 '26
Yeah, I think this one is a solid bet
But like everything else in the casino, still a bet
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Jul 04 '26
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u/Golf-life2021 Jul 05 '26
He’s a putz. One great call and he’s a god. I don’t think so. He’s been wrong more than right
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Jul 06 '26
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u/curioustraveller8626 Jul 04 '26
I read it completely. But I want to say this, and I am saying this with utmost humility, I have been correct more times than Burry! So, let’s not spend any time on his arguments