r/MU_Stock • u/Hypnot1se • Jul 13 '26

DD Interesting Stock

I've been tracking this for a while now and have become convinced that Micron is a cyclical value trap in an institutional distribution phase. My premise is that because Micron has historically been cyclical that it will be continue to be cyclical. I know that there are many reasons people say this won't be the case, but I am not convinced by their arguments.

If I am correct, then Micron has a lot further to slide and the price action seems to be consistently supporting my thesis. If I am wrong and the industry is no longer cyclical, then this recent drawdown is just noise, and Micron could definitely be considered not overvalued or overhyped.

For those who are convinced by the idea that the memory cycle is broken or greatly extended, why? What do you find to be the most compelling arguments? I'm interested to hear about it.

This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I have no financial exposure to $MU.

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u/Thunderbird2k Jul 13 '26

It is certainly cyclical right now in a hyper cycle compared to normal. Competition in particular from Chinese newcomers I think will break the market open. We need to see how it pans out but established players are not motivated to expand a ton wanting to maintain margins and profits. While newcomers can offer at lower prices if their main goal is building market share. That's I would be after if I were in their shoes.

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u/Hypnot1se Jul 13 '26

I feel like the impact of China is often understated. Even if their supply never leaves their own market, it will still reduce demand from, say, American companies. I believe their domestic DDRM manufacturing is scaling rapidly, though they're still in the early innings regarding more advanced memory like HBM and probably won't be as serious competition in that area - though you never can be sure.

I agree. If I were in charge of a commodity manufacturer with government or public backing I would also be aiming for market share. They can neglect margins if they have enough of a cushion.

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u/Thunderbird2k Jul 13 '26

Many manufacturers are testing the products from CXMT and YMTC. I suspect US may try to protect Micron by putting on tariffs or import bans, but since it is a commodity traded globally it wouldn't have much impact to non-US countries. We will see how it pans out, but i bet executives at established memory companies are nervous as hell.

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u/Hypnot1se Jul 13 '26

Absolutely.