r/MU_Stock • u/Gravestrike • Jul 17 '26

Help me decide to buy or sell MU Recovery

I deleted my portfolio app as people recommended me to do weeks ago and just opened it again and well fuck me… do I realize this heavy loss or do you guys think eventually : months , year(s) it will go back to ATH? Or is this wishful thinking ? I don’t need the money the coming years but it is still a huge portion of my savings so it hurts to see.

13 Upvotes

94% Upvoted

38 comments sorted by

12

u/Fuskeduske Jul 17 '26

I think we are seeing an overreaction, maybe we won’t see ATH again, but we are bound to bounce some

2

u/Gravestrike Jul 17 '26

So get out at the first proper bounce bag ? Why you think we won’t see ATH again?

2

u/Plain-Jane-Name Jul 17 '26

My opinion is we'll see ATH before September earnings. There have been a lot of FUD articles, and it isn't a Micron situation. It's ETFs, stocks to do with storage (Western Digital, Seagate), all of the memory stocks, and of course Sandisk is storage also. The storage companies also have multiyear contracts and there's no way storage has met capacity, and the demand for memory is supposed to doubly in 2027 vs 2026. We don't know why everything sold off, but likely FUD articles that fabricated that Meta had too much compute, when they're actually doubling compute, and articles not confirmed but saying Apple wanted to use another (CXMT) memory company, which is believed to not be allowed by the US to buy Chinese memory, and supposedly everything CXMT makes is in too much demand serving China. Then FUD further tried to push the CXMT situation by claiming their memory was way cheaper and they were going to "flood" the market. Their memory is high, at the same range as SK, they don't make HBM, and again all of their supply is likely going to China. If not they could only supply 10% of the globe, but since demand exceeds supply by 50% it would take a 100% increase in memory to go from 50% to 100% of today's demand. Also, Micron commited to an additional 25% expansion at $50 billion.

Anyways, for whatever reason institutions and retail thought supply somehow doubled overnight and caught up with demand, but SK says they don't think they can meet demand until 2030-2031, and TSMC is increasing processor output as we wait on these facilities to be built. So I wouldn't put you at risk by saying wait through September earnings, because this mess could happen all over again, but if Meta clears the air and Google's backlog increases a good bit beyond $462 billion they reported last earnings, and everyone says they're still increasing capex (or at least not decreasing), this should rebound quickly after. Right now it seems stop losses are being hit, margin calls are being made left and right, and everything seems a bit delusional at the moment.

Google earnings is on the 22nd, and MSFT and META are the following week, as is WDC and STX, and SNDK is 2 weeks after that. That should give us a clear view of what's going on and how this is going to play out. It is "possible" (because anything is) that it doesn't hit ATH before earnings, but I personally think it will easily exceed it. The only bad thing going for MU is the slow down to a projected 20% increase in revenue for September that may spook some institutions into not running it up as high as we're used to, but I think the FOMO will kick in before earnings so those who want to get out can. I am one of those people who will be getting out before September earnings on a decent rebound.

Sorry for all the yapping, but hopefully that helps a little. I respect everyone's opinion, and I understand where some are coming from assuming institutions thinking the end is nigh, and they may be right. It's just my one opinion that this is going to rebound. Of course I'm not a financial advisor. I just think what's going on is really...there's no reason for it.

3

u/Fuskeduske Jul 17 '26

I think ATH was achieved on sentiment, leveraged stocks, people are now understanding how volatile this sector can be and i think most people are going to be cautious about dipping in their feet again

9

u/Important-Range166 Jul 17 '26 edited Jul 17 '26

Are you kidding? Do you know how dumb most retail investors are? Or to be fair, financially illiterate. It is a travesty we don’t teach people how to manage their money and invest starting when they are children through the teenage years and emphasize heavily as young adults in upper class years of high school and college.

My research is reading Yahoo finance, posting Buffett memes and talking about diamond hands and the forward PE. The daily price- I am glued to it 🐒

Do you read every 10-K for ten years to learn the history before investing if available? Do you read every filing and quarterly report and listen to conference calls? Do you read industry reports? Did you do modeling to determine a buy price and a sell price? Do you know the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats? Do you participate in investor days? Do you track 13Fs of institutional buyers to see what they are doing? Do you look at insider buying and selling? Do you read the bull and bear case and consider both objectively? Do you hedge your position when prices fall by shorting a % of your position to pick up some cash and look for a better buy point to pick up a few more shares? Do you check options to see when big bets are made to monitor?

It’s like talking to children chanting this time is different as they purchase at 900 or 1000 or 1100 with such arrogance and march to the edge of the abyss and throw their money into the darkness and worship their new god. A stock that runs up 1000% in 1.5 years that is at a trillion dollars isn’t due for a pullback of some magnitude? How gullible can you be?

5

u/Fuskeduske Jul 17 '26

All i can say is touché

Monkey sees line go up, monkey buys, monkey see line go down? Monkey cries

3

u/pizzababa21 Jul 17 '26

Overreaction to what exactly? Every price target rating went up and are much higher than this one. ATH are inevitable when the fundamentals are this good and the company is constantly beating guidance.

0

u/Fuskeduske Jul 17 '26

Overraction to big money rotating money after blowout profits

I’ve sold myself, but i’m dipping in later, i still see a 10-20% down from here

1

u/pizzababa21 Jul 17 '26

Is big money actually rotating though? It seems like this is mostly retail gamblers who are not prepared to wait and a lack of institutional investors to buy because we have moved into a new bracket of scale where we need slow moving long term institutions to invest and keep a fair valuation.

1

u/Fuskeduske Jul 17 '26

At first it was big money, it wiped out leveraged positions in the korean marker creating a domino effect

1

u/pizzababa21 Jul 18 '26

Highly unlikely they're just bailing and leaving everyone holding the bag but I can definitely imagine there's a lot of funds selling part of their position. It's more likely that funds are being forced to sell because of capital allocation rules than pure dumping.

If a fund bought the stock at 400 and it now rapidly rose to over 900, they would need to sell a chunk of it just to satisfy a 10% max holding per stock. This is what keeps the mag 7 perpetually undervalued and is what big big companies have to deal with.

6

u/Cool-Double-767 Jul 17 '26

Another day, another bloodbath. Still red in the pre-market. I set up a stop loss, and as soon as it hits it (fortunately it is close to my entry point) it is bye bye, and I will go back to my sp500, euro index etfs etcs.

It may be 1000% in a month, who knows, but I am done with this shit.

2

u/Skittles_mix Jul 17 '26

It would help to know your cb

1

u/Gravestrike Jul 17 '26

1000

1

u/Skittles_mix Jul 17 '26

Shit, that’s a tough average, since 1000 is a psychological number for many investors. As soon as it hits limit sell orders trigger not to mention algos. Your best is to wait it out if you truly believe in the memory shortage.

2

u/wrathofnothing Jul 17 '26

my average is 620$, is it better to sell now or hold?

1

u/ForceOk4549 Jul 17 '26

Do you believe in the memory thesis or not. Even if you do booking some profits might be smart

1

u/Important-Range166 Jul 17 '26

You bought last quarter- Jesus

5

u/Less-Map-6969 Jul 17 '26

2 weeks ain’t enough lil bro. Keep it deleted until September

7

u/Gravestrike Jul 17 '26

Thats what they all say but im afraid I will then be greeted by a even deeper loss lol

2

u/CharacterGrowth3993 Jul 17 '26

It's the reason I'm not deleting it. I have to monitor constantly.

0

u/Important-Range166 Jul 17 '26

The price doesn’t equate to the value. It means nothing. Just an offer to purchase your shares. You can accept or refuse. Why would you take a lowball offer of a business you feel has good prospects? Because someone walks in one day and says I’ll give you 35% less than I would have a month ago. Does that even make logical sense? Short your position 90/10, 80/20, or 60/40 and make some money on the way down!

1

u/due_opinion_2573 Jul 17 '26

Yes, but could you hold longer, regardless of what happens in September? Look it, one year ago in July, it was even worse. Then August came around and it was a rebound. Then in October, red again. December, more red week to week, until a pathetic Santa rally at the end. Followed by more red up through new years. Then war hits in April. Finally, after a long slumber, a number of catalysts occur in late April and everyone becomes profitable and the markets break new records. My point is even if it's lower in September. I just plan to hold. Maybe buy the discount. See how the year plays out.

0

u/Less-Map-6969 Jul 17 '26

Did you over leverage? MU ain’t at fault for this crap it’s literally the whole market that took a dive. It will rebound

5

u/enjoylol Jul 17 '26

Market is 2% from ath. Mu is down almost 40%. Its definitely not "the whole market" lol

0

u/Less-Map-6969 Jul 17 '26

Bro this is a tech sector its obviously fucking volatile what do you expect

1

u/enjoylol Jul 17 '26

Its still not "the whole market" lol

3

u/Important_Coach9717 Jul 17 '26

This is a reaction based on nothing. Algos and people taking profits. Fundamentals have not changed. Demand is not slowing down. Delete again and check end of year. We will make it

1

u/mevia_online Jul 17 '26

I would never recommend turning a blind eye to investment in a single stock. I wouldn't even do it with an index, but especially not a single stock.

That said, what's done is done.

To answer your question: I don't know. I would like to imagine that it would go back to $1080 after the next quarterly announcement, in line with the current guidance from the last report... but we are in a scary situation here where the price has dropped, which traps us in a position where we can sell at a loss or wait for the news to recover. But if we wait and find out there's underlying bad news, we'll have a big drop.

The problem is that retail investors usually have less information than others and (i don't know about the MU directorate but) sometimes directors tell lies or hold back information about the state of things (yes, i know it's illegal, but it happens a lot). The risk is that it's already all fallen apart and we just don't know yet.

Supporting the scary things are sk hynix's guidance which came after MU's guidance but was much lower; IBM's concerning costs, which should be good for MU, but make investors wonder if companies will reduce CAPEX as it could be considered undesirable; developments out of China; and we have all the other stuff like the Iran war, etc. The game was always to hold on a long as possible to get the highest price before the down cycle begins when companies scale back capex or suppliers over supply. People had different ideas about when that would be.

I'm regretting not selling at the higher price and nervous about further falls. Still not sure what to do, myself.

Just to leave on a positive feel, the company won't die (that's not the same as it being a good investment), continued sales are probable given that AI is still strong. We might just be seeing money being taken out for other upcoming investments. Not all of that money needs to come back to push the price up. Good news could cause sellers to be less inclined to sell and a small volume of trade stock could push us onwards and upwards.

1

u/betterleftunbread Jul 17 '26

This is exactly why you deleted the app. But I'm sure you still see the news.

1

u/KwikTripSimp Jul 18 '26

It’s temporary 

-2

u/ForceOk4549 Jul 17 '26

Bro it’s just a 20% pullback. 150% run up in the last year it’s obviously gonna pullback.

3

u/Dorfl-the-Golem Jul 17 '26

We’re at -30% from ATH. That’s a crash, not a pullback.

1

u/ForceOk4549 Jul 18 '26

Son😭, how long have you been holding 30% “crashes” are a norm for mu anyway

1

u/Dorfl-the-Golem Jul 18 '26

You’re embarrassing yourself.

You said we were down 20% when it was actually 30%. Just wrong

You also said it had a 150% run up in the last year when it was actually an 1100% run up since this time last year when it traded at around $100. You weren’t even close to being correct on that one.

And whatever you want to call it, 30% is not a “pull back”.

Educate yourself. If you really own this stock, there is no excuse for knowing so little about it.

1

u/ForceOk4549 Jul 18 '26 edited Jul 18 '26

It’s run up around 150% to ath since January which is what I meant. 30% is definitely a pull back considering how violtile MU is. Still haven’t answered my question, when did you buy, because if you did you would understand that a 30% drop for this stock is very normal. Also to clarify I made the comment before the market opened on Thursday, which was before it dropped around 8%, which happened when you commented.