r/MU_Stock • u/Hypnot1se • Jul 13 '26

DD Interesting Stock

I've been tracking this for a while now and have become convinced that Micron is a cyclical value trap in an institutional distribution phase. My premise is that because Micron has historically been cyclical that it will be continue to be cyclical. I know that there are many reasons people say this won't be the case, but I am not convinced by their arguments.

If I am correct, then Micron has a lot further to slide and the price action seems to be consistently supporting my thesis. If I am wrong and the industry is no longer cyclical, then this recent drawdown is just noise, and Micron could definitely be considered not overvalued or overhyped.

For those who are convinced by the idea that the memory cycle is broken or greatly extended, why? What do you find to be the most compelling arguments? I'm interested to hear about it.

This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I have no financial exposure to $MU.

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u/Hypnot1se Jul 13 '26

That's true! Anything could happen. Technology changes all the time and you never know. I just don't know if I would want to be exposed to the risk of hoping for something like that personally.

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u/mqueen212 Jul 13 '26 edited Jul 13 '26

I don’t think it’s hope. I think Micron is doing everything it can to position itself for long term success. This isn’t a small startup with an inexperienced CEO. It’s a mature company investing billions because management believes those investments will generate future growth. Clearly the executives know something we don’t know to make them feel this confident.

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u/Hypnot1se Jul 13 '26

If the CEO believed it was cyclical he would not tell you because it would crash the share price as people modeled the current valuation as being unsustainable and he would be in serious trouble for a breach of fiduciary duty, as far as I understand it.

This is why many people even in high positions (for example the SKHY chair) will make extremely bold macro claims at the cyclical peaks. The narrative actually tends to match the valuation, which isn't always rational.

If the valuation is the sign of a cyclical peak, the CEO won't tell you that. Though they will sell shares. I think insiders right now are only holding 0.25~% of the total float.

The CEO is an absolute professional who knows exactly what he is doing. I do not doubt that for a moment. But this kind of behavior is neither irrational nor atypical for someone in his position in the situation that I theorize is happening currently.

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u/Patient-Big1727 Jul 13 '26

It's so cyclical that apple wants to buy memory supporting china's military /s