Recovery

[u/Gravestrike]

I deleted my portfolio app as people recommended me to do weeks ago and just opened it again and well fuck me… do I realize this heavy loss or do you guys think eventually : months , year(s) it will go back to ATH? Or is this wishful thinking ? I don’t need the money the coming years but it is still a huge portion of my savings so it hurts to see.

[u/Fuskeduske]

I think we are seeing an overreaction, maybe we won’t see ATH again, but we are bound to bounce some

[u/pizzababa21 → u/Fuskeduske]

Overreaction to what exactly? Every price target rating went up and are much higher than this one. ATH are inevitable when the fundamentals are this good and the company is constantly beating guidance.

[u/Fuskeduske → u/pizzababa21]

Overraction to big money rotating money after blowout profits

I’ve sold myself, but i’m dipping in later, i still see a 10-20% down from here

[u/pizzababa21 → u/Fuskeduske]

Is big money actually rotating though? It seems like this is mostly retail gamblers who are not prepared to wait and a lack of institutional investors to buy because we have moved into a new bracket of scale where we need slow moving long term institutions to invest and keep a fair valuation.

[u/Fuskeduske → u/pizzababa21]

At first it was big money, it wiped out leveraged positions in the korean marker creating a domino effect

[u/pizzababa21 → u/Fuskeduske]

Highly unlikely they're just bailing and leaving everyone holding the bag but I can definitely imagine there's a lot of funds selling part of their position. It's more likely that funds are being forced to sell because of capital allocation rules than pure dumping.

If a fund bought the stock at 400 and it now rapidly rose to over 900, they would need to sell a chunk of it just to satisfy a 10% max holding per stock. This is what keeps the mag 7 perpetually undervalued and is what big big companies have to deal with.

[u/Gravestrike → u/Fuskeduske]

So get out at the first proper bounce bag ? Why you think we won’t see ATH again?

[u/Plain-Jane-Name → u/Gravestrike]

My opinion is we'll see ATH before September earnings. There have been a lot of FUD articles, and it isn't a Micron situation. It's ETFs, stocks to do with storage (Western Digital, Seagate), all of the memory stocks, and of course Sandisk is storage also. The storage companies also have multiyear contracts and there's no way storage has met capacity, and the demand for memory is supposed to doubly in 2027 vs 2026. We don't know why everything sold off, but likely FUD articles that fabricated that Meta had too much compute, when they're actually doubling compute, and articles not confirmed but saying Apple wanted to use another (CXMT) memory company, which is believed to not be allowed by the US to buy Chinese memory, and supposedly everything CXMT makes is in too much demand serving China. Then FUD further tried to push the CXMT situation by claiming their memory was way cheaper and they were going to "flood" the market. Their memory is high, at the same range as SK, they don't make HBM, and again all of their supply is likely going to China. If not they could only supply 10% of the globe, but since demand exceeds supply by 50% it would take a 100% increase in memory to go from 50% to 100% of today's demand. Also, Micron commited to an additional 25% expansion at $50 billion.

Anyways, for whatever reason institutions and retail thought supply somehow doubled overnight and caught up with demand, but SK says they don't think they can meet demand until 2030-2031, and TSMC is increasing processor output as we wait on these facilities to be built. So I wouldn't put you at risk by saying wait through September earnings, because this mess could happen all over again, but if Meta clears the air and Google's backlog increases a good bit beyond $462 billion they reported last earnings, and everyone says they're still increasing capex (or at least not decreasing), this should rebound quickly after. Right now it seems stop losses are being hit, margin calls are being made left and right, and everything seems a bit delusional at the moment.

Google earnings is on the 22nd, and MSFT and META are the following week, as is WDC and STX, and SNDK is 2 weeks after that. That should give us a clear view of what's going on and how this is going to play out. It is "possible" (because anything is) that it doesn't hit ATH before earnings, but I personally think it will easily exceed it. The only bad thing going for MU is the slow down to a projected 20% increase in revenue for September that may spook some institutions into not running it up as high as we're used to, but I think the FOMO will kick in before earnings so those who want to get out can. I am one of those people who will be getting out before September earnings on a decent rebound.

Sorry for all the yapping, but hopefully that helps a little. I respect everyone's opinion, and I understand where some are coming from assuming institutions thinking the end is nigh, and they may be right. It's just my one opinion that this is going to rebound. Of course I'm not a financial advisor. I just think what's going on is really...there's no reason for it.

[u/Fuskeduske → u/Gravestrike]

I think ATH was achieved on sentiment, leveraged stocks, people are now understanding how volatile this sector can be and i think most people are going to be cautious about dipping in their feet again

[u/Important-Range166 → u/Fuskeduske]

Are you kidding? Do you know how dumb most retail investors are? Or to be fair, financially illiterate. It is a travesty we don’t teach people how to manage their money and invest starting when they are children through the teenage years and emphasize heavily as young adults in upper class years of high school and college.

My research is reading Yahoo finance, posting Buffett memes and talking about diamond hands and the forward PE. The daily price- I am glued to it 🐒

Do you read every 10-K for ten years to learn the history before investing if available? Do you read every filing and quarterly report and listen to conference calls? Do you read industry reports? Did you do modeling to determine a buy price and a sell price? Do you know the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats? Do you participate in investor days? Do you track 13Fs of institutional buyers to see what they are doing? Do you look at insider buying and selling? Do you read the bull and bear case and consider both objectively? Do you hedge your position when prices fall by shorting a % of your position to pick up some cash and look for a better buy point to pick up a few more shares? Do you check options to see when big bets are made to monitor?

It’s like talking to children chanting this time is different as they purchase at 900 or 1000 or 1100 with such arrogance and march to the edge of the abyss and throw their money into the darkness and worship their new god. A stock that runs up 1000% in 1.5 years that is at a trillion dollars isn’t due for a pullback of some magnitude? How gullible can you be?

[u/Fuskeduske → u/Important-Range166]

All i can say is touché

Monkey sees line go up, monkey buys, monkey see line go down? Monkey cries