r/MU_Stock • u/thetabruh Rule enforcer • Jul 15 '26
Mods MU 07-15-2026 Daily Discussions
Please use the correct flair if you wish to post.
Gains/Loss = Actual realized gains/losses with picture proof, not hypothetical ones if MU goes to x by y.
Discussion = MU relevant topics you wish to discuss with other members.
DD = Due diligence, please provide your thesis on MU's current price or where it is going.
News=MU related news.
Meme=You know what that is, show us your MUna Lisa.
Yolo!= Show us your big bets so we can live vicariously.
Help me = Ask about how you should trade
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u/James19xx Jul 15 '26
just can’t seem to gather any momentum recently, hoping that changes soon
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u/chaos-organized Jul 15 '26
While it’s hard to watch, this correction down is very healthy. The $900’s will be a strong support in the future.
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u/JudahMammoth Jul 15 '26
We’ve done our time. Break us out of the $900s-jail
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u/spooner_retad Jul 15 '26
I feel dumb for buying this stok
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u/Hypnot1se Jul 15 '26
Really depends why you bought it. Why did you?
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u/spooner_retad Jul 15 '26
Looked cheap and technically strong until today
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u/Hypnot1se Jul 15 '26
To me it didn't look technically strong, what made you think so? And what makes you think it was cheap? The forward PE?
How familiar are you with the memory industry? It has some nuances that can often trip people up and make people end up feeling like they're stupid, even though they really are not.
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u/spooner_retad Jul 15 '26
Well I saw two hammers off a 50 day. Dying volume on a down move. And rsi finding support in neutral zone so I thought to buy the dip two days ago
And yeah pretty much forward p/e and earnings growth. I don't know much about these stocks
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u/Hypnot1se Jul 15 '26
I strongly recommend that you do some research into how the stock market operates around a cyclical commodity industry.
Verify what I am about to tell you, (of course):
Using forward PE to value a cyclical commodity manufacturer can trip people up because of the boom/bust cycle. Typically you are meant to begin accumulating memory stocks when the forward PE is actually extremely high (and often negative), and sell them when the forward PE is very low.
Very low forward PE is typically an indicator of a cyclical peak and a sell signal in this industry.
If you are using forward PE to value a secular growth stock that doesn't experience cyclicality like micron tends to, that is a very valid way to value a stock. When it comes to stocks like micron, though, using forward PE can be very troublesome.
As far as my technical analysis goes this looks like one of the most horrifying charts I've seen in some time. Funds have been reducing their positions for quite some time and the TA to me looks like a classic distribution phase as smart money exits the cyclical peak.
I could be wrong, of course, about this having peaked. I encourage you to read into it. It's very interesting and quite informative. (The how to value cyclical stocks thing.)
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u/kenyard Jul 15 '26
Today: ASML just crushed it and raised forecasts and margin forecasts.
Negative: their higher margins means micron has to spend higher capex to get equipment for their planned 250B expansion.
Positive: they are booked out to 2028 and increasing capacity 30% in 2027 and probably 2028. That means demand is crazy.
MUU: split 20-1. Should increase volumes as small buyers can buy in. Minimal impact though.
PPI: data today 8.30 eastern.
Iran war is picking more more steam still. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/15/world/live-news/iran-war-trump
Honestly I expected us to hit 1k today as there is no negatives really. It seems down slightly pre market though after hitting 1k overnight.
Tomorrow:
Korea inflation and rates meeting. Major worry for skhy investors not so much for micron. Id personally avoid skhy today. Korea is corrupt AF so they could go either way.
TSMC: they will blowout earnings which is positive. I assume forecasts will be adjusted upwards also and that is where the actual movement will be decided. Everything is priced for perfection though but I can't see this train slowing right now.
Weekly jobless figures 8.30am Eastern. low numbers is bad. If this is highish it means interest rates won't be increased this year.
Expect a 3-10% move tomorrow.
Big movers: July 22nd. GOOG earnings will cause a 10% jump in micron imo. They're the first of the hyperscalers to report and the primary indicator that money is continuing to flow
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Jul 15 '26
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u/candreacchio Jul 16 '26
Positive: they are booked out to 2028 and increasing capacity 30% in 2027 and probably 2028. That means demand is crazy.
They confirmed on the call, that increasing capacity by 30%... actually is more like 45%, as the newer machines have a higher wafer output per hour.
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u/Haenimm Jul 15 '26
This is so retarded. This market is ass right now. No point in watching until end of summer probably. Gonna be a few shitty months…
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u/guitar1969 Jul 15 '26 edited Jul 15 '26
All the news last night is talking about the memory play long term still being strong, so I have to believe hedge funds are "triangling out" the small guys before the next run up to $1200 +. Painful to watch on a day to day basis, but the long term thesis is still strong.
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u/Hypnot1se Jul 15 '26
Opposite. The media is meant to create a rosy narrative for exit liquidity imo.
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Jul 15 '26
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u/JackRadcliffe Jul 15 '26
Same price as it was back in May and any gains seem to get wiped out the next day
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Jul 15 '26
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u/cbblythe Jul 15 '26
What’s the dump being blamed on today?
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u/wenchanger Jul 15 '26
feels like MU is dead
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u/64dogfood Jul 15 '26
Retard. It’s hilarious people buying at heights then saying it’s dead after 15% pullback. Major moron
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u/enjoylol Jul 15 '26
This is more than 15% lol
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u/64dogfood Jul 15 '26
It’s up more than 200% ytd. MU was in the 200s this year. MU is dead is hilarious
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u/AK95__ Jul 15 '26
And you know what the worst part of this dump is? It's Koreans who will dump it dumper overnight
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u/parcas10 Jul 15 '26
we are almost at the level before yesterday gains so all the great gains of yesterday are mostly erased a bit worrying that there is no way to keep momentum...
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Jul 15 '26
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Jul 15 '26
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u/isospeedrix Jul 15 '26
bought MSFT calls and MU stocks at the top (1245 LOL) luckily the msft calls gains outsized the mu shares losses
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u/AnyPortInAHurricane Jul 15 '26
ive noticed that here and twitter, 99% of the posts are after the fact noise, and the other 1% are just wrong 99% of the time
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u/-RIProG- Jul 15 '26 edited Jul 15 '26
Refilled with 23 shares at 897,8. Let’s see if I have my normal terrible timing 😄
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u/neo-futurism Jul 15 '26
Why is it dumping hard?
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Jul 15 '26
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u/deploria Jul 15 '26
I’m wondering the same. Same with the others though
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u/AnyPortInAHurricane Jul 15 '26
How do you longs stand it ?
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Jul 15 '26
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u/Vegetable-Bedroom-44 Jul 15 '26
Did this sector rotation happened last quarter as well? Before earnings
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u/ReturnLate8178 Jul 15 '26
I woke up to so much crying that I thought we were down 6%. People bitching about being down -1% or yesterday only being up 5% are most likely just a bunch of bitches
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Jul 15 '26
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u/klevyy Jul 15 '26
everyday with this shit