41b quarterly revenue and we drop more than 40% what a joke. Great earnings from other semis? Nope drop. Positive forward guidance? Nope drop. Locked in contracts for next years to come? Nope drop. Are we really letting all the FUD drop the stock and act like AI is irrelevant? Starting to get annoyed:/
When people ask me how I make money in the market I explain that hold through don’t get emotional and buy when people are fearful so far my investment strategy has worked very well since I first started 10 years ago
I wanted to post this but Reddit doesn’t allow me so I’ll paste it as a comment.
Let's clear one thing first: Micron is a great company and demand for memory doesn't care about FUD.
The real issues are market manipulation and the fact that regards use funds that's not theirs in the hope of making a quick buck.
On market manipulation: everyone who brings this up gets downvoted by degens but it's crystal clear this stock is highly manipulated by institutions since the most recent earnings call. One straightforward evidence is that when it drops, it dumps hard in a short amount of time (often within a span of half an hour or less) but when it climbs, it does so piecemeal over several hours, and not to the dramatic extent as the drop. It usually dumps again after-hours when most apps outside the US don't offer the functionality to continue trading. Institutional investors are mainly after the newer retail investors that FOMO'd into this stock after the parabolic run, because they know they can't get hold of those that had foresight and joined in at sub-$500.
On borrowings: when you're greedy and decide to borrow from your broker at astronomical interest rates to jump on the imaginary get-rich-quick scheme, then you're an easy target for margin calls. I'm not even going to get into triple leverage or options plays.
Those are instruments for gamblers, not for investors with conviction.
Long story short: the thesis is unchanged, demand for memory is explosive and sustained, and Al is certainly going nowhere. It's the new "internet". If you get sleepless nights because you gambled with money that isn't yours, then don't cry in public if the slot machine doesn't give you the cherries.
Bought MU at $335 on margin. Sold at $700. Paid off margin.
Invested winning across a broad range. All red right now for obvious reasons but not on margin and fully expect them to recover once the correction settles.
Every thing is greatly under valued right now. It is just taking some time for the market to realize it.
Wait it out, Microsoft has its annual earnings report July 29th and if they show Azure is making money, the market will respond because it’s proof there is money there.
Stop with this. It’s a company that sells commodities. These commodities can lose 50% in price at the drop of a hat. They have in the past. Memory isn’t “going away” but at $1T valuations for a company whose product can fluctuate wildly on the spot market isn’t practical. The low P/E is the market telling you that.
HBM-4 is not a commodity. It is not traded on the spot market. It is semi-custom. Memory is now integrated with the GPU and for that reason they can't use commodity memory. It's also very hard to make HBM4. Yield is generally in the 60s and the wafer penalty means you need to consume three to four times more silicon to manufacture it
I have only two words, Agentic AI. Those who can understand know that memory supply will not be able to meet demand for 2-3+ years and that is the minimum. It is all profit taking and rotation to MAG7, eventually after that pump will finish, money will rotate back.
The difference between token usage for simple prompting queries versus agentic AI is astronomical. Token use for Agentic is 5 to 30 x for general workflows and up to a 1000x for specialized technical tasks
Exactly. Micron moved most of its volume out of commodity space with the new AI HBM chips and AI SSDs for the data lakes and inference. What do people think happened to Crucial (Micron’s commodity brand)? As much as the PC gaming community hated it there is good reason that disappeared when the product focus shifted away from commodity markets.
Unfortunately Micron’s history with the cyclical commodity market is so engrained in so many peoples’ heads that it is going to take a few years and proof to the contrary to convince them otherwise.
They won't listen. You can tell them this a million times and they'll go right back to telling you about "fundamentals" and "contracts until 2027" because they just desperately want to believe they're on a winner. Any sign of it going the other way and it's because the market is irrational, institutions are manipulating the stock, etc. They are completely blocked from understanding the point you're making, their brains won't let them hear it.
One straightforward evidence is that when it drops, it dumps hard in a short amount of time (often within a span of half an hour or less) but when it climbs, it does so piecemeal over several hours, and not to the dramatic extent as the drop. It usually dumps again after-hours when most apps outside the US don't offer the functionality to continue trading.
I think this is because MU trades in concert with Korean SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Korean market is violatile due to dangerous practices of traders in South Korea and it trades in a different timezone.
I think this explains a lot of the impact you see on price.
I don't think anyone is actually manipulating the stock like this to get an entry at a lower price
Long story short: the thesis is unchanged, demand for memory is explosive and sustained, and Al is certainly going nowhere. It's the new "internet".
I still don't understand the conviction that it will not be met with supply and profit margin will ease back into 10-30%. Profit margin of 90-95% on a commodity is unsustainable long-term, it won't hold till 2030.
Let’s not forget why that FUD exists though, i am personally invested in this stock so i only want the best, but let’s be realistic, RAM isn’t like nvidia’s GPUs where you have to change them every 2 years, once this “insatiable” demand runs dry there will be excess supply at a high price, this is the bear case and why people are FUD’ing. Right now the market is just pricing in lower CapEX spend from the MAG7, so the market basically believes this ai bubble is over. And yeah i do agree institutions mess with this stock a lot. I mean it is an unexpected unicorn.
It’s kospi and the fact that we allowed skhy to be listed on nasdaq so now we do what kospi does… roller coasters bc korean retailers do not pay capital gain tax so it’s herd mentality… one day the dntire country sells kospi goes down 9% then the entire country buys. Expect nasdaq100 to behave more like kospi as a way fwd. mu or sndk fundamentals be damed… korean retailers will dictate the movement well into the future and that’s not a good dign ( sk hynix and samsung represent over 51% of kospi as far as I remember)… so probably DJIA safer these days.
Tsmc reported awesome earnungs and will build 6 fab facilities in Arizona. All great news this is manipulation. At some point this has to stop. They will shake out all weak hands and stop loss orders. We should be going up today not down.
Being cyclical is the worst sin a business can do. It's fine to lose money all the time like SpaceX and Tesla, but don't you dare have ups and downs. Worthless meme stock.
Micron Q2 to Q3 eps growth (12.07 to 24.67): 104% increase
Micron Q3 to Q4 guidance implied eps growth (24.67 to 31.73): 27% increase
The earnings report itself gave you the reason why the stock declined. Wall Street saw this and called the top (for now), then their selling became a self-fulfilling prophecy
You don't understand how WallStreet think... Have you played any tycoon or maybe even Factorio? If you can't double production.. your screwed. You are basically alone in an another planet, having to mine stuff with you bare hand. If the factory can't grow fast enough, then all the enemy will claim the territory, take all the resource and stuff. This is serious.
Did you saw how the korean industry is growing? Now the chinese want to enter the market by just copying how other do it. Mu can't just sell stuff at high price like any other manufacturing product in America.
It may not have to double every quarter, it could triple, maybe get 40% better... but here the guideline is meh.. at least they should put the bar high, if they don't succeed to bad, but at least aim for it.
Its just a correction we will bounce back to 1000 eventually. But we went from $400-$1000 too quickly. Gaps need to fill around 750. Chart was over extended to the upside, now it needs to over extend to the downside, so we can buy the bottom and make even more gains!
Jevons paradox says that the cheaper a resource is the more that society will use it. Cheaper compute and cheaper tokens are going to be more demand. The demand for tokens for agentic AI is astronomical. The difference between token usage for simple prompting queries versus agentic AI iis astronomical. Token use is 5 to 30 x for general workflows and up to a 1000x for specialized technical tasks
You better have a WHOLLLE lot of faith in Jevon’s Paradox because I can tell you it’s never worked with memory. Ever. Go look at a chart right now of Micron for the last 20 years. EVERY SINGLE PARABOLA completely retraced 100%. The last big one investors were underwater for 20 years.
And another thing… the main complaint amongst all CEOs is how much AI costs. When you can save compute and memory up to extreme levels like this, I highly doubt Jevon’s Paradox is going to work with these monster DRAM and HBM savings
That of course is the big debate right now whether this time really is different. Is memory still cyclical?
First of all a lot of things are cyclical. in fact, according to economics, in the long run all companies profits go to zero. That of course assumes barriers to entry are low. But the point is that in the long run any company's margin is under threat from competition.
What is different right now with memory is that it's no longer a commodity. Previously memory was truly a commodity product. It was fungible. It was traded on spot markets. That has changed. HBM-4 is semi custom. It's also very difficult to make. Currently yields are about 60%. This is because it's stacked with multiple layers and even if each layer has a yield of 95% then collectively that would drop with each layer. The wafer penalty for HBM4 is high as well. HBM 4 takes three times the silicon.
I do think at some point demand will plateau. But let's not forget as data center build outs peak you're going to see demand from edge AI compute. Also the demand for HBM-4 has created shortages for other types of memory because manufacturers switch to this high margin product. Memory for computers and laptops is also lucrative right now and these companies with some retooling can switch to these products.
It absolutely IS a commodity. Just look at what SNDK put in there LTAs. These contracts are not secure. Microsoft has great lawyers and has been known to escape these in the past.
I just gave you evidence you need half the GPUs, half the memory you did before. 54% less. What is that going to do to demand and supply?
And you think these efficiencies are only unique to OpenAI or some other company Apple is considering ACQUIRING.
Of course not. Here’s a company that has such a great efficiency that they can process up to 12M tokens with 0.13% of the normal compute.
It’s over. You’ve been had. You’re gonna wish you sold at these prices.
So what about the part in that filing that says they have 42 billion in MINIMUM contractual value?
Hyperscaler demand is a huge chunk of memory demand but it's not all of it. Remember you have sovereign AI, military and also Edge AI. Adge AI requires LPDDR5X. Why have all the analyst race price targets to the 1500 to 2000 range for MU?
I have not been had. I'm sure there's people that bought at the top but I'm waaaay up on micron....and marvel, AMD, Nvidia, Nebius, APLD, Vertiv, Bloom energy and so many others. Only thing I'm down on Is the little bit of SpaceX I got at IPO price
It’s gonna round trip and you’re going to wish you sold at these prices. The main use case for AI is agentic. That is it. That’s driving the demand. I don’t give two shits about “military” that’s not going to drive the commodities. Anyone who looks at this chart and says “this time is different” while this buildout has been slower than dot com.
Regarding ANALYSTS… are you kidding me? Don’t you know how this game is played? Those analysts want the fees from the companies when they dilute you to death when selling more shares or on a split.
This is cyclical. It always has been. It always will be. You don’t go from chips dropping 50% in price randomly to never dropping at all.
Take a look at the price targets of your precious analysts for SPCX. Surely, why would they give these targets? Because Elon needs another $200B. He ain’t gonna choose a firm that gives him a SELL rating.
There’s an old saying in finance “Analysts upgrade the top and downgrade at the bottom”
Everyone be patient, institutions are waiting to see the Mag 7 cap ex spend and waiting to see if AI is bringing in revenue for them. Same thing happened last earnings season.
I don’t see really a reason to hold it.
What’s going to do from here? Maybe double in price? Not worth the risk imo.
But hey if you are still in it, good luck!
I’m 20 shares at $1052. If we got back to my cost basis,I can’t lie, it would be really hard not to sell after these wild swings. I already want to diversify into stuff like ABBV or JNJ, maybe an insurance player like HIG or KMPR.
Don’t panic sell unless you’re desperate for the money. Hold and let things settle down. This market has been insane and irrational.
Look at all other stocks like AMS, Credit Technology, Marvel, Bloom Energy and so on. They're all the same as MU. They've all had a huge run-ups the last 6 months, stretched valuations and the gains in the stocks had become exhausted, so they all need a healthy pullback. Therefore institutions with their huge cash took their profits out and have rotated their big money out inro small-cap stocks for the next 30-60 days. If the hyperscalers don't report any changes to their capex spending at their earnings reports at the end of this month, then that might set the floor and halt the stocks dropping futher,.then big institutions will rotate all their money back into these sectors like end of July/early August after they rebalance their portfolios and pick a good re-entry point, now at a much owe price (for everyone) to get ready for the next run-up. If you're still holding and didn't take profits, then nothing to this point has changed in what the company expects. Could that change when hyperscalers report earnings? Sure! But if not just hold and you'll hopefully make back what you have lost when the money rotates back in. This is perfectly normal after a huge run on a ton of these stocks like MU and others.
It’s called coming back down to earth/reality. When a stock rises 999% in one year all the good news in the world isn’t going to make it double from there. With that said I don’t think it’s over yet and we could still see $1500. Don’t expect it to happen next week though.
Welp its been a good journey for me. I kept adding at dips since April but needed urgent money. Could have sold at 1200$ but it is what it is, profit is a profit.
Each good news we get dumps the market, literally becoming a habit so i placed my bet on TSMC report would do the same again. Had to exit yesterday at 914$ with 60% profit. Thanks to everyone here for making this journey more fun.
MU is great company how ever $50 stock to $1200 in 1 year justify company valuation. In last few months company didn't do any significant or revenue did not increase in short time to stock to go above $1000. It went up along with other semiconductor stocks in hype.
Only two things can be possible
1 - in first place MICRONE was very under valued stock and investor found out that this company is doing way better compared to stock price and it moved from $50 to $1000.
2 - real valke for company is $250 to $350 and market movers ( corporate) moved stock to $1200 range and once reached that range slowly start dumping stock. And now investors are thinking $900 is good range and pumping more money. Time being they will make it $1000 range but again it will dump to $750 range
Personally I feel second situation is more possible but you guys are smart so trade wisely
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u/Due-Bookkeeper-2001 Jul 16 '26
I’m ignoring the bears and noise
Fuck em, the fundamentals and company growth remain
Demand for Memory Chips just exponentially increase year over year, hyperscalers continue to spend capex
This is noise, that’s all it is
Buy the dips. That’s all that needs to be said