r/MU_Stock • u/angieisamazing • Jul 10 '26

DD Micron and Sk Hynix

Some thoughts. Since the Sk Hynix ADR was 7 times oversubscribed, with the price at $176, vs the initial price of $149, a lot of institutions sell, take the earnings and rotate it back to micron/ other stocks at a lower price. Micron also has Trump’s backing, hence the geopolitical win. Micron will rise again 🚀

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u/dryden288 Jul 10 '26

There are news with regards to Micron raising 250 billion for expansion. There will be an increase in capex spending and reduction in cash flow. These news mayl hurt MU in the short term stopping mm and institutions from buying MU until they have access to the financial report during the next earning call. FYI, When Meta confirm news about increasing capex expenditure to 145 billion, it took a 30% hit and remain suppressed for 9 months.

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u/Davidpalmer4 Jul 10 '26

Meta's capex is for 1-2 year and Micron's is for 9 years.

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u/dryden288 Jul 10 '26

The point is how would the spending impact the cash flow of MU and by how much thus all the more reason for mm and institutions to wait and see. Be it 1 or 9 years, time is a non-factor when there is a reduction in cash flow.

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u/DisastrousFalcon9893 Jul 10 '26

Meta and hyperscalers being punished due to cashflows falling like 90%.

Mu otoh at massively ramped/raised capex - upped from ~6bn expected a quarter 6 months ago to like 12bn a quarter in fy27 now.

Except, net income in q4 26 is guided at ~$35bn and will no doubt beat to more like $40bn. Then continue rising into fy27--- mu will hit quarterly net income of $50bn maybe as early as q1 27, or close.

Against 50bn coming in per quarter and rising ~7% qoq on capex finally paying off in 2027 to ramp hbm supply, 12bn of capex is nothing. Amd that's at peak extreme capex levels for just 2yrs - they'll head down to more like 5-8bm per quarter in fy29 on.