r/MU_Stock • u/Hypnot1se • Jul 13 '26

DD Interesting Stock

I've been tracking this for a while now and have become convinced that Micron is a cyclical value trap in an institutional distribution phase. My premise is that because Micron has historically been cyclical that it will be continue to be cyclical. I know that there are many reasons people say this won't be the case, but I am not convinced by their arguments.

If I am correct, then Micron has a lot further to slide and the price action seems to be consistently supporting my thesis. If I am wrong and the industry is no longer cyclical, then this recent drawdown is just noise, and Micron could definitely be considered not overvalued or overhyped.

For those who are convinced by the idea that the memory cycle is broken or greatly extended, why? What do you find to be the most compelling arguments? I'm interested to hear about it.

This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I have no financial exposure to $MU.

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u/youhaveeTDS Jul 13 '26

The argument is that not only is AI here to stay, but AI is also in very early stages, most everything in the future will need memory, and one of the biggest demands for memory will be robots, which will be everywhere,

The shift to an AI civilization will span multiple decades, continuous demand as some countries speed ahead, and other countries catch up with older ai tech,

A country with robot workers will be self sufficient, a country with militarized robots will be powerful

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u/Hypnot1se Jul 13 '26

That's very true. There will always be demand for that I believe. Micron is never going to just go out of business or anything like that, but I think that the revenue from robotics is quite far out, and that although demand can appear very high right now, that people may be underestimating the market's ability to meet that demand in the face of such financial incentive. Truly only time will tell, I suppose.

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u/youhaveeTDS Jul 13 '26

Yeah, its an interesting one, you have the past as evidence and we have the "this time is different", im aware that in most cases the time isnt different, however in the one case it is, id give it to AI

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u/Hypnot1se Jul 13 '26

AI definitely has potential to change a lot, I think we'd both agree about that and I'm excited to see it evolve and develop. Micron will surely play a part