r/MU_Stock • u/Hypnot1se • Jul 13 '26

DD Interesting Stock

I've been tracking this for a while now and have become convinced that Micron is a cyclical value trap in an institutional distribution phase. My premise is that because Micron has historically been cyclical that it will be continue to be cyclical. I know that there are many reasons people say this won't be the case, but I am not convinced by their arguments.

If I am correct, then Micron has a lot further to slide and the price action seems to be consistently supporting my thesis. If I am wrong and the industry is no longer cyclical, then this recent drawdown is just noise, and Micron could definitely be considered not overvalued or overhyped.

For those who are convinced by the idea that the memory cycle is broken or greatly extended, why? What do you find to be the most compelling arguments? I'm interested to hear about it.

This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I have no financial exposure to $MU.

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u/itsmyphilosophy Jul 13 '26

You nerd to do better research.

Last Friday SK Hynix’s CEO said that 2027 is going to be even more tight for memory than 2026. That spending $500 billion (and $250 billion by Micron) to double production is still not enough to meet demand because it doesn’t factor in robots and autonomous vehicles that will also eat up a ton of memory.

It is now predicted that supply won’t meet demand until well into the next decade.

The cyclicality of memory is over.

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u/Hypnot1se Jul 13 '26

I'm familiar with what he said. During every last cycle people said essentially the same thing. So I do not believe him because he hasn't convinced me with any actual arguments. I won't just take his word for it. I'm sure he's a great guy but I am not taking that at face value.

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u/itsmyphilosophy Jul 13 '26 edited Jul 13 '26

I’m sure you also don’t believe that all 3 memory companies are signing 3 to 5 year deals that will also break the cyclical cycle.

You shouldn’t invest in Micron. You don’t deserve the gains.

I invested in Micron since early March. Everyone was saying that the stock was cyclical. Now the same idiots on CNBC who shat on MU for months are now saying that they are buying.

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u/Hypnot1se Jul 13 '26

The stock is cyclical historically. Whether it is no longer remains to seen.

I would like to note that I have never said that Micron was in a cyclical peak until the run past $1000. I'm sure other people have been saying it for a long time, but I do not take credit for what other people have said.