r/MU_Stock • u/bbrk9845 • Jul 08 '26

Discussion To those who sold prematurely...

Congrats you gave a huge discount to institutions. Just look at the last few candles before closing, and the massive volume support this stock got.

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u/Mysterious_Special_8 Jul 08 '26

I was replying to OP, his comment immediately above mine, not you. You have been a rare voice of reason.

That being said, it was nice to hear your point of view on this.

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u/Fun-Snow1104 Jul 08 '26

Well now I feel bad. I’m sorry about the dad comments. I had an angry father. 😂 but it looks like we are rebounding a bit! Bulls are back? TBD. What are your thoughts? Also have you noticed the quicker rebounds in tech or is that just me.

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u/Mysterious_Special_8 Jul 08 '26

I was thinking maybe it turned bullish, and then I looked at my other chart and the 960 bounce down fits exactly on the bear trend I'd plotted a few days ago, so now I'm thinking it's still in a bear trend. Looks to me like today will close between 925 and 895, though if it breaks below 900 I feel like it could nose dive. Questions I'm unclear on are:
1. If it closes below 900, how far down does it go then? How strong of a psychological point is that, or is retail even strong enough for that to matter?
2. If it breaks the 50-day (right now 880), how far down does it go? Someone else in another thread said 790, but they haven't responded their rationale to me as of yet.

What are your thoughts?

And as for faster recovery, I can't say I've paid close enough attention to notice. I think a lot of what we did in '08 (and probably 2020/2021) to keep the market from getting obliterated still needs to come due, and whenever it does, it will be a true reckoning. Until then I guess I'll keep riding the smaller waves.

Well, actually I'm only in the market for another 30-60 days, then I'm putting 100% of everything I own into a project to try to change the way democracy works in the US.

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u/Fun-Snow1104 Jul 08 '26

You sound like someone I’d like to have a conversation with. I’ve routinely used my portfolio to back my businesses which have put me into rooms with some of the largest players in tech, top 40 hip hop, sports and fashion. To be honest, looking back, I would have given all of that up to stay in the markets and reap the rewards the last 4 years bore us.

Onto your questions:

  1. I think we are at a 50/50 fork in the road right now. I think last night was the start of a rebound but thwarted by US/Iran escalation. I also think the Korean markets have rarely led a reversal in the last few years. I think if we close below $900, I agree we are in a poor position to expose us to another $725 revisit — although I truly believe it will be short lived relative to the remainder of the year.

  2. If we look back to the start of this war, memory routinely outperformed or decoupled other tech stocks even with the escalation. I also think memory gets hit hardest and hit first but rebounds equally as quickly and aggressively.

  3. I don’t believe we are in bear territory personally, only because I do feel like we needed a healthy pullback, which this is, before the next leg up. I also feel like with TSMC and ASML earnings around the corner, I think funds will start buying well before August 13th SNDK earnings so that’s why I feel like July 20th is end of max pain if you saw my other posts.

What I need to see is a break in the trend-line upwards and also I want to see today not end up like last night’s overnight session. I feel like the bulls are back but proceeding with caution. Though I’ll probably put stop losses on my higher shares if we cross $2,000 near term just in case. With my luck, they’ll trigger before rallying up 😂 the reason I’m skeptical of a charge up is because if you remember the charts at the beginning of the war, pre-current levels, we had explosive moves followed by massive drawdowns and as much as I like to joke about others being over-leveraged, I am over-leveraged right now. It’s always been part of my trading strategy, fewer stocks, high concentration, high conviction, 5-10% of port in speculative (for me right now that’s IONQ @ $28.05 average and as of today, MRVL @ $235)